4 ms·
> That ominous mood engulfing the world is not a new dynamic, but a cyclical event arriving every 80 or so years. Eight decades ago the world was on the verge o
by roryisok 10y ago
> That ominous mood engulfing the world is not a new dynamic, but a cyclical event arriving every 80 or so years. Eight decades ago the world was on the verge of a world war which would kill 65 million people. Eight decades prior to 1937 the country was on the verge of a Civil War which would kill almost 5% of the male population. Eight decades prior to 1857 the American Revolution had just begun and would last six more bloody years. None of this is a coincidence. The generational configuration repeats itself every eighty years, driving the mood change which leads to revolutionary change and the destruction of the existing social order.
This logic smells.
This "cycle" ignores the first World War and many others. The author includes the American Civil War and American Revolution as evidence of this "global cycle", which were not global conflicts. The American Revolution is estimated to have killed 50,000 people. But the French Revolution happened in 1792 and killed over 1,000,000, but that doesn't fit the cycle.
1800-1815 - Napoleonic Wars, 3,500,000-6,000,000 deaths. Not part of the cycle.
1850–1864 - Taiping Rebellion, China - 20,000,000-100,000,000 deaths. Not part of the cycle.
1862–1877 - Dungan Revolt, China - 8,000,000-20,000,000 deaths. Not part of the cycle.
The list goes on.
Literally.
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll in case anyone's interested)
> None of this is a coincidence
He's right about that. It's not a coincidence, it's just cherry picking history.