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These are pretty much the same forecasts Switzerland and Norway were supposed to face when they rejected to join the EU... people losing jobs, Swiss Franc falli

by bontoJR 10y ago

These are pretty much the same forecasts Switzerland and Norway were supposed to face when they rejected to join the EU... people losing jobs, Swiss Franc falling, export collapsing, etc... well, it went a little bit in a different way. OFC leaving is totally a different thing from not being in at all, but still... there are going to be pro and cons, but the economy will adapt as happened in Switzerland and Norway. Some will gain, some will lose, but the general picture can be valid only in 3-5 years after the Kingdom is out, so not before 2022.

lhopki01 10y ago
What? Norway is a member of the EEA and Switzerland has bilateral agreements that come to the same thing. Nothing changed for them they just don't get a say in the rules.
- TheArcane 10y ago
  And they still have to foot the membership fees.
hocuspocus 10y ago
The UK is putting itself in a much tougher situation, this is absolutely not comparable to Switzerland and Norway. And some of the forecasts about Switzerland turned out very real. We have to agree and comply with Europe on most things, without much bargaining power. And the EURCHF swings can literally put businesses to the ground overnight.
- folli 10y ago
  This could also be construed as the EU acting as a hegemony and abusing their economic power to force smaller countries to accept their terms. The same can be currently observed when some EU exponents demand that the Brits get punished for pulling out.
  - prodmerc 10y ago
    Yeah, no shit, that's the whole point of a strong economic union.
    - cat199 10y ago
      And for breaking out of one..
  - Scarblac 10y ago
    It's almost as if its own interests come first.
cygx 10y ago
Note that Norway and Switzerland accept freedom of movement. Switzerland tried to introduce immigration quotas for EU workers, but that got scrapped a couple of months ago.
tobltobs 10y ago
Note that Switzerland last year had a similar situation after the MEI referendum and they prefered not to pull the plug on the bilateral treaties.
vidarh 10y ago
For Norway's case that is a meaningless statement. Via the EEA, Norway accepted pretty much all of the EU with the exception of the Common Agricultural Policy and parts of the fishing policies, and the Euro. Unlike the UK, Norway is part of Schengen, and outside of the areas mentioned above, Norway has fewer special considerations and opt-outs from EU directives than the UK has. If the UK negotiates the same deal that Norway has, the UK will probably do ok, but that would in many areas mean tighter integration into the EU than currently. E.g. joining Schengen, dropping various opt-outs etc. It would also mean maintaining full freedom of movement. I'd love to see that happen if only to hear the whining from the Leaver crowd, many of whom held up the Norwegian model as an alternative to convince people to vote Leave.
s_dev 10y ago
Norway and Switzerland are effectively EU members in everything but name -- they pay in to the single market and accept the four freedoms. They both have very good reason for not joining EU proper - Norway has a giant fishing industry relative to other industries and Switzerland wishes to preserve her neutrality.

by bontoJR 10y ago

lhopki01 10y ago

What? Norway is a member of the EEA and Switzerland has bilateral agreements that come to the same thing. Nothing changed for them they just don't get a say in the rules.

TheArcane 10y ago
And they still have to foot the membership fees.

hocuspocus 10y ago

The UK is putting itself in a much tougher situation, this is absolutely not comparable to Switzerland and Norway. And some of the forecasts about Switzerland turned out very real. We have to agree and comply with Europe on most things, without much bargaining power. And the EURCHF swings can literally put businesses to the ground overnight.

folli 10y ago
This could also be construed as the EU acting as a hegemony and abusing their economic power to force smaller countries to accept their terms. The same can be currently observed when some EU exponents demand that the Brits get punished for pulling out.
- prodmerc 10y ago
  Yeah, no shit, that's the whole point of a strong economic union.
  - cat199 10y ago
    And for breaking out of one..
- Scarblac 10y ago
  It's almost as if its own interests come first.

cygx 10y ago

Note that Norway and Switzerland accept freedom of movement. Switzerland tried to introduce immigration quotas for EU workers, but that got scrapped a couple of months ago.

tobltobs 10y ago

Note that Switzerland last year had a similar situation after the MEI referendum and they prefered not to pull the plug on the bilateral treaties.

vidarh 10y ago

For Norway's case that is a meaningless statement. Via the EEA, Norway accepted pretty much all of the EU with the exception of the Common Agricultural Policy and parts of the fishing policies, and the Euro. Unlike the UK, Norway is part of Schengen, and outside of the areas mentioned above, Norway has fewer special considerations and opt-outs from EU directives than the UK has. If the UK negotiates the same deal that Norway has, the UK will probably do ok, but that would in many areas mean tighter integration into the EU than currently. E.g. joining Schengen, dropping various opt-outs etc. It would also mean maintaining full freedom of movement. I'd love to see that happen if only to hear the whining from the Leaver crowd, many of whom held up the Norwegian model as an alternative to convince people to vote Leave.

s_dev 10y ago

Norway and Switzerland are effectively EU members in everything but name -- they pay in to the single market and accept the four freedoms. They both have very good reason for not joining EU proper - Norway has a giant fishing industry relative to other industries and Switzerland wishes to preserve her neutrality.