7 ms·

As a part-time Uber driver in Toronto I haven't noticed any drop-off in ride requests whatsoever. Uber will survive, at least unless someone else beats them to

by aianus 10y ago

As a part-time Uber driver in Toronto I haven't noticed any drop-off in ride requests whatsoever. Uber will survive, at least unless someone else beats them to market with an autonomous alternative. I don't get any incentives or bonuses either, just ~75% of the gross receipts from the customer.

robbyking 10y ago
I think it's important to remember that Uber users aren't loyal: if a ride isn't immediately available through Uber, they use Lyft; if Lyft isn't available, they go to the next app. While I agree that the service is here to stay, the individual players are likely to shift.
- foota 10y ago
  Are uber rides ever not available?
  - bluetidepro 10y ago
    Yes, "available" isn't probably the correct term, but what the author of that comment probably meant was stuff like "surging prices", "wait time", etc.
- Taylor_OD 10y ago
  Based on what? I'm pretty loyal to Uber and use it because I know what I'm going to pay when I order the ride and because I'm not pressured to tip in the app. I guess if another app had both those features, the same ride availability, and cost the same I'd download and try it but currently none of them, that I've tried, do.
  - frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago
    Yes but Uber will have to raise prices at some point. Will you be loyal then?
    - thecopy 10y ago
      What do you base that on?
      - frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago
        Here's a link from a comment a bit further down the thread: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/uber-true-cost-uh-oh https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/uber-true-cost-uh... If you really want to go down the rabbit hole I'd recommend reading this series on nakedcapitalism. They're at nine parts now: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/?s=can+uber+ever+deliver http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/?s=can+uber+ever+deliver
        valuearb 10y ago
        The naked capitalism series is written by a cab dispatch consultant, and reads almost like a paid hatchet job. Makes huge assumptions on data not in hand, and spins iffy conclusions with evident bias. At one point he claims Ubers costs can never be as low as cab dispatch because Uber is spending money expanding! That makes zero sense. It's pretty clear Uber is in heavy investment mode, in market expansion as well as new businesses (uber-eats, self driving cars, etc), no one can know what their real costs per ride are unless they can break out that detail. But it's also clear in their core business their cost to dispatch a ride should only be pennies.
- valuearb 10y ago
  I have Uber in my phone, not Lyft.
  - st3v3r 10y ago
    And I have Lyft, not Uber. Your point?
    - valuearb 10y ago
      That you are a an exception. I've never had a friend suggest Lyft, i'm not sure they even know what it is. They suggest uber all the time, and it's clear Uber has massively more market share.
      - deleted 10y ago
        [deleted]
      - nebabyte 10y ago
        And when the unsustainable "subsidized growth" period ends, Lyft will be the new word on the street. It's not exactly a high barrier to entry to hear about and install a new app in this day and age. If your reasoning is entirely anecdata, there's really no point in you engaging in threads about where businesses are going, since you'd only ever have something to contribute after it already happened.
        aianus 10y ago
        Why would Lyft have any better margins than Uber once the subsidized growth period is over? If anything Uber will have better margins as they can distribute their fixed costs across more rides due to their global availability.
        st3v3r 10y ago
        How many fixed costs are there? It's an app that sends location and messages, and does billing.
- r00fus 10y ago
  Not only are Uber's riders not loyal, their drivers arent either. Lyft pays better, and now has less baggage in terms of existential issues. If I made my living (or any sizeable chunk of $$) off rides, I'd honestly be looking at positioning Lyft first if it was possible.
rthomas6 10y ago
It doesn't matter if Uber's not actually making money. And they're not, last I heard.
- valuearb 10y ago
  it only matters if they can. Few rapidly growing tech startups make money while still investing in growth.
  - nebabyte 10y ago
    That 'growth' has included subsidizing rides, so their userbase once the 'growth' levels off will look radically different - likely diminished - from now. Obviously in larger cities the taxi model can and does thrive, but as Uber's price goes up, more frugal users comfortable with installing new apps will likely move to other platforms that offer the same basic service minus massive investor pockets to fill, while others might use it as a niche transport service for longer-distance ridesharing or as one of several taxi services in cities. Autonomous could save the margins there, but imo it's another front that Uber won't be able to afford fighting. Once the subsidizing ends, there'll be no love lost between Uber and users eager/happy to stick it to Kalanick and save a few bucks in the process, nor drivers who might've felt slighted/affronted by his or Uber's treatment of them, nor employees/users who don't care for the company's culture. Time's running out for Uber; whether or not it survives as a big fish basically comes down to how soon autonomous goes mainstream.
    - valuearb 10y ago
      Yea, autonomous has no bearing on the market. If it becomes a thing Uber will just go autonomous. In the meantime people won't switch because of branding. They will already have Uber on their phone and be comfortable with it. It will take a lot to get people to switch. Branding is a huge competitive advantage. Better colas than Coke have been developed for a hundred years and they still grew market share. Uber will get market rates, whatever they are and will make tons of money because their business model is super efficient. It should only cost pennies to dispatch each ride, they get dollars in revenue from each ride, and are developing huge economies of scale cab dispatch companies have never had. As soon as they stop investing so heavily on opening new markets and businesses their income statement is going to look a whole lot different.
dkarapetyan 10y ago
But they actually can't survive. You're assuming the current demand can offset all the money they're burning.
- valuearb 10y ago
  Your assuming their ridesharing business is not profitable in mature markets. There is evidence it is. No outside analysis has yet been able to break down how much of their losses are investment in new businesses and markets.
  - dkarapetyan 10y ago
    Yes. I'm assuming the ridesharing component is indeed not profitable.
    - nebabyte 10y ago
      Obviously it's big enough for both taxis and (whatever splitting rides long-distance is called, if not also ridesharing) to have continued to exist, but in general I agree with you. Uber's ubiquitousness in this day and age has less to do with a high unmet demand for people using cars to get places, and more for demand to get to places cheaply. There's definitely a niche, but it's nowhere near the size that Uber's operating at now; so if they're reliant on that volume or higher for the margin they need they're in for some bad news. Once the price goes up the market will be ripe for new public transportation efforts and less-VC-saddled competitors to fill the void. I dunno, maybe they'll have more luck in foreign markets. (Though last I read, that wasn't the case either...)
9q 10y ago
The person we got in to fill a spare room in our house uses Uber to pay his rent, so I'm slightly concerned if his income will be affected as well. I'm hoping not so he can continue to pay rent.
ProAm 10y ago
Demand speaks nothing of their balance sheet.
- valuearb 10y ago
  Ther balance sheet is massive. They've raised over $15B.
cjensen 10y ago
You are in a city where Lyft is not available. Does Uber have serious competition in Toronto? Here in California, there is zero downside to using Lyft instead of Uber, so a switch is much easier. The only reason I have Uber on my phone is for trips to Ottawa.
- tensor 10y ago
  There is no serious competition to Uber in Toronto.

