4 ms·

In terms of them predicting markets with search data lots of commentators are saying no way, but I strongly disagree. Google can predict flu-like illnesses wit

by aresant 16y ago

In terms of them predicting markets with search data lots of commentators are saying no way, but I strongly disagree. Google can predict flu-like illnesses within 92% accuracy of CDC data which is dervied from labratory testing. Furthermore trading stocks seems to me to be a behavior that would be easy to predict through Google's "intent-based" algorithms used for serving advertising. EG - For instance knowing how many searches there are a day for "is AAPL overpriced" vs. "is AAPL underpriced" you'd have data that would begin to correlate to market value - with enough data points you could make some pretty darn educated guesses about what a given stock would do. Toss in a hundred PHDs, a few dozen traders from the greediest depths of wallstreet and the question shouldn't be CAN they do it, but WHEN will they do it. Reference: http://pagingdrgupta.blogs.cnn.com/2010/05/18/how-accurate-is-google-flu-trends/ http://pagingdrgupta.blogs.cnn.com/2010/05/18/how-accurate-i...

chollida1 16y ago
> For instance knowing how many searches there are a day for "is AAPL overpriced" vs. "is AAPL underpriced" you'd have data that would begin to correlate to market value - with enough data points you could make some pretty darn educated guesses about what a given stock would do. You may be right but the only thing that really moves the market is the large institutional funds. None of these funds are going to do a google search for "Is apple overpriced" and then say OMG we've got to sell apple now.
- Create 16y ago
  Fact: some non-US companies explicitly forbid their people to search using google, especially patents through google's service.
  - paulgb 16y ago
    Interesting fact, happen to have a source?
    - Create 16y ago
      NDA, but remains a fact, nevertheless...
  - nkohari 16y ago
    Fact: if you provide no documentation and use hand-wavy terms like "some non-US companies," your speculation can sound much more like factual information.
- illumin8 16y ago
  You're right of course, institutional traders are not searching Google or Yahoo Answers for "should I buy or sell AAPL?" However - strong analytics could tell you some interesting habits if you analyze search strings coming from IP blocks known to be used by said institutional traders. For example, I imagine institutional traders do a lot of research on companies before taking a position in them - this research might show up in search analytics data and Google traders could place a position before the institutional traders do. Would this be considered illegal by the SEC? I have no idea, but I could definitely see Google doing this.

by aresant 16y ago

chollida1 16y ago

> For instance knowing how many searches there are a day for "is AAPL overpriced" vs. "is AAPL underpriced" you'd have data that would begin to correlate to market value - with enough data points you could make some pretty darn educated guesses about what a given stock would do. You may be right but the only thing that really moves the market is the large institutional funds. None of these funds are going to do a google search for "Is apple overpriced" and then say OMG we've got to sell apple now.

Create 16y ago
Fact: some non-US companies explicitly forbid their people to search using google, especially patents through google's service.
- paulgb 16y ago
  Interesting fact, happen to have a source?
  - Create 16y ago
    NDA, but remains a fact, nevertheless...
- nkohari 16y ago
  Fact: if you provide no documentation and use hand-wavy terms like "some non-US companies," your speculation can sound much more like factual information.
illumin8 16y ago
You're right of course, institutional traders are not searching Google or Yahoo Answers for "should I buy or sell AAPL?" However - strong analytics could tell you some interesting habits if you analyze search strings coming from IP blocks known to be used by said institutional traders. For example, I imagine institutional traders do a lot of research on companies before taking a position in them - this research might show up in search analytics data and Google traders could place a position before the institutional traders do. Would this be considered illegal by the SEC? I have no idea, but I could definitely see Google doing this.