9 ms·

Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything.

by hueving 10y ago

wfunction 10y ago
> Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything. I feel this is going to be the killer for them.
- tuna-piano 10y ago
  I would assume that a company investing billions would try very hard to make accurate sales estimates. I would be surprised if Tesla isn't surveying random people on the list, asking questions about their planned purchase and making estimates on the % that will end up cancelling.
  - wfunction 10y ago
    > I would be surprised if Tesla isn't surveying random people on the list, asking questions about their planned purchase and making estimates on the % that will end up cancelling. I hope this would give an accurate result. People might say one thing and do something else when they have to actually shell out the money...
- mpclark 10y ago
  Is there a secondary market for places in the line?
- MattRix 10y ago
  Sure, there will be tons of people who cancel... but then there will also be tons of people who wanted to wait until the car was fully finished before signing up to get one. They'll be fine.
  - harichinnan 10y ago
    This is the car version iphone, with people queuing up at the store days before the product is seen. I would believe they would stop production exactly at 400K cars, the current waiting list and start a new Model 4 waiting list. They have an air of exclusivity now with their current models. People still gawk at the sight of a Tesla. They would want to maintain that awe factor with Model 3 as well.
    - TheSmiddy 10y ago
      You're assuming a pure profit motive. Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world. The goal of Tesla is to make every new car sold electric, if they have to command 100% of the market they will do that, but they'd rather there be some competition.
      - MegaButts 10y ago
        > Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world. Maybe. Or maybe he's just saying that to make money. If Elon Musk ends up being completely successful in all of his endeavors, he will be the world's richest person by far. I suspect the truth is in the middle. He does want to change the world, but he's not willing to become poor (let's say a net worth of less than a million dollars) in the process. I have no problem with people getting rich, especially if they've earned it. But I see Elon Musk as a salesman more than anything, and he's damn good at it. He has generated a cult following of people who believe he is doing everything possible to save the planet. I am very skeptical that Elon Musk is half as great as he's made out to be on certain internet forums. I do not mean to say he is not an incredibly accomplished person, only to say that he does not live up to his self-generated hype. Of course time will tell. I truly hope he is as great as people make him out to be. But I just don't see it. Hopefully he makes me into a believer by delivering on all his promises.
        jodrellblank 10y ago
        He's 79th richest person on the planet at age 45 with only Zuckerberg being richer while also being younger. He was foundationally involved in one of the biggest early online payment companies, one of few private rocket launch companies with NASA contracts, basically the single electric car company to change the world's views on electric vehicles, and a major solar / battery company. https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_musk_ask_me_anything_about_becoming_a/d94tbej/ https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu... https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_musk_ask_me_anything_about_becoming_a/d94u6zk/ https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu... https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2rgsan/i_am_elon_musk_ceocto_of_a_rocket_company_ama/cnfqjjk/ https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2rgsan/i_am_elon_musk... These are Reddit AMA quotes from a car company CEO. Do you really think it's likely that he can't code, can't handle electronics, doesn't understand rocketry, doesn't understand any engineering, hasn't earned any riches, and is just tricking everyone and leading a cult of personality? If the combined 50,000 employees of Tesla, SpaceX and Solar City can't deliver on his promises, that means he's a fraud? And if they can, it's solely down to his brilliance? If he's only half as great as he's made out to be, that's still 200th richest person in the world and head of only one or two international industry changing companies, but that's just not good enough for you? smh.
- philmcc 10y ago
  I disagree. The backlog will be so long, that there will almost certainly be someone who will pay for your spot in line. The same thing happened with the S and the X. "Flipping" a 3 won't be difficult.
  - Tepix 10y ago
    That will be a good reason why people who choose not to buy a Model 3 for themselves will not cancel their preorder and sell it instead.
Matt3o12_ 10y ago
Well, they lost access to $1,000 until they cancel (plus 3-6 weeks, since it can allegedly take Tesla this long to refund the money). I don't think 400,000 have just $1,000 to spare for a really anything they will just cancel. The $1,000 mean that the person who reserved it really wanted the car and is unlikely to just refund it unless they have a very good reason to do so.
