6 ms·

I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla. I think Tesla will sell millions of Model 3. Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to

by flexie 10y ago

I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla. I think Tesla will sell millions of Model 3. Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit? Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia.

chronicx0 10y ago
> I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla. Jesus Christ, you really bought into the Tesla hype.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
antisthenes 10y ago
I'm with you 100%. If my basic needs like housing and healthcare were already met (unfortunately they aren't), my next purchase would probably be a Tesla or a Solar/Powerwall combo for the house, or both.
radiorental 10y ago
> Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia. Sincerely, and with all due respect, this is a false analogy. What happened to Nokia was pretty much self inflicted. Mismanagement, competing empires, complacency. Apple did not start shipping low end brick phones and eat Nokia's market. Post '08 bailout automotive manufacturers are lean and hungry (for the most part) Furthermore, the 'traditional' car market, while slow to move, is not far behind. And in some cases is taking a longer view. E.g. Ford is going straight to Level 4 in 2022. Forget the ICE v. electric debate, that ship has sailed and everyone is heading to EV. The real battle will be to produce the safest self driving product. I am long on TSLA, I expect them to do well however they are in a far riskier spot than Apple was when the iPhone dropped. They were healthy, profitable and experienced (+Jobs). TSLA is none of those. I'm not disagreeing with your sentiment. I just thought we were past the Apple analogies.
- jaimex2 10y ago
  I dont know... Tesla is currently training their driving AI using the existing fleet in shadow mode. How do you skip this step and go straight to level 4? They need months of tuning outside a lab, worldwide. A lot of car manufacturers still refuse to build an EV from the ground up. They are reusing an ICE platform and converting them to EVs. Mazda don't even acknowledge that they need to build EVs. https://electrek.co/2017/03/07/mazda-no-pressure-from-customers-to-make-electric-vehicles/ https://electrek.co/2017/03/07/mazda-no-pressure-from-custom... heh, I'm sorry. Musk is still alive and surpassed Jobs long ago now, he's up to his 5th disruptive successful company. Online Payment, Cars, Space, Solar roofs and AI beat shiny laptop and smartphone.
  - radiorental 10y ago
    I see car companies getting off the shelf solutions from companies like Nvidia, which is what is being trained in Tesla's today. And Nvidia have their own demo. I genuinely wonder who owns the algorithm... It actually makes sense to jump to level 4 from both a liability & design/platform perspective. The fact that Tesla is bleeding through the first few stages with driver-in-the-loop doesn't necessarily mean they get to maintain a competitive advantage long term. (Also, Mazda is a 2nd tier manufacturer, little resources, mostly Ford parts Inc drivetrain, engine and firmware) Finally, I appreciate the Musk fandom. As someone with a little skin in TSLA, I aim to take an objective view fwiw.
    - pmorici 10y ago
      That is no longer true with respect to Mazda.
      - radiorental 10y ago
