6 ms·

From all the big ForEx investors who will only learn about Brexit when they read in the papers that it has happened?

by tveita 10y ago

vidarh 10y ago
There is a strong emotional effect at play, so it's hard to say what will happen. I know someone currently buying a house, and the question of what will happen when Article 50 is invoked has been a persistent theme. E.g. in London, thousands of banking jobs may hang in the balance, with at least one bank having made it very clear internally that once Article 50 is invoked they will start planning which jobs to move - something that for that bank alone will start to shift massive amounts in salaries out of London (hundreds of millions at least) On one hand finally getting clarity might be good news in that some people who have held back might spend more once the uncertainty of the immediate reaction is out of the way. On the other hand for a lot of people it makes things definite and will cause more cautious spending patterns, and there's still plenty of other uncertainty. It also starts the clock, which will make people speculate about the timing. I haven't the faintest clue how that will make traders respond. What I do know is that because I don't have the faintest clue how it will make people respond, I'm acting accordingly cautiously, and have cut my spending considerably since the referendum, and I know many others in the same situation, and indeed the UK has a whole has seen consumer debt levels drop substantially. All this to say that it is foolish to assume that it boils down to whether or not the actual event itself is expected or not.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- blibble 10y ago
  > I'm acting accordingly cautiously, and have cut my spending considerably since the referendum thankfully you aren't the majority; we really would have had a recession if everyone had cut their spending
  - vidarh 10y ago
    There's a number of indications that people are being cautious [1] [2] [3], but most people don't have the disposable income to allow substantial reductions in spending, given the low levels of salary increases ever since 2008. Basically ver since then low interest credit has been used as a substitute, and driven UK consumer debt levels to crazy heights. I for one thinks that recession or not, a lot of people are setting themselves up for major pain once interest rates start moving up again and would be best served by doing what they can to cut down on spending. At the moments large parts of the handling of the UK economy appears to be based on trying to push problems ahead of us in the hope that things will start looking rosier some day. Instead it's looking scarier and scarier. [1] https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2017/02/consumer-spending-slides-from-sharp-drop-in-clothing-and-high-street-sales https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2017/02/consumer-spendi... [2] http://myinforms.com/en-gb/a/184905009-consumer-spending-growth-expected-to-drop-to-four-year-low-in-2017/ http://myinforms.com/en-gb/a/184905009-consumer-spending-gro... [3] https://sputniknews.com/business/201701201049832161-uk-retail-sales-drop-inflation/ https://sputniknews.com/business/201701201049832161-uk-retai...
    - blibble 10y ago
      this sort of doom-saying and cherry-picking of statistics to derive a narrative is in itself harmful, as the economy is almost entirely based on consumer demand and confidence brexit itself doesn't change the fact there's a short term business cycle driven by credit and low interest rates > At the moments large parts of the handling of the UK economy appears to be based on trying to push problems ahead of us in the hope that things will start looking rosier some day. capitalism is based entirely on eternal exponential growth, which is clearly not sustainable, there's nothing UK specific about this
      - vidarh 10y ago
        > this sort of doom-saying and cherry-picking of statistics to derive a narrative is in itself harmful, as the economy is almost entirely based on consumer demand and confidence Consumer demand and confidence largely comes from how safe people feel in their jobs and whether or not they get raises, not statistics. I'm sure there's some feedback, but my own cautious spending is a direct result of knowing of direct threats to a substantial number of jobs, and seeing the consequences of e.g. potential clients pulling back on spending. I'm not very worried about my own income, but the only reason I'm not very worried is that my disposable income is high enough that I can sustain drops without being affected much. Meanwhile e.g. my ex. has to deal with knowing that hundreds of jobs where she works will be cut (and no, that's not rumours - she works in HR and has direct knowledge of the plans) as a consequence of Brexit. If the negotiations goes badly, it will be several times that. That is the kind of things that's causing consumer confidence to soften. > brexit itself doesn't change the fact there's a short term business cycle driven by credit and low interest rates No, but it has directly affected that starting to come to and end because of softening consumer confidence. > capitalism is based entirely on eternal exponential growth, which is clearly not sustainable, there's nothing UK specific about this No, but there is something UK specific about currently being in a situation where the government has chosen to drastically cut public spending at a time when low salary growth has left people using low credit as a means to keep the party going, and are then suddenly hit by events that cause a great deal of uncertainty over their ability to continue to service debt.

