3 ms·

Consider cameras that can shoot 10000 frames a second at ultra high definition resolutions; in the 1970s we had shitty auto developing film as the height of con

Consider cameras that can shoot 10000 frames a second at ultra high definition resolutions; in the 1970s we had shitty auto developing film as the height of consumer tech. Battery tech has gotten so advanced you're literally carrying around a firestorm's worth of energy in your pocket and only notice in the rare case that things go spectacularly wrong; compare that to the heavy inefficient NiCds of your parent's age. Semiconductors are 14nm. That's not for scientists, that's not for researchers, that's for any joe that has 300 bucks. 70 years ago the idea that a pace described by Moore's law could even exist was seen with skepticism (remember it's a marketing "law" not a physical one). We have rockets that can land themselves, cars that weigh half as much as they did 70 years ago and are twice as safe, a logistic network such that exotic foods are available year round world wide. It just kills me to watch people post on the Internet using more than likely their mobile super computers, saying tech clearly has slown down because "they've got a feeling".

ExactoKnight 10y ago
1. The important point to emphasize here is deceleration does not mean that progress isn't happening. It simply means that the groundbreaking progress we witnessed in the first half of the 20th century is not being replicated as quickly anymore. 2. Technological progress is based on the outcomes they bring with them. Easy or hard to achieve -- doesn't matter in terms of this measurement. Insane advancements in physics is not technological progress unless it enables us to vastly improve our existing capabilities to do things as humans. Thiel argues this by pointing to a tech were all excited about: self-driving cars. Thiel argues the original invention of the car was still a bigger innovation. electricity -> cars -> airplanes -> rockets -> space travel radio -> tv laundry machines -> dishwashers antibiotics -> vaccines ^^^All first 3/4 of 20th century. Self-driving cars would be merely a close match to any one of them. For the next 50 years to match what we saw in the start of the 20th century, we are going to need at least 4 or 5 other technological revolutions in the world of atoms for the comparison to be even similar.

ExactoKnight 10y ago

1. The important point to emphasize here is deceleration does not mean that progress isn't happening. It simply means that the groundbreaking progress we witnessed in the first half of the 20th century is not being replicated as quickly anymore. 2. Technological progress is based on the outcomes they bring with them. Easy or hard to achieve -- doesn't matter in terms of this measurement. Insane advancements in physics is not technological progress unless it enables us to vastly improve our existing capabilities to do things as humans. Thiel argues this by pointing to a tech were all excited about: self-driving cars. Thiel argues the original invention of the car was still a bigger innovation. electricity -> cars -> airplanes -> rockets -> space travel radio -> tv laundry machines -> dishwashers antibiotics -> vaccines ^^^All first 3/4 of 20th century. Self-driving cars would be merely a close match to any one of them. For the next 50 years to match what we saw in the start of the 20th century, we are going to need at least 4 or 5 other technological revolutions in the world of atoms for the comparison to be even similar.