        Good to know, just sold my '04 Mazda 6 which was pretty much all Ford. After looking it up I see that Ford reduced ownership from 1/3rd to 10% in '08. Thanks for the correction.
  - deleted 10y ago
NeutronBoy 10y ago
> Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit? None, but I would hazard a guess that's because if you want to buy a BMW, a Mercedes or an Audi, you don't need to. You can simply go and buy one!
- jkchu 10y ago
  But the closest thing to a $35k electric car from BMW, Mercedes, or Audi is BMW's i3 - which I think is targeting a different market.
  - bkanber 10y ago
    Don't forget about two car households. We have an x1 and an i3 as our commuter car. The i3 will eventually be replaced with a Tesla, the x1 will not.
  - NeutronBoy 10y ago
    Agreed, but it's not about the brand - it's just that in the market segment for a $35-40k mid-size sedan, there's not a whole lot of need to wait two years for a car, which is why it's so uncommon. The reason it doesn't happen to other manufacturers, is because although they have 3-4 year lead times on new models they produce, they're still continuously producing the current models
  - ryanmonroe 10y ago
    Mercedes has the $40k B-Class electric car.
    - cjrp 10y ago
      With a 124 mile range [http://www.mercedes-benz.co.uk/content/unitedkingdom/mpc/mpc_unitedkingdom_website/en/home_mpc/passengercars/home/new_cars/models/b-class/w242/advice_sales/technical-data.html http://www.mercedes-benz.co.uk/content/unitedkingdom/mpc/mpc...].
coryfklein 10y ago
How about retiring 2-5 years early? That's about what you get if you invest the $35k instead...
- Pxtl 10y ago
  https://xkcd.com/947/ https://xkcd.com/947/
  - bkanber 10y ago
    Ten years is short. Thirty years at 6% gives you $200k, for instance.
    - Ntrails 10y ago
      what? Not on $1k it doesn't. 1.06^30 is like 5.5 ish? Unless you mean on saving 1k pa which is not what they are talking about, and means you're very much changing the game (and apparently not derisking towards retirement)
      - sidegrid 10y ago
        35k?
      - bkanber 10y ago
        On $35k, the price of a Tesla, which is what prompted that xkcd link
        Ntrails 10y ago
        Ah, that makes more sense. Sorry!
  - alister 10y ago
    Here's another illustration of how our intuition about compound interest can be really wrong: Futurama scene where Fry has been transported to the year 3000 and he still has his ATM card: The bank teller checks Fry's bank balance. She says, "You had 93 cents in your account in 2000. With an average interest rate of 2.25% compounded for 1000 years . . . that brings your balance to $4.3 billion dollars." The math is correct. Plug those numbers into the compound interest formula, Pn = P0 (1 + r/100)^n, and you really do get $4.3 billion. Your gut feeling is that even with 93 cents, you could retire rich. Not a billionaire, but comfy. It ain't so. In 50 years, you'd have $2.83. And even that $2 gain would be wiped out by a single monthly banking fee :-). In 400 years, $6820. My intuition told me that I should be in the millions by then. Wasn't even close. Didn't even account for taxes and inflation.
jordache 10y ago
you do realize market forces for a $600 consumer device is very different than a durable good that costs 50x more? Your anecdotal insight into how desirable the tesla is to you means nothing in terms of the market