- elihu 10y ago
  The sort of people who would consider buying an expensive sedan can probably afford to loan Tesla $1000 for a year or so. I reserved a Model 3 because I figured that if I didn't, I would be at the end of a very long waiting list and would probably lose out on the federal rebate. The most likely outcome is that I'll decide that's too much to spend on a car and cancel, but it still made sense to me to keep my options open. I expect a lot of those reservations to be converted to actual sales, but a lot of them won't. In any case, I think Tesla will have plenty of demand if the product meets expectations.
  - Matt3o12_ 10y ago
    Fair enough but there are many foreigners who do not have a tax credit and still made a reservation.
  - manquer 10y ago
    You could always sell it immediately.. you would probably get even a slightly higher price than you paid by impatient people
- slg 10y ago
  I think the commitment of $1000 is overblown. What is the actual opportunity cost here? Maybe $50-$150 depending on the interest rate and time frame you want to use for your estimates. That is nothing in the scale of a car purchase and it buys you the right to receive the car several months quicker. Relatively speaking it is like someone paying $10 to have a new laptop shipped to them overnight instead of by ground except the shipping has been prepurchased a year before the laptop. If you aren't the type of person who can find a spare $1000, you also probably shouldn't be the type of person who spends $30,000 on a car.
flexie 10y ago
I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla. I think Tesla will sell millions of Model 3. Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit? Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia.
- chronicx0 10y ago
  > I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla. Jesus Christ, you really bought into the Tesla hype.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- antisthenes 10y ago
  I'm with you 100%. If my basic needs like housing and healthcare were already met (unfortunately they aren't), my next purchase would probably be a Tesla or a Solar/Powerwall combo for the house, or both.
- radiorental 10y ago
  > Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia. Sincerely, and with all due respect, this is a false analogy. What happened to Nokia was pretty much self inflicted. Mismanagement, competing empires, complacency. Apple did not start shipping low end brick phones and eat Nokia's market. Post '08 bailout automotive manufacturers are lean and hungry (for the most part) Furthermore, the 'traditional' car market, while slow to move, is not far behind. And in some cases is taking a longer view. E.g. Ford is going straight to Level 4 in 2022. Forget the ICE v. electric debate, that ship has sailed and everyone is heading to EV. The real battle will be to produce the safest self driving product. I am long on TSLA, I expect them to do well however they are in a far riskier spot than Apple was when the iPhone dropped. They were healthy, profitable and experienced (+Jobs). TSLA is none of those. I'm not disagreeing with your sentiment. I just thought we were past the Apple analogies.
  - jaimex2 10y ago
agumonkey 10y ago
Curious, did Tesla published updated stats ? or anyone else for that matter. The announcement numbers were way above expectations, but it's not much if half of that evaporated after the hype.
- greglindahl 10y ago
  Apparently Tesla has not published an update. This article https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/14/teslas-model-3-reservation-count-likely-hasnt-chan.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/14/teslas-model-3-res... guesses that the number hasn't changed much, due to the "Customer Deposits" line on Tesla's quarterly balance sheet.
_ph_ 10y ago
A $1000 deposit is a significant commitment to ordering the car, even if it is fully refundable. Very few people would do this until they are basically decided on buying this. For everyone who would reconsider, there are for certain plenty of people, who are interested in the car but would not put down money without a test drive first. So, judging from the deposits, I would rather assume the actual list of interested buyers way exceeds the amount of people who put money down.
- an_account 10y ago
  I disagree. I put down the deposit because I wanted to reserve my spot in line. Putting down $1k now isn't that much if it might save me $8K in tax credits by having an earlier spot in line. I still haven't figured out if I can get a charger in my apartment building. I haven't decided I like the look of the car. I haven't even decided I want a sedan. I love Tesla, so on the chance that I do want the car I put down the deposit. But I'm still 50/50 on actually buying it. I imagine many are in a similar positions.
ryanmarsh 10y ago
I can't remember a product that sold 400,000 preorders (many of which were sight unseen) with a $1,000 deposit in my lifetime. I think anyone trying to downplay the demand isn't looking at it in the right context.

Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything.

by hueving 10y ago

Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything.

> Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything. I feel this is going to be the killer for them.

tuna-piano 10y ago
I would assume that a company investing billions would try very hard to make accurate sales estimates. I would be surprised if Tesla isn't surveying random people on the list, asking questions about their planned purchase and making estimates on the % that will end up cancelling.
- wfunction 10y ago
  > I would be surprised if Tesla isn't surveying random people on the list, asking questions about their planned purchase and making estimates on the % that will end up cancelling. I hope this would give an accurate result. People might say one thing and do something else when they have to actually shell out the money...
mpclark 10y ago
Is there a secondary market for places in the line?
MattRix 10y ago
Sure, there will be tons of people who cancel... but then there will also be tons of people who wanted to wait until the car was fully finished before signing up to get one. They'll be fine.
- harichinnan 10y ago
  This is the car version iphone, with people queuing up at the store days before the product is seen. I would believe they would stop production exactly at 400K cars, the current waiting list and start a new Model 4 waiting list. They have an air of exclusivity now with their current models. People still gawk at the sight of a Tesla. They would want to maintain that awe factor with Model 3 as well.
  - TheSmiddy 10y ago
    You're assuming a pure profit motive. Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world. The goal of Tesla is to make every new car sold electric, if they have to command 100% of the market they will do that, but they'd rather there be some competition.
    - MegaButts 10y ago
      > Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world. Maybe. Or maybe he's just saying that to make money. If Elon Musk ends up being completely successful in all of his endeavors, he will be the world's richest person by far. I suspect the truth is in the middle. He does want to change the world, but he's not willing to become poor (let's say a net worth of less than a million dollars) in the process. I have no problem with people getting rich, especially if they've earned it. But I see Elon Musk as a salesman more than anything, and he's damn good at it. He has generated a cult following of people who believe he is doing everything possible to save the planet. I am very skeptical that Elon Musk is half as great as he's made out to be on certain internet forums. I do not mean to say he is not an incredibly accomplished person, only to say that he does not live up to his self-generated hype. Of course time will tell. I truly hope he is as great as people make him out to be. But I just don't see it. Hopefully he makes me into a believer by delivering on all his promises.
      - jodrellblank 10y ago
        He's 79th richest person on the planet at age 45 with only Zuckerberg being richer while also being younger. He was foundationally involved in one of the biggest early online payment companies, one of few private rocket launch companies with NASA contracts, basically the single electric car company to change the world's views on electric vehicles, and a major solar / battery company. https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_musk_ask_me_anything_about_becoming_a/d94tbej/ https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu... https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_musk_ask_me_anything_about_becoming_a/d94u6zk/ https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu... https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2rgsan/i_am_elon_musk_ceocto_of_a_rocket_company_ama/cnfqjjk/ https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2rgsan/i_am_elon_musk... These are Reddit AMA quotes from a car company CEO. Do you really think it's likely that he can't code, can't handle electronics, doesn't understand rocketry, doesn't understand any engineering, hasn't earned any riches, and is just tricking everyone and leading a cult of personality? If the combined 50,000 employees of Tesla, SpaceX and Solar City can't deliver on his promises, that means he's a fraud? And if they can, it's solely down to his brilliance? If he's only half as great as he's made out to be, that's still 200th richest person in the world and head of only one or two international industry changing companies, but that's just not good enough for you? smh.
philmcc 10y ago
I disagree. The backlog will be so long, that there will almost certainly be someone who will pay for your spot in line. The same thing happened with the S and the X. "Flipping" a 3 won't be difficult.
- Tepix 10y ago
  That will be a good reason why people who choose not to buy a Model 3 for themselves will not cancel their preorder and sell it instead.

