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Is anyone interested in making a public bet with me about autonomous vehicles? I'm thinking something like, we publicly state that within 5 years a self-driving

by seibelj 10y ago

Is anyone interested in making a public bet with me about autonomous vehicles? I'm thinking something like, we publicly state that within 5 years a self-driving car will be able to take me from my apartment in Boston to my work in Cambridge, regardless of weather, time of day, etc. If it can, I pay you $1000, if it can't, you pay me $1000. Basically I'm getting super annoyed at people claiming self driving cars are right around the corner, which I've been reading for a decade, but it's always "just 5 years away". I would love to counter arguments with, "If you are so convinced why not bet me $1000?"

onewland 10y ago
I'd consider that bet on non-1:1 odds. You could submit a more strict version of it as a category on PredictIt.
nostromo95 10y ago
I mean there's a rational financial reason why someone optimistic about self-driving cars would be hesitant to take your bet -- they're magnifying their risk wrt self-driving cars, so if the technology doesn't come to fruition they're doubly screwed. If anything they'd rather take the opposite side of the bet so they can hedge.
- seibelj 10y ago
  It's more about people publicly putting their name against me, which I would post on my website, saying to the world that they actually think self driving cars are going to happen. I would like people actually in the tech industry to bet against me, not people looking to make money. It's more a reality check about who is willing to put their money where their mouth is, because I think there are few. I think a fair wager would be, "On March 26th 2022 at 2am, 830am, 5pm, and 11pm, a self driving call will legally take seibelj from [his address] in Boston to [address] in Cambridge. The car will require no human intervention and it will arrive at the destination regardless of time, weather, traffic, and construction."
  - nostromo95 10y ago
    Ha, I'd still say it's possible for people to believe (say, >75% probability) that self-driving cars will come in the next five years AND have a good reason not to take you up on the bet. Namely, in the event they lose the bet they NOT ONLY (a) don't get to enjoy self-driving cars, (b) don't see a return on whatever time/financial investment they made into the technology and (c) lose $1000 to you, but they also (d) are publicly embarrassed on your website.
stale2002 10y ago
"regardless of weather, time of day, " Thats difficult. People who talk about "self driving cars 5 years away" aren't usually talking about mythical level 5 self driving that is actually 40 years away. They are talking about level 3, which basically means, "end to end travel, in 90% of situations". Just like how 1/10 times you might not be able to flag down a taxi cab, today, 1/10 times you won't be able to get the self driving taxi to go EXACTLY where you need to go. But it will work for most situations, most of time, and thats good enough. (IE, imagine if 90% of taxi drivers or truck drivers were made obsolete. That is industry destroying)
- seibelj 10y ago
  I would make an exception for snow, but not for rain or night. Although I think being unable to cope with snow is a pretty significant issue. About "5 years away", I've been reading the same dream of all cars being self driving for so many years. I distinctly remember an after-work party in 2010 where a coworker with a phobia of driving going on about how self driving cars would soon be driving him around. Everything I hear today has been repeated for so long.
- mlonkibjuyhv 10y ago
  So on days conditions are bad, the city comes to a stand-still?
  - stale2002 10y ago
    No. On days where self driving cars don't work, price goes up, and the market puts more humans on the road. So 10% of the time you pay the normal taxi price that you pay now, and 90% of the time you get the super cheap self driving price. That's still awesome!
    - prolly_a_moron 10y ago
      >No. On days where self driving cars don't work, price goes up, and the market puts more humans on the road. So all these humans are just hanging around waiting for it to snow so that they have the pleasure of driving other people around? The market will react instantaneously? Or are they doing other gigs in the meantime, like delivering people's lunches, laundry, groceries et al?
throwaway2016a 10y ago
> will be able to take me from my apartment in Boston to my work in Cambridge, regardless of weather, time of day, etc. Having driven from my apartment (at the time) in Boston to my job in Lexington going through Cambridge every day for almost two years... I will NOT take that bet and I'm pretty optimistic about self driving cars :P But, they don't need to replace all driving overnight. They just need to replace a portion of driving to have a big impact. Although, I often wonder if driving like muscles can become atrophied and if we end up with a situation like: "the car will drive me in fair whether but I need to drive myself when it snows"... if my body will forget how to drive by the time winter comes.
saosebastiao 10y ago
I'd be willing to side with you on that bet.
mrkgnao 10y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market?
lojack 10y ago
If I thought autonomous cars would be ready in 5 years, I'd be extremely hesitant to take that bet, specifically with regard to weather. Personally, just around the corner means 10 years in the top 50% of weather. Operating in a blizzard may be very far away, and I'm fine with that. Would I take this bet? Probably not, but I'm passively optimistic.
- seibelj 10y ago
  The weather is one thing, but I would argue that city driving in Boston itself is worse. It's survival of the fittest driving. If, for example, getting right up to the bumper of a self-driving car and honking makes the self-driving car pull over, every driver in Boston will do this, and the self-driving car will be stuck on the curb. You just can't imagine what drivers here are like until you live it.
blhack 10y ago
Just for context, here is where self-driving cars were 10 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xibwwNVLgg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xibwwNVLgg
- shpx 10y ago
  This is where they were in 1989. https://youtu.be/VwwB6xcx8Wg https://youtu.be/VwwB6xcx8Wg http://www.theverge.com/2016/11/27/13752344/alvinn-self-driving-car-1989-cmu-navlab http://www.theverge.com/2016/11/27/13752344/alvinn-self-driv...
- shpx 10y ago
  This is where they were in 1989 https://youtu.be/VwwB6xcx8Wg https://youtu.be/VwwB6xcx8Wg

by seibelj 10y ago

onewland 10y ago

I'd consider that bet on non-1:1 odds. You could submit a more strict version of it as a category on PredictIt.

