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> Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything. I feel this is going to be the killer for them.

tuna-piano 10y ago
I would assume that a company investing billions would try very hard to make accurate sales estimates. I would be surprised if Tesla isn't surveying random people on the list, asking questions about their planned purchase and making estimates on the % that will end up cancelling.
- wfunction 10y ago
  > I would be surprised if Tesla isn't surveying random people on the list, asking questions about their planned purchase and making estimates on the % that will end up cancelling. I hope this would give an accurate result. People might say one thing and do something else when they have to actually shell out the money...
mpclark 10y ago
Is there a secondary market for places in the line?
MattRix 10y ago
Sure, there will be tons of people who cancel... but then there will also be tons of people who wanted to wait until the car was fully finished before signing up to get one. They'll be fine.
- harichinnan 10y ago
  This is the car version iphone, with people queuing up at the store days before the product is seen. I would believe they would stop production exactly at 400K cars, the current waiting list and start a new Model 4 waiting list. They have an air of exclusivity now with their current models. People still gawk at the sight of a Tesla. They would want to maintain that awe factor with Model 3 as well.
  - TheSmiddy 10y ago
    You're assuming a pure profit motive. Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world. The goal of Tesla is to make every new car sold electric, if they have to command 100% of the market they will do that, but they'd rather there be some competition.
    - MegaButts 10y ago
      > Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world. Maybe. Or maybe he's just saying that to make money. If Elon Musk ends up being completely successful in all of his endeavors, he will be the world's richest person by far. I suspect the truth is in the middle. He does want to change the world, but he's not willing to become poor (let's say a net worth of less than a million dollars) in the process. I have no problem with people getting rich, especially if they've earned it. But I see Elon Musk as a salesman more than anything, and he's damn good at it. He has generated a cult following of people who believe he is doing everything possible to save the planet. I am very skeptical that Elon Musk is half as great as he's made out to be on certain internet forums. I do not mean to say he is not an incredibly accomplished person, only to say that he does not live up to his self-generated hype. Of course time will tell. I truly hope he is as great as people make him out to be. But I just don't see it. Hopefully he makes me into a believer by delivering on all his promises.
      - jodrellblank 10y ago
        He's 79th richest person on the planet at age 45 with only Zuckerberg being richer while also being younger. He was foundationally involved in one of the biggest early online payment companies, one of few private rocket launch companies with NASA contracts, basically the single electric car company to change the world's views on electric vehicles, and a major solar / battery company. https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_musk_ask_me_anything_about_becoming_a/d94tbej/ https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu... https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_musk_ask_me_anything_about_becoming_a/d94u6zk/ https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu... https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2rgsan/i_am_elon_musk_ceocto_of_a_rocket_company_ama/cnfqjjk/ https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2rgsan/i_am_elon_musk... These are Reddit AMA quotes from a car company CEO. Do you really think it's likely that he can't code, can't handle electronics, doesn't understand rocketry, doesn't understand any engineering, hasn't earned any riches, and is just tricking everyone and leading a cult of personality? If the combined 50,000 employees of Tesla, SpaceX and Solar City can't deliver on his promises, that means he's a fraud? And if they can, it's solely down to his brilliance? If he's only half as great as he's made out to be, that's still 200th richest person in the world and head of only one or two international industry changing companies, but that's just not good enough for you? smh.
philmcc 10y ago
I disagree. The backlog will be so long, that there will almost certainly be someone who will pay for your spot in line. The same thing happened with the S and the X. "Flipping" a 3 won't be difficult.
- Tepix 10y ago
  That will be a good reason why people who choose not to buy a Model 3 for themselves will not cancel their preorder and sell it instead.

tuna-piano 10y ago

I would assume that a company investing billions would try very hard to make accurate sales estimates. I would be surprised if Tesla isn't surveying random people on the list, asking questions about their planned purchase and making estimates on the % that will end up cancelling.

wfunction 10y ago
> I would be surprised if Tesla isn't surveying random people on the list, asking questions about their planned purchase and making estimates on the % that will end up cancelling. I hope this would give an accurate result. People might say one thing and do something else when they have to actually shell out the money...

mpclark 10y ago

Is there a secondary market for places in the line?

MattRix 10y ago

Sure, there will be tons of people who cancel... but then there will also be tons of people who wanted to wait until the car was fully finished before signing up to get one. They'll be fine.

harichinnan 10y ago
This is the car version iphone, with people queuing up at the store days before the product is seen. I would believe they would stop production exactly at 400K cars, the current waiting list and start a new Model 4 waiting list. They have an air of exclusivity now with their current models. People still gawk at the sight of a Tesla. They would want to maintain that awe factor with Model 3 as well.
- TheSmiddy 10y ago
  You're assuming a pure profit motive. Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world. The goal of Tesla is to make every new car sold electric, if they have to command 100% of the market they will do that, but they'd rather there be some competition.
  - MegaButts 10y ago
    > Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world. Maybe. Or maybe he's just saying that to make money. If Elon Musk ends up being completely successful in all of his endeavors, he will be the world's richest person by far. I suspect the truth is in the middle. He does want to change the world, but he's not willing to become poor (let's say a net worth of less than a million dollars) in the process. I have no problem with people getting rich, especially if they've earned it. But I see Elon Musk as a salesman more than anything, and he's damn good at it. He has generated a cult following of people who believe he is doing everything possible to save the planet. I am very skeptical that Elon Musk is half as great as he's made out to be on certain internet forums. I do not mean to say he is not an incredibly accomplished person, only to say that he does not live up to his self-generated hype. Of course time will tell. I truly hope he is as great as people make him out to be. But I just don't see it. Hopefully he makes me into a believer by delivering on all his promises.
    - jodrellblank 10y ago
      He's 79th richest person on the planet at age 45 with only Zuckerberg being richer while also being younger. He was foundationally involved in one of the biggest early online payment companies, one of few private rocket launch companies with NASA contracts, basically the single electric car company to change the world's views on electric vehicles, and a major solar / battery company. https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_musk_ask_me_anything_about_becoming_a/d94tbej/ https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu... https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_musk_ask_me_anything_about_becoming_a/d94u6zk/ https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu... https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2rgsan/i_am_elon_musk_ceocto_of_a_rocket_company_ama/cnfqjjk/ https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2rgsan/i_am_elon_musk... These are Reddit AMA quotes from a car company CEO. Do you really think it's likely that he can't code, can't handle electronics, doesn't understand rocketry, doesn't understand any engineering, hasn't earned any riches, and is just tricking everyone and leading a cult of personality? If the combined 50,000 employees of Tesla, SpaceX and Solar City can't deliver on his promises, that means he's a fraud? And if they can, it's solely down to his brilliance? If he's only half as great as he's made out to be, that's still 200th richest person in the world and head of only one or two international industry changing companies, but that's just not good enough for you? smh.

philmcc 10y ago

I disagree. The backlog will be so long, that there will almost certainly be someone who will pay for your spot in line. The same thing happened with the S and the X. "Flipping" a 3 won't be difficult.

Tepix 10y ago
That will be a good reason why people who choose not to buy a Model 3 for themselves will not cancel their preorder and sell it instead.