Matt3o12_ 10y ago

Well, they lost access to $1,000 until they cancel (plus 3-6 weeks, since it can allegedly take Tesla this long to refund the money). I don't think 400,000 have just $1,000 to spare for a really anything they will just cancel. The $1,000 mean that the person who reserved it really wanted the car and is unlikely to just refund it unless they have a very good reason to do so.

elihu 10y ago
The sort of people who would consider buying an expensive sedan can probably afford to loan Tesla $1000 for a year or so. I reserved a Model 3 because I figured that if I didn't, I would be at the end of a very long waiting list and would probably lose out on the federal rebate. The most likely outcome is that I'll decide that's too much to spend on a car and cancel, but it still made sense to me to keep my options open. I expect a lot of those reservations to be converted to actual sales, but a lot of them won't. In any case, I think Tesla will have plenty of demand if the product meets expectations.
- Matt3o12_ 10y ago
  Fair enough but there are many foreigners who do not have a tax credit and still made a reservation.
- manquer 10y ago
  You could always sell it immediately.. you would probably get even a slightly higher price than you paid by impatient people
slg 10y ago
I think the commitment of $1000 is overblown. What is the actual opportunity cost here? Maybe $50-$150 depending on the interest rate and time frame you want to use for your estimates. That is nothing in the scale of a car purchase and it buys you the right to receive the car several months quicker. Relatively speaking it is like someone paying $10 to have a new laptop shipped to them overnight instead of by ground except the shipping has been prepurchased a year before the laptop. If you aren't the type of person who can find a spare $1000, you also probably shouldn't be the type of person who spends $30,000 on a car.

flexie 10y ago

I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla. I think Tesla will sell millions of Model 3. Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit? Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia.

chronicx0 10y ago
> I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla. Jesus Christ, you really bought into the Tesla hype.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
antisthenes 10y ago
I'm with you 100%. If my basic needs like housing and healthcare were already met (unfortunately they aren't), my next purchase would probably be a Tesla or a Solar/Powerwall combo for the house, or both.
radiorental 10y ago
> Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia. Sincerely, and with all due respect, this is a false analogy. What happened to Nokia was pretty much self inflicted. Mismanagement, competing empires, complacency. Apple did not start shipping low end brick phones and eat Nokia's market. Post '08 bailout automotive manufacturers are lean and hungry (for the most part) Furthermore, the 'traditional' car market, while slow to move, is not far behind. And in some cases is taking a longer view. E.g. Ford is going straight to Level 4 in 2022. Forget the ICE v. electric debate, that ship has sailed and everyone is heading to EV. The real battle will be to produce the safest self driving product. I am long on TSLA, I expect them to do well however they are in a far riskier spot than Apple was when the iPhone dropped. They were healthy, profitable and experienced (+Jobs). TSLA is none of those. I'm not disagreeing with your sentiment. I just thought we were past the Apple analogies.
- jaimex2 10y ago

agumonkey 10y ago

Curious, did Tesla published updated stats ? or anyone else for that matter. The announcement numbers were way above expectations, but it's not much if half of that evaporated after the hype.

greglindahl 10y ago
Apparently Tesla has not published an update. This article https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/14/teslas-model-3-reservation-count-likely-hasnt-chan.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/14/teslas-model-3-res... guesses that the number hasn't changed much, due to the "Customer Deposits" line on Tesla's quarterly balance sheet.

_ph_ 10y ago

A $1000 deposit is a significant commitment to ordering the car, even if it is fully refundable. Very few people would do this until they are basically decided on buying this. For everyone who would reconsider, there are for certain plenty of people, who are interested in the car but would not put down money without a test drive first. So, judging from the deposits, I would rather assume the actual list of interested buyers way exceeds the amount of people who put money down.

an_account 10y ago
I disagree. I put down the deposit because I wanted to reserve my spot in line. Putting down $1k now isn't that much if it might save me $8K in tax credits by having an earlier spot in line. I still haven't figured out if I can get a charger in my apartment building. I haven't decided I like the look of the car. I haven't even decided I want a sedan. I love Tesla, so on the chance that I do want the car I put down the deposit. But I'm still 50/50 on actually buying it. I imagine many are in a similar positions.

ryanmarsh 10y ago

I can't remember a product that sold 400,000 preorders (many of which were sight unseen) with a $1,000 deposit in my lifetime. I think anyone trying to downplay the demand isn't looking at it in the right context.