by aianus 10y ago

robbyking 10y ago

I think it's important to remember that Uber users aren't loyal: if a ride isn't immediately available through Uber, they use Lyft; if Lyft isn't available, they go to the next app. While I agree that the service is here to stay, the individual players are likely to shift.

foota 10y ago
Are uber rides ever not available?
- bluetidepro 10y ago
  Yes, "available" isn't probably the correct term, but what the author of that comment probably meant was stuff like "surging prices", "wait time", etc.
Taylor_OD 10y ago
Based on what? I'm pretty loyal to Uber and use it because I know what I'm going to pay when I order the ride and because I'm not pressured to tip in the app. I guess if another app had both those features, the same ride availability, and cost the same I'd download and try it but currently none of them, that I've tried, do.
- frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago
  Yes but Uber will have to raise prices at some point. Will you be loyal then?
  - thecopy 10y ago
    What do you base that on?
    - frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago
      Here's a link from a comment a bit further down the thread: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/uber-true-cost-uh-oh https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/uber-true-cost-uh... If you really want to go down the rabbit hole I'd recommend reading this series on nakedcapitalism. They're at nine parts now: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/?s=can+uber+ever+deliver http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/?s=can+uber+ever+deliver
      - valuearb 10y ago
        The naked capitalism series is written by a cab dispatch consultant, and reads almost like a paid hatchet job. Makes huge assumptions on data not in hand, and spins iffy conclusions with evident bias. At one point he claims Ubers costs can never be as low as cab dispatch because Uber is spending money expanding! That makes zero sense. It's pretty clear Uber is in heavy investment mode, in market expansion as well as new businesses (uber-eats, self driving cars, etc), no one can know what their real costs per ride are unless they can break out that detail. But it's also clear in their core business their cost to dispatch a ride should only be pennies.
valuearb 10y ago
I have Uber in my phone, not Lyft.
- st3v3r 10y ago
  And I have Lyft, not Uber. Your point?
  - valuearb 10y ago
    That you are a an exception. I've never had a friend suggest Lyft, i'm not sure they even know what it is. They suggest uber all the time, and it's clear Uber has massively more market share.
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
    - nebabyte 10y ago
      And when the unsustainable "subsidized growth" period ends, Lyft will be the new word on the street. It's not exactly a high barrier to entry to hear about and install a new app in this day and age. If your reasoning is entirely anecdata, there's really no point in you engaging in threads about where businesses are going, since you'd only ever have something to contribute after it already happened.
      - aianus 10y ago
        Why would Lyft have any better margins than Uber once the subsidized growth period is over? If anything Uber will have better margins as they can distribute their fixed costs across more rides due to their global availability.
        st3v3r 10y ago
        How many fixed costs are there? It's an app that sends location and messages, and does billing.
r00fus 10y ago
Not only are Uber's riders not loyal, their drivers arent either. Lyft pays better, and now has less baggage in terms of existential issues. If I made my living (or any sizeable chunk of $$) off rides, I'd honestly be looking at positioning Lyft first if it was possible.