From all the big ForEx investors who will only learn about Brexit when they read in the papers that it has happened?

by tveita 10y ago

From all the big ForEx investors who will only learn about Brexit when they read in the papers that it has happened?

There is a strong emotional effect at play, so it's hard to say what will happen. I know someone currently buying a house, and the question of what will happen when Article 50 is invoked has been a persistent theme. E.g. in London, thousands of banking jobs may hang in the balance, with at least one bank having made it very clear internally that once Article 50 is invoked they will start planning which jobs to move - something that for that bank alone will start to shift massive amounts in salaries out of London (hundreds of millions at least) On one hand finally getting clarity might be good news in that some people who have held back might spend more once the uncertainty of the immediate reaction is out of the way. On the other hand for a lot of people it makes things definite and will cause more cautious spending patterns, and there's still plenty of other uncertainty. It also starts the clock, which will make people speculate about the timing. I haven't the faintest clue how that will make traders respond. What I do know is that because I don't have the faintest clue how it will make people respond, I'm acting accordingly cautiously, and have cut my spending considerably since the referendum, and I know many others in the same situation, and indeed the UK has a whole has seen consumer debt levels drop substantially. All this to say that it is foolish to assume that it boils down to whether or not the actual event itself is expected or not.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
blibble 10y ago
> I'm acting accordingly cautiously, and have cut my spending considerably since the referendum thankfully you aren't the majority; we really would have had a recession if everyone had cut their spending
- vidarh 10y ago
  There's a number of indications that people are being cautious [1] [2] [3], but most people don't have the disposable income to allow substantial reductions in spending, given the low levels of salary increases ever since 2008. Basically ver since then low interest credit has been used as a substitute, and driven UK consumer debt levels to crazy heights. I for one thinks that recession or not, a lot of people are setting themselves up for major pain once interest rates start moving up again and would be best served by doing what they can to cut down on spending. At the moments large parts of the handling of the UK economy appears to be based on trying to push problems ahead of us in the hope that things will start looking rosier some day. Instead it's looking scarier and scarier. [1] https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2017/02/consumer-spending-slides-from-sharp-drop-in-clothing-and-high-street-sales https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2017/02/consumer-spendi... [2] http://myinforms.com/en-gb/a/184905009-consumer-spending-growth-expected-to-drop-to-four-year-low-in-2017/ http://myinforms.com/en-gb/a/184905009-consumer-spending-gro... [3] https://sputniknews.com/business/201701201049832161-uk-retail-sales-drop-inflation/ https://sputniknews.com/business/201701201049832161-uk-retai...
  - blibble 10y ago
    this sort of doom-saying and cherry-picking of statistics to derive a narrative is in itself harmful, as the economy is almost entirely based on consumer demand and confidence brexit itself doesn't change the fact there's a short term business cycle driven by credit and low interest rates > At the moments large parts of the handling of the UK economy appears to be based on trying to push problems ahead of us in the hope that things will start looking rosier some day. capitalism is based entirely on eternal exponential growth, which is clearly not sustainable, there's nothing UK specific about this
    - vidarh 10y ago
      > this sort of doom-saying and cherry-picking of statistics to derive a narrative is in itself harmful, as the economy is almost entirely based on consumer demand and confidence Consumer demand and confidence largely comes from how safe people feel in their jobs and whether or not they get raises, not statistics. I'm sure there's some feedback, but my own cautious spending is a direct result of knowing of direct threats to a substantial number of jobs, and seeing the consequences of e.g. potential clients pulling back on spending. I'm not very worried about my own income, but the only reason I'm not very worried is that my disposable income is high enough that I can sustain drops without being affected much. Meanwhile e.g. my ex. has to deal with knowing that hundreds of jobs where she works will be cut (and no, that's not rumours - she works in HR and has direct knowledge of the plans) as a consequence of Brexit. If the negotiations goes badly, it will be several times that. That is the kind of things that's causing consumer confidence to soften. > brexit itself doesn't change the fact there's a short term business cycle driven by credit and low interest rates No, but it has directly affected that starting to come to and end because of softening consumer confidence. > capitalism is based entirely on eternal exponential growth, which is clearly not sustainable, there's nothing UK specific about this No, but there is something UK specific about currently being in a situation where the government has chosen to drastically cut public spending at a time when low salary growth has left people using low credit as a means to keep the party going, and are then suddenly hit by events that cause a great deal of uncertainty over their ability to continue to service debt.