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This is a terrible analysis. First of all, it assumes that the cost of a kWh of battery remains at today's high value. If battery costs are falling rapidly (and

This is a terrible analysis. First of all, it assumes that the cost of a kWh of battery remains at today's high value. If battery costs are falling rapidly (and they are), then the value of a used battery pack will be driven down as inexpensive new packs come on the market. Second, it ignores the fact that 10-year-old packs will have a substantially higher rate of catastrophic failure than new packs, and if reliability is paramount then a used pack that is closer to failure won't have that much value. Third, the fact that every car brand uses very different pack designs means that it would be a nightmare to design some kind of heterogeneous power storage system made up of batteries from Leafs, Bolts, Fiats, Teslas, i3's, etc. The current situation is that EV resale prices for everything but Teslas are plunging like a rock. Three year old Fiat 500e's are selling at auction for $4k, which is already less than the author's purported resale value of their batteries at 10 years.

greglindahl 10y ago
Where does the author give a battery resale value for the Fiat 500e? Since it has a small battery, it degrades much faster per mile than a large battery.
- gcb0 10y ago
  it weights 1/3 of tesla so it degrades 3x slower
  - _ph_ 10y ago
    What has the weight of the battery to do with degradation speed? It is the cycle count which determines battery aging, and for the same distance driven, a Tesla has far fewer battery cycles than a smaller vehicle. The energy consumption of a Tesla is higher than that of smaller vehicles, but by a surprisingly small amount, as kinetic energy can be (partially) recovered. At highway speeds, a Tesla even sometimes consumes less energy than some smaller EV due to its better aerodynamics.
    - gcb0 10y ago
      weight of vehicle. battery degradation is proportional to energy x time. if you need 3x more to push all that weight, is it is dead 3x earlier. it's just like how you waste breaks 3x faster breaking a cayenne instead of a sedan.
- swiley 10y ago
  After some googling I actually can't even find a place to buy replacements so I can price them (maybe I'm thinking about this wrong?) For a car, $4k sounds low enough that if it doesn't work out it's not /that/ big a deal. These used EVs sound great for someone that just wants to try the idea out without becoming totally invested.
- URSpider94 10y ago
  My point was that these are 3-year-old cars, most with light usage. It's easy to find examples with 15k miles. The packs have held up very well - mine had lost at most 5% of its range, if that. So, assume 22kWh capacity left, that should be worth $4k alone by the author's metrics.
semi-extrinsic 10y ago
I agree it's terrible; even from TFA's opening paragraph: > if electric utilities were to pay $15,000 per battery, the battery alone in a 10-year-old Tesla would retain more value than an entire vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine (ICE). a) why would a utility pay that much ($2.2/cell) for a bunch of heavily-used 18650s when you can buy lightly-used 18650s on eBay today cheaper? b) if you look up used 2007 Mercedes S550 for sale in the US, you'll see plenty that sell for $15k+.
- daveguy 10y ago
  a) surprise. Those "lightly used" cells aren't lightly used. Have you ever bought them? Cheap eBay cells are garbage.
  - semi-extrinsic 10y ago
    Sure, I've bought a few, and my experience is "used LG/Panasonic/etc 18650s" are about as good as "new Ultrafire/TrustFire/etc. 18650s"
epistasis 10y ago
$4k sounds like a market failure, and probably Chrysler Fiat mismanaging the project. They treat the 500e with utter contempt. If there's 18 kWh of the 24 kWh left, that's just $222/kWh. That would be a fantastic battery system for an off the grid home.
- pjc50 10y ago
  Well, it's a "compliance car": http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/fiat/500/87129/sergio-marchionne-asks-customers-not-to-buy-fiat-500e http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/fiat/500/87129/sergio-marchionn... . It would be far better if they took the idea seriously and did a proper electric car. Pity, because I quite like the styling. They're nowhere near that cheap in the UK (ebay has exactly one, at £11,000) while Leaves are widely available. Depreciation seems to be brutal for electric cars, and not just for the battery. It's more like the mobile phone market in the early 2010s: every year brings new features and is noticeably better.
  - epistasis 10y ago
    I had one, and absolutely loved it. It was great when I had my own house and could charge easily, and also had space for a second gasoline car that I could use for longer trips. When I moved to an apartment with backwards landlords that wouldn't let me use an outlet by the car, it had to go sadly. For $4k it's an absolute steal for a daily commuter car. It made me realize that driving could be a fun activity.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
baybal2 10y ago
There is no such thing as a market price for a lithium battery. Even standard sized cells are far from a tradeable commodity. Things like double digit subsidies and grants for eco-* stuffs in China and EU distort the picture. What it means is that biggest Chinese EV makers with big enough GR-office can get cells for 20% of what is a wholesale price for Western buyer. Chinese complain that 2kw/h battery packs for scooters cost $400 retail. They probably don't know how much they cost in US.
londons_explore 10y ago
The 18650 cell is fairly standardized though. One might imagine a machine to rapidly tear the cells out of car battery packs, automatically test each cell, and then reassemble the rest into a new utility level pack. It might turn out to be better to just grind the whole lot up in a fire suppressing environment, extract the lithium metal, and remake the cells from scratch though.
woodandsteel 10y ago
>it assumes that the cost of a kWh of battery remains at today's high value. If battery costs are falling rapidly (and they are), then the value of a used battery pack will be driven down as inexpensive new packs come on the market Good point. However, this also means that utilities are going to adopt renewables a lot more since storage will be getting cheaper.