nostromo95 10y ago

I mean there's a rational financial reason why someone optimistic about self-driving cars would be hesitant to take your bet -- they're magnifying their risk wrt self-driving cars, so if the technology doesn't come to fruition they're doubly screwed. If anything they'd rather take the opposite side of the bet so they can hedge.

seibelj 10y ago
It's more about people publicly putting their name against me, which I would post on my website, saying to the world that they actually think self driving cars are going to happen. I would like people actually in the tech industry to bet against me, not people looking to make money. It's more a reality check about who is willing to put their money where their mouth is, because I think there are few. I think a fair wager would be, "On March 26th 2022 at 2am, 830am, 5pm, and 11pm, a self driving call will legally take seibelj from [his address] in Boston to [address] in Cambridge. The car will require no human intervention and it will arrive at the destination regardless of time, weather, traffic, and construction."
- nostromo95 10y ago
  Ha, I'd still say it's possible for people to believe (say, >75% probability) that self-driving cars will come in the next five years AND have a good reason not to take you up on the bet. Namely, in the event they lose the bet they NOT ONLY (a) don't get to enjoy self-driving cars, (b) don't see a return on whatever time/financial investment they made into the technology and (c) lose $1000 to you, but they also (d) are publicly embarrassed on your website.

stale2002 10y ago

"regardless of weather, time of day, " Thats difficult. People who talk about "self driving cars 5 years away" aren't usually talking about mythical level 5 self driving that is actually 40 years away. They are talking about level 3, which basically means, "end to end travel, in 90% of situations". Just like how 1/10 times you might not be able to flag down a taxi cab, today, 1/10 times you won't be able to get the self driving taxi to go EXACTLY where you need to go. But it will work for most situations, most of time, and thats good enough. (IE, imagine if 90% of taxi drivers or truck drivers were made obsolete. That is industry destroying)

seibelj 10y ago
I would make an exception for snow, but not for rain or night. Although I think being unable to cope with snow is a pretty significant issue. About "5 years away", I've been reading the same dream of all cars being self driving for so many years. I distinctly remember an after-work party in 2010 where a coworker with a phobia of driving going on about how self driving cars would soon be driving him around. Everything I hear today has been repeated for so long.
mlonkibjuyhv 10y ago
So on days conditions are bad, the city comes to a stand-still?
- stale2002 10y ago
  No. On days where self driving cars don't work, price goes up, and the market puts more humans on the road. So 10% of the time you pay the normal taxi price that you pay now, and 90% of the time you get the super cheap self driving price. That's still awesome!
  - prolly_a_moron 10y ago
    >No. On days where self driving cars don't work, price goes up, and the market puts more humans on the road. So all these humans are just hanging around waiting for it to snow so that they have the pleasure of driving other people around? The market will react instantaneously? Or are they doing other gigs in the meantime, like delivering people's lunches, laundry, groceries et al?

throwaway2016a 10y ago

> will be able to take me from my apartment in Boston to my work in Cambridge, regardless of weather, time of day, etc. Having driven from my apartment (at the time) in Boston to my job in Lexington going through Cambridge every day for almost two years... I will NOT take that bet and I'm pretty optimistic about self driving cars :P But, they don't need to replace all driving overnight. They just need to replace a portion of driving to have a big impact. Although, I often wonder if driving like muscles can become atrophied and if we end up with a situation like: "the car will drive me in fair whether but I need to drive myself when it snows"... if my body will forget how to drive by the time winter comes.

saosebastiao 10y ago

I'd be willing to side with you on that bet.

mrkgnao 10y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market?

lojack 10y ago

If I thought autonomous cars would be ready in 5 years, I'd be extremely hesitant to take that bet, specifically with regard to weather. Personally, just around the corner means 10 years in the top 50% of weather. Operating in a blizzard may be very far away, and I'm fine with that. Would I take this bet? Probably not, but I'm passively optimistic.

seibelj 10y ago
The weather is one thing, but I would argue that city driving in Boston itself is worse. It's survival of the fittest driving. If, for example, getting right up to the bumper of a self-driving car and honking makes the self-driving car pull over, every driver in Boston will do this, and the self-driving car will be stuck on the curb. You just can't imagine what drivers here are like until you live it.

blhack 10y ago

Just for context, here is where self-driving cars were 10 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xibwwNVLgg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xibwwNVLgg

shpx 10y ago
This is where they were in 1989. https://youtu.be/VwwB6xcx8Wg https://youtu.be/VwwB6xcx8Wg http://www.theverge.com/2016/11/27/13752344/alvinn-self-driving-car-1989-cmu-navlab http://www.theverge.com/2016/11/27/13752344/alvinn-self-driv...
shpx 10y ago
This is where they were in 1989 https://youtu.be/VwwB6xcx8Wg https://youtu.be/VwwB6xcx8Wg