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Except "the experts" were predicting terrible things immediately, not later on - remember the punishment budget necessity? Inflation "massively outstripping wag
by cmdkeen 10y ago
Except "the experts" were predicting terrible things immediately, not later on - remember the punishment budget necessity?
Inflation "massively outstripping wages" is just over the Bank of England's target, the one it has been massively under for the past 5 years. The drop in sterling doesn't lead to sustained inflationary pressure. Wages are also picking up as well, though not in the public sector.
The "massive increase in race related crime" is also far more complex than newspaper headlines give credit to. The big headlines came from the immediate aftermath 4 days where crimes reported to a website went from 54 to to 85 - i.e. 57%. The police statement on this made the point that it was only a single source that they weren't seeing an increase in community tension - guess what the press went with? The police statistics do bear out an overall increase since the previous year, but by a much lower margin - and in line with year on year increases.
The key point though is that in the UK hate crimes are defined as when the victim, or any other person, perceives a crime to be a hate crime - thanks to the legacy of Macpherson. Reported hate crimes have been trending up for years, partly because there has been a massive cultural shift in the police to record them and on people to report them. So, as with all statistics, it is complicated - did more people perceive an increase in hate crimes because they were being told that they were spiking? Has Britain become a more intolerant place or are we just recording better how intolerant we've been for a while? The Civitas report on this makes for interesting reading http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/hatecrimethefactsbehindtheheadlines.pdf http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/hatecrimethefactsbeh...
- mrcarrot 10y agoSurely "experts" were predicting things would change immediately _after the UK leaves the EU_. Which as the GP said, hasn't happened yet.
- randiantech 10y agoDidnt the experts also said that UK not joining the Euro was going to be a catastrophe?
- JamesMcMinn 10y ago> Except "the experts" were predicting terrible things immediately, not later on - remember the punishment budget necessity? As a matter of fact, I do remember the "punishment budget", the one which was mocked up for 2019-20 [1], around the time that the UK would actually leave the EU. No one expected the UK economy to crash the day of the referendum. The projections are all projections for AFTER we have left the EU, not before. The reason exports get that title is because they know enough to at least make their projections from when the changes actually happen. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/revolt-of-65-tory-mps-over-osborne-tax-rises https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/revolt-of-6...
- cmdkeen 10y agoThe language around the budget was "emergency" and "in the event of a vote to leave". You are correct the IFS analysis was about post leaving the EU, that was certainly not the spin the remain campaign placed on it. Saying "no one expected the UK economy to crash the day of" is a little odd - the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee certainly seemed to think they needed to act in the immediate aftermath of the vote with the interest rate cut which is now looking not such a great idea.
- vidarh 10y agoRemember that we had a prime minister that lied and said he'd invoke Article 50 immediately? All the predictions were based on a bunch of promises by certain people to make rash, idiotic changes immediatly after the vote. Promises that were thankfully broken. Most of the conditions that these kind of predictions were made under changed the moment Cameron resigned.