rthomas6 10y ago

It doesn't matter if Uber's not actually making money. And they're not, last I heard.

valuearb 10y ago
it only matters if they can. Few rapidly growing tech startups make money while still investing in growth.
- nebabyte 10y ago
  That 'growth' has included subsidizing rides, so their userbase once the 'growth' levels off will look radically different - likely diminished - from now. Obviously in larger cities the taxi model can and does thrive, but as Uber's price goes up, more frugal users comfortable with installing new apps will likely move to other platforms that offer the same basic service minus massive investor pockets to fill, while others might use it as a niche transport service for longer-distance ridesharing or as one of several taxi services in cities. Autonomous could save the margins there, but imo it's another front that Uber won't be able to afford fighting. Once the subsidizing ends, there'll be no love lost between Uber and users eager/happy to stick it to Kalanick and save a few bucks in the process, nor drivers who might've felt slighted/affronted by his or Uber's treatment of them, nor employees/users who don't care for the company's culture. Time's running out for Uber; whether or not it survives as a big fish basically comes down to how soon autonomous goes mainstream.
  - valuearb 10y ago
    Yea, autonomous has no bearing on the market. If it becomes a thing Uber will just go autonomous. In the meantime people won't switch because of branding. They will already have Uber on their phone and be comfortable with it. It will take a lot to get people to switch. Branding is a huge competitive advantage. Better colas than Coke have been developed for a hundred years and they still grew market share. Uber will get market rates, whatever they are and will make tons of money because their business model is super efficient. It should only cost pennies to dispatch each ride, they get dollars in revenue from each ride, and are developing huge economies of scale cab dispatch companies have never had. As soon as they stop investing so heavily on opening new markets and businesses their income statement is going to look a whole lot different.

dkarapetyan 10y ago

But they actually can't survive. You're assuming the current demand can offset all the money they're burning.

valuearb 10y ago
Your assuming their ridesharing business is not profitable in mature markets. There is evidence it is. No outside analysis has yet been able to break down how much of their losses are investment in new businesses and markets.
- dkarapetyan 10y ago
  Yes. I'm assuming the ridesharing component is indeed not profitable.
  - nebabyte 10y ago
    Obviously it's big enough for both taxis and (whatever splitting rides long-distance is called, if not also ridesharing) to have continued to exist, but in general I agree with you. Uber's ubiquitousness in this day and age has less to do with a high unmet demand for people using cars to get places, and more for demand to get to places cheaply. There's definitely a niche, but it's nowhere near the size that Uber's operating at now; so if they're reliant on that volume or higher for the margin they need they're in for some bad news. Once the price goes up the market will be ripe for new public transportation efforts and less-VC-saddled competitors to fill the void. I dunno, maybe they'll have more luck in foreign markets. (Though last I read, that wasn't the case either...)

9q 10y ago

The person we got in to fill a spare room in our house uses Uber to pay his rent, so I'm slightly concerned if his income will be affected as well. I'm hoping not so he can continue to pay rent.

ProAm 10y ago

Demand speaks nothing of their balance sheet.

valuearb 10y ago
Ther balance sheet is massive. They've raised over $15B.

cjensen 10y ago

You are in a city where Lyft is not available. Does Uber have serious competition in Toronto? Here in California, there is zero downside to using Lyft instead of Uber, so a switch is much easier. The only reason I have Uber on my phone is for trips to Ottawa.

tensor 10y ago
There is no serious competition to Uber in Toronto.