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> I'm acting accordingly cautiously, and have cut my spending considerably since the referendum thankfully you aren't the majority; we really would have had a

by blibble 10y ago

> I'm acting accordingly cautiously, and have cut my spending considerably since the referendum thankfully you aren't the majority; we really would have had a recession if everyone had cut their spending

vidarh 10y ago
There's a number of indications that people are being cautious [1] [2] [3], but most people don't have the disposable income to allow substantial reductions in spending, given the low levels of salary increases ever since 2008. Basically ver since then low interest credit has been used as a substitute, and driven UK consumer debt levels to crazy heights. I for one thinks that recession or not, a lot of people are setting themselves up for major pain once interest rates start moving up again and would be best served by doing what they can to cut down on spending. At the moments large parts of the handling of the UK economy appears to be based on trying to push problems ahead of us in the hope that things will start looking rosier some day. Instead it's looking scarier and scarier. [1] https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2017/02/consumer-spending-slides-from-sharp-drop-in-clothing-and-high-street-sales https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2017/02/consumer-spendi... [2] http://myinforms.com/en-gb/a/184905009-consumer-spending-growth-expected-to-drop-to-four-year-low-in-2017/ http://myinforms.com/en-gb/a/184905009-consumer-spending-gro... [3] https://sputniknews.com/business/201701201049832161-uk-retail-sales-drop-inflation/ https://sputniknews.com/business/201701201049832161-uk-retai...
- blibble 10y ago
  this sort of doom-saying and cherry-picking of statistics to derive a narrative is in itself harmful, as the economy is almost entirely based on consumer demand and confidence brexit itself doesn't change the fact there's a short term business cycle driven by credit and low interest rates > At the moments large parts of the handling of the UK economy appears to be based on trying to push problems ahead of us in the hope that things will start looking rosier some day. capitalism is based entirely on eternal exponential growth, which is clearly not sustainable, there's nothing UK specific about this
  - vidarh 10y ago
    > this sort of doom-saying and cherry-picking of statistics to derive a narrative is in itself harmful, as the economy is almost entirely based on consumer demand and confidence Consumer demand and confidence largely comes from how safe people feel in their jobs and whether or not they get raises, not statistics. I'm sure there's some feedback, but my own cautious spending is a direct result of knowing of direct threats to a substantial number of jobs, and seeing the consequences of e.g. potential clients pulling back on spending. I'm not very worried about my own income, but the only reason I'm not very worried is that my disposable income is high enough that I can sustain drops without being affected much. Meanwhile e.g. my ex. has to deal with knowing that hundreds of jobs where she works will be cut (and no, that's not rumours - she works in HR and has direct knowledge of the plans) as a consequence of Brexit. If the negotiations goes badly, it will be several times that. That is the kind of things that's causing consumer confidence to soften. > brexit itself doesn't change the fact there's a short term business cycle driven by credit and low interest rates No, but it has directly affected that starting to come to and end because of softening consumer confidence. > capitalism is based entirely on eternal exponential growth, which is clearly not sustainable, there's nothing UK specific about this No, but there is something UK specific about currently being in a situation where the government has chosen to drastically cut public spending at a time when low salary growth has left people using low credit as a means to keep the party going, and are then suddenly hit by events that cause a great deal of uncertainty over their ability to continue to service debt.
    - blibble 10y ago
      the plural of anecdote is not data
      - vidarh 10y ago
        In my case the anecdote is data for my specific case: It explain the direct causes of my decision to reign in my spendings. It is not data that we can use to extrapolate whether or not consumer confidence is softening, but I have already presented a number of references to actual data on that.

by blibble 10y ago

vidarh 10y ago

There's a number of indications that people are being cautious [1] [2] [3], but most people don't have the disposable income to allow substantial reductions in spending, given the low levels of salary increases ever since 2008. Basically ver since then low interest credit has been used as a substitute, and driven UK consumer debt levels to crazy heights. I for one thinks that recession or not, a lot of people are setting themselves up for major pain once interest rates start moving up again and would be best served by doing what they can to cut down on spending. At the moments large parts of the handling of the UK economy appears to be based on trying to push problems ahead of us in the hope that things will start looking rosier some day. Instead it's looking scarier and scarier. [1] https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2017/02/consumer-spending-slides-from-sharp-drop-in-clothing-and-high-street-sales https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2017/02/consumer-spendi... [2] http://myinforms.com/en-gb/a/184905009-consumer-spending-growth-expected-to-drop-to-four-year-low-in-2017/ http://myinforms.com/en-gb/a/184905009-consumer-spending-gro... [3] https://sputniknews.com/business/201701201049832161-uk-retail-sales-drop-inflation/ https://sputniknews.com/business/201701201049832161-uk-retai...

blibble 10y ago
this sort of doom-saying and cherry-picking of statistics to derive a narrative is in itself harmful, as the economy is almost entirely based on consumer demand and confidence brexit itself doesn't change the fact there's a short term business cycle driven by credit and low interest rates > At the moments large parts of the handling of the UK economy appears to be based on trying to push problems ahead of us in the hope that things will start looking rosier some day. capitalism is based entirely on eternal exponential growth, which is clearly not sustainable, there's nothing UK specific about this
- vidarh 10y ago
  > this sort of doom-saying and cherry-picking of statistics to derive a narrative is in itself harmful, as the economy is almost entirely based on consumer demand and confidence Consumer demand and confidence largely comes from how safe people feel in their jobs and whether or not they get raises, not statistics. I'm sure there's some feedback, but my own cautious spending is a direct result of knowing of direct threats to a substantial number of jobs, and seeing the consequences of e.g. potential clients pulling back on spending. I'm not very worried about my own income, but the only reason I'm not very worried is that my disposable income is high enough that I can sustain drops without being affected much. Meanwhile e.g. my ex. has to deal with knowing that hundreds of jobs where she works will be cut (and no, that's not rumours - she works in HR and has direct knowledge of the plans) as a consequence of Brexit. If the negotiations goes badly, it will be several times that. That is the kind of things that's causing consumer confidence to soften. > brexit itself doesn't change the fact there's a short term business cycle driven by credit and low interest rates No, but it has directly affected that starting to come to and end because of softening consumer confidence. > capitalism is based entirely on eternal exponential growth, which is clearly not sustainable, there's nothing UK specific about this No, but there is something UK specific about currently being in a situation where the government has chosen to drastically cut public spending at a time when low salary growth has left people using low credit as a means to keep the party going, and are then suddenly hit by events that cause a great deal of uncertainty over their ability to continue to service debt.
  - blibble 10y ago
    the plural of anecdote is not data
    - vidarh 10y ago
      In my case the anecdote is data for my specific case: It explain the direct causes of my decision to reign in my spendings. It is not data that we can use to extrapolate whether or not consumer confidence is softening, but I have already presented a number of references to actual data on that.