If forgers can infiltrate 2.5% to 3% of the market, there's no reason for them to stop at such modest levels. Why not try for 30%? We also don't know anything

If forgers can infiltrate 2.5% to 3% of the market, there's no reason for them to stop at such modest levels. Why not try for 30%? We also don't know anything about the volume of forged coins withdrawn from the market each month. If detection at pubs, grocery stores, etc. is poor, then fake coins enter the market at will and are detected only when merchants present their cash to banks. That's annoying for everyone, and it's possible to come up with scenarios in which each year sees 2x or even 5x the introduction of fake coins, with many of them staying in circulation for only a few months but causing damages anyway. In either of these scenarios, clamping down now on forgery is economically prudent, even if the 100 > 45 comparison doesn't reveal the true cost.