greglindahl 10y ago

Where does the author give a battery resale value for the Fiat 500e? Since it has a small battery, it degrades much faster per mile than a large battery.

gcb0 10y ago
it weights 1/3 of tesla so it degrades 3x slower
- _ph_ 10y ago
  What has the weight of the battery to do with degradation speed? It is the cycle count which determines battery aging, and for the same distance driven, a Tesla has far fewer battery cycles than a smaller vehicle. The energy consumption of a Tesla is higher than that of smaller vehicles, but by a surprisingly small amount, as kinetic energy can be (partially) recovered. At highway speeds, a Tesla even sometimes consumes less energy than some smaller EV due to its better aerodynamics.
  - gcb0 10y ago
    weight of vehicle. battery degradation is proportional to energy x time. if you need 3x more to push all that weight, is it is dead 3x earlier. it's just like how you waste breaks 3x faster breaking a cayenne instead of a sedan.
swiley 10y ago
After some googling I actually can't even find a place to buy replacements so I can price them (maybe I'm thinking about this wrong?) For a car, $4k sounds low enough that if it doesn't work out it's not /that/ big a deal. These used EVs sound great for someone that just wants to try the idea out without becoming totally invested.
URSpider94 10y ago
My point was that these are 3-year-old cars, most with light usage. It's easy to find examples with 15k miles. The packs have held up very well - mine had lost at most 5% of its range, if that. So, assume 22kWh capacity left, that should be worth $4k alone by the author's metrics.

semi-extrinsic 10y ago

I agree it's terrible; even from TFA's opening paragraph: > if electric utilities were to pay $15,000 per battery, the battery alone in a 10-year-old Tesla would retain more value than an entire vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine (ICE). a) why would a utility pay that much ($2.2/cell) for a bunch of heavily-used 18650s when you can buy lightly-used 18650s on eBay today cheaper? b) if you look up used 2007 Mercedes S550 for sale in the US, you'll see plenty that sell for $15k+.

daveguy 10y ago
a) surprise. Those "lightly used" cells aren't lightly used. Have you ever bought them? Cheap eBay cells are garbage.
- semi-extrinsic 10y ago
  Sure, I've bought a few, and my experience is "used LG/Panasonic/etc 18650s" are about as good as "new Ultrafire/TrustFire/etc. 18650s"

epistasis 10y ago

$4k sounds like a market failure, and probably Chrysler Fiat mismanaging the project. They treat the 500e with utter contempt. If there's 18 kWh of the 24 kWh left, that's just $222/kWh. That would be a fantastic battery system for an off the grid home.

pjc50 10y ago
Well, it's a "compliance car": http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/fiat/500/87129/sergio-marchionne-asks-customers-not-to-buy-fiat-500e http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/fiat/500/87129/sergio-marchionn... . It would be far better if they took the idea seriously and did a proper electric car. Pity, because I quite like the styling. They're nowhere near that cheap in the UK (ebay has exactly one, at £11,000) while Leaves are widely available. Depreciation seems to be brutal for electric cars, and not just for the battery. It's more like the mobile phone market in the early 2010s: every year brings new features and is noticeably better.
- epistasis 10y ago
  I had one, and absolutely loved it. It was great when I had my own house and could charge easily, and also had space for a second gasoline car that I could use for longer trips. When I moved to an apartment with backwards landlords that wouldn't let me use an outlet by the car, it had to go sadly. For $4k it's an absolute steal for a daily commuter car. It made me realize that driving could be a fun activity.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]

baybal2 10y ago

There is no such thing as a market price for a lithium battery. Even standard sized cells are far from a tradeable commodity. Things like double digit subsidies and grants for eco-* stuffs in China and EU distort the picture. What it means is that biggest Chinese EV makers with big enough GR-office can get cells for 20% of what is a wholesale price for Western buyer. Chinese complain that 2kw/h battery packs for scooters cost $400 retail. They probably don't know how much they cost in US.

londons_explore 10y ago

The 18650 cell is fairly standardized though. One might imagine a machine to rapidly tear the cells out of car battery packs, automatically test each cell, and then reassemble the rest into a new utility level pack. It might turn out to be better to just grind the whole lot up in a fire suppressing environment, extract the lithium metal, and remake the cells from scratch though.

woodandsteel 10y ago

>it assumes that the cost of a kWh of battery remains at today's high value. If battery costs are falling rapidly (and they are), then the value of a used battery pack will be driven down as inexpensive new packs come on the market Good point. However, this also means that utilities are going to adopt renewables a lot more since storage will be getting cheaper.