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I'll say what I said before the referendum: the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. Th

by barrkel 10y ago

I'll say what I said before the referendum: the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. There must be a price, an ongoing cost. Britain is trapped with a forked strategy: it can go the Singapore route or the supplicant route. The two are incompatible and neither of them is realistically feasible. The Singapore route is what hard Brexiteers want but there's no mandate for it, and nor is there plurality of votes in it. The supplicant route is what Brexiteers will attack, and there probably isn't a majority of votes in the Tory party for it. The UK's political landscape are in the wrong shape for the negotiation to come. Parties would need to be configured into those that are split according to negotiating strategy. Since they aren't, the fork will weaken Britain's negotiation throughout; every attempt to go down one road will face extreme resistance from those who prefer the other path. Britain is screwed, AFAICT. Myself, I'm aiming at November or so to get out.

mdekkers 10y ago
the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. There must be a price, an ongoing cost. I don't understand why this wasn't a centerpiece of the Remain campaign.
- taejo 10y ago
  Because it makes the EU look evil, and remaining looks like submitting to bullies.
  - barrkel 10y ago
    The EU is a protectionist island in a global economy filled with large ambivalent actors. It's less evil, more like self-preservation, or an immune system. There has to be surface tension to retain mass, and there has to be barriers because that's it's raison d'etre.
    - taejo 10y ago
      I understand the game theory, but I think politically, it would be easy to spin this as the EU being a bully who punishes you if you don't play with them, and many voters would prefer to tell such a bully to bugger off than to play along (indeed, a lot of the Leave campaign was already about how Brussels bullies Brits into doing things they don't want).
- Nursie 10y ago
  To echo the other poster - because it looks like the actions of an empire-building bully. It looks like spite.
- TheCondor 10y ago
  Because, as it was also seen in the US election, it wasn't possible for them to win. It will be interesting to watch, nothing has been negotiated, that's the irony, nobody even knows what they voted for. I can't imagine Europe making it easy though.
  - taejo 10y ago
    I don't see how it was impossible for Remain to win. There was <4% margin; different turnout demographics could have swung it. I can imagine holding it a week earlier or later could have led to a different result.
therpe1 10y ago
One thing that Brexit will prove is whether the EU is in fact the latest manifestation of the German Empire[1]. If this is the case I would think that Germany (and basically France) will in fact make Britain pay a very steep, steep cost. Empires absolutely must punish rebellious provinces... unless they're not really empires. The funny thing is that this "steep, steep" cost requires that the EU powers do basically nothing but give Britain exactly what it wants. There will be no bombing of London or cross-Channel invasion. All the EU really has to do is forcefully exclude Britain (meaning no customs union) while maintaining relatively open borders with Britain. Over time this restricted flow of goods and services but free flow of people should sort itself out as the best and the brightest individuals and businesses leave Britain for the much larger market of the EU. This "hinterazation" of Britain will be absolutely devastating to a country that, frankly, doesn't have anything to offer but it's people and some choice real-estate. So Singapore is a very optimistic model for Britain's future -- I'm much more thinking Mexico. But it will be very interesting to see if France and Germany actually do "hold the line." [1] http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/germany-s-triumph-ruins-war-how-new-european-empire-was-built http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/germany-s-trium...
concinds 10y ago
> * the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. There must be a price, an ongoing cost* Which is a symptom among many of how grossly dysfunctional and fragile the EU is. It's also compounded by the TARGET-2 mess and Germany's obligations to the South through rescue packages. Commenters above talking about the EU being a "voluntary alliance" conveniently obfuscate this.

by barrkel 10y ago

mdekkers 10y ago

the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. There must be a price, an ongoing cost. I don't understand why this wasn't a centerpiece of the Remain campaign.

taejo 10y ago
Because it makes the EU look evil, and remaining looks like submitting to bullies.
- barrkel 10y ago
  The EU is a protectionist island in a global economy filled with large ambivalent actors. It's less evil, more like self-preservation, or an immune system. There has to be surface tension to retain mass, and there has to be barriers because that's it's raison d'etre.
  - taejo 10y ago
    I understand the game theory, but I think politically, it would be easy to spin this as the EU being a bully who punishes you if you don't play with them, and many voters would prefer to tell such a bully to bugger off than to play along (indeed, a lot of the Leave campaign was already about how Brussels bullies Brits into doing things they don't want).
Nursie 10y ago
To echo the other poster - because it looks like the actions of an empire-building bully. It looks like spite.
TheCondor 10y ago
Because, as it was also seen in the US election, it wasn't possible for them to win. It will be interesting to watch, nothing has been negotiated, that's the irony, nobody even knows what they voted for. I can't imagine Europe making it easy though.
- taejo 10y ago
  I don't see how it was impossible for Remain to win. There was <4% margin; different turnout demographics could have swung it. I can imagine holding it a week earlier or later could have led to a different result.

therpe1 10y ago

One thing that Brexit will prove is whether the EU is in fact the latest manifestation of the German Empire[1]. If this is the case I would think that Germany (and basically France) will in fact make Britain pay a very steep, steep cost. Empires absolutely must punish rebellious provinces... unless they're not really empires. The funny thing is that this "steep, steep" cost requires that the EU powers do basically nothing but give Britain exactly what it wants. There will be no bombing of London or cross-Channel invasion. All the EU really has to do is forcefully exclude Britain (meaning no customs union) while maintaining relatively open borders with Britain. Over time this restricted flow of goods and services but free flow of people should sort itself out as the best and the brightest individuals and businesses leave Britain for the much larger market of the EU. This "hinterazation" of Britain will be absolutely devastating to a country that, frankly, doesn't have anything to offer but it's people and some choice real-estate. So Singapore is a very optimistic model for Britain's future -- I'm much more thinking Mexico. But it will be very interesting to see if France and Germany actually do "hold the line." [1] http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/germany-s-triumph-ruins-war-how-new-european-empire-was-built http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/germany-s-trium...

concinds 10y ago

> * the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. There must be a price, an ongoing cost* Which is a symptom among many of how grossly dysfunctional and fragile the EU is. It's also compounded by the TARGET-2 mess and Germany's obligations to the South through rescue packages. Commenters above talking about the EU being a "voluntary alliance" conveniently obfuscate this.