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I mean there's a rational financial reason why someone optimistic about self-driving cars would be hesitant to take your bet -- they're magnifying their risk wr
by nostromo95 10y ago
I mean there's a rational financial reason why someone optimistic about self-driving cars would be hesitant to take your bet -- they're magnifying their risk wrt self-driving cars, so if the technology doesn't come to fruition they're doubly screwed. If anything they'd rather take the opposite side of the bet so they can hedge.
- seibelj 10y agoIt's more about people publicly putting their name against me, which I would post on my website, saying to the world that they actually think self driving cars are going to happen. I would like people actually in the tech industry to bet against me, not people looking to make money. It's more a reality check about who is willing to put their money where their mouth is, because I think there are few. I think a fair wager would be, "On March 26th 2022 at 2am, 830am, 5pm, and 11pm, a self driving call will legally take seibelj from [his address] in Boston to [address] in Cambridge. The car will require no human intervention and it will arrive at the destination regardless of time, weather, traffic, and construction."
- nostromo95 10y agoHa, I'd still say it's possible for people to believe (say, >75% probability) that self-driving cars will come in the next five years AND have a good reason not to take you up on the bet. Namely, in the event they lose the bet they NOT ONLY (a) don't get to enjoy self-driving cars, (b) don't see a return on whatever time/financial investment they made into the technology and (c) lose $1000 to you, but they also (d) are publicly embarrassed on your website.