by flexie 10y ago

chronicx0 10y ago

> I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla. Jesus Christ, you really bought into the Tesla hype.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

antisthenes 10y ago

I'm with you 100%. If my basic needs like housing and healthcare were already met (unfortunately they aren't), my next purchase would probably be a Tesla or a Solar/Powerwall combo for the house, or both.

radiorental 10y ago

> Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia. Sincerely, and with all due respect, this is a false analogy. What happened to Nokia was pretty much self inflicted. Mismanagement, competing empires, complacency. Apple did not start shipping low end brick phones and eat Nokia's market. Post '08 bailout automotive manufacturers are lean and hungry (for the most part) Furthermore, the 'traditional' car market, while slow to move, is not far behind. And in some cases is taking a longer view. E.g. Ford is going straight to Level 4 in 2022. Forget the ICE v. electric debate, that ship has sailed and everyone is heading to EV. The real battle will be to produce the safest self driving product. I am long on TSLA, I expect them to do well however they are in a far riskier spot than Apple was when the iPhone dropped. They were healthy, profitable and experienced (+Jobs). TSLA is none of those. I'm not disagreeing with your sentiment. I just thought we were past the Apple analogies.

jaimex2 10y ago
I dont know... Tesla is currently training their driving AI using the existing fleet in shadow mode. How do you skip this step and go straight to level 4? They need months of tuning outside a lab, worldwide. A lot of car manufacturers still refuse to build an EV from the ground up. They are reusing an ICE platform and converting them to EVs. Mazda don't even acknowledge that they need to build EVs. https://electrek.co/2017/03/07/mazda-no-pressure-from-customers-to-make-electric-vehicles/ https://electrek.co/2017/03/07/mazda-no-pressure-from-custom... heh, I'm sorry. Musk is still alive and surpassed Jobs long ago now, he's up to his 5th disruptive successful company. Online Payment, Cars, Space, Solar roofs and AI beat shiny laptop and smartphone.
- radiorental 10y ago
  I see car companies getting off the shelf solutions from companies like Nvidia, which is what is being trained in Tesla's today. And Nvidia have their own demo. I genuinely wonder who owns the algorithm... It actually makes sense to jump to level 4 from both a liability & design/platform perspective. The fact that Tesla is bleeding through the first few stages with driver-in-the-loop doesn't necessarily mean they get to maintain a competitive advantage long term. (Also, Mazda is a 2nd tier manufacturer, little resources, mostly Ford parts Inc drivetrain, engine and firmware) Finally, I appreciate the Musk fandom. As someone with a little skin in TSLA, I aim to take an objective view fwiw.
  - pmorici 10y ago
    That is no longer true with respect to Mazda.
    - radiorental 10y ago
      Good to know, just sold my '04 Mazda 6 which was pretty much all Ford. After looking it up I see that Ford reduced ownership from 1/3rd to 10% in '08. Thanks for the correction.
- deleted 10y ago

NeutronBoy 10y ago

> Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit? None, but I would hazard a guess that's because if you want to buy a BMW, a Mercedes or an Audi, you don't need to. You can simply go and buy one!

jkchu 10y ago
But the closest thing to a $35k electric car from BMW, Mercedes, or Audi is BMW's i3 - which I think is targeting a different market.
- bkanber 10y ago
  Don't forget about two car households. We have an x1 and an i3 as our commuter car. The i3 will eventually be replaced with a Tesla, the x1 will not.
- NeutronBoy 10y ago
  Agreed, but it's not about the brand - it's just that in the market segment for a $35-40k mid-size sedan, there's not a whole lot of need to wait two years for a car, which is why it's so uncommon. The reason it doesn't happen to other manufacturers, is because although they have 3-4 year lead times on new models they produce, they're still continuously producing the current models
- ryanmonroe 10y ago
  Mercedes has the $40k B-Class electric car.
  - cjrp 10y ago
    With a 124 mile range [http://www.mercedes-benz.co.uk/content/unitedkingdom/mpc/mpc_unitedkingdom_website/en/home_mpc/passengercars/home/new_cars/models/b-class/w242/advice_sales/technical-data.html http://www.mercedes-benz.co.uk/content/unitedkingdom/mpc/mpc...].

coryfklein 10y ago

How about retiring 2-5 years early? That's about what you get if you invest the $35k instead...

Pxtl 10y ago
https://xkcd.com/947/ https://xkcd.com/947/
- bkanber 10y ago
  Ten years is short. Thirty years at 6% gives you $200k, for instance.
  - Ntrails 10y ago
    what? Not on $1k it doesn't. 1.06^30 is like 5.5 ish? Unless you mean on saving 1k pa which is not what they are talking about, and means you're very much changing the game (and apparently not derisking towards retirement)
    - sidegrid 10y ago
      35k?
    - bkanber 10y ago
      On $35k, the price of a Tesla, which is what prompted that xkcd link
      - Ntrails 10y ago
        Ah, that makes more sense. Sorry!
- alister 10y ago
  Here's another illustration of how our intuition about compound interest can be really wrong: Futurama scene where Fry has been transported to the year 3000 and he still has his ATM card: The bank teller checks Fry's bank balance. She says, "You had 93 cents in your account in 2000. With an average interest rate of 2.25% compounded for 1000 years . . . that brings your balance to $4.3 billion dollars." The math is correct. Plug those numbers into the compound interest formula, Pn = P0 (1 + r/100)^n, and you really do get $4.3 billion. Your gut feeling is that even with 93 cents, you could retire rich. Not a billionaire, but comfy. It ain't so. In 50 years, you'd have $2.83. And even that $2 gain would be wiped out by a single monthly banking fee :-). In 400 years, $6820. My intuition told me that I should be in the millions by then. Wasn't even close. Didn't even account for taxes and inflation.

jordache 10y ago

you do realize market forces for a $600 consumer device is very different than a durable good that costs 50x more? Your anecdotal insight into how desirable the tesla is to you means nothing in terms of the market