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If Uber were a publicly traded company I'd be buying as much stock as possible right now. All I see is total hysteria over completely surmountable setbacks. Peo

If Uber were a publicly traded company I'd be buying as much stock as possible right now. All I see is total hysteria over completely surmountable setbacks. People want your statements to feel true because they have beef with Uber's culture, business practice, etc. so they're bending their perception of every event to fit their model. This is a discussion thread about how a self-driving car that was, according to evidence so far, hit by another driver who failed to yield. And basically every comment is talking about how reckless and irresponsible the company is, and intimating that it was probably Uber's fault. Everyone is just having the conversation they want to have, regardless of how it contacts reality. "Their existing business is loosing [sic] money in most places with no end in sight." According to whom, you? Why should I be even slightly credulous that this company with massive market penetration and a product people want has no wherewithal to turn a profit? This whole thread is pure platitude. "Kalanick and his bros are sociopaths". Sure. Keep operating in those terms and see where it gets you. I'm going to stay here on planet Earth, thank you.

HeavenBanned 10y ago
It's like this on every single thread on HN re: Uber. It's maddeningly out of touch. Uber is fine.
M_Grey 10y ago
Around the issue of this crash? Yes. Around the issue of how much Uber needs self-driving to pan out, now? Not so much. Around the reality that Kalanick is bad news, and at the same time utterly in control? Not at all. I see what you're talking about, but overall I see (although not necessarily in this thread) people talking about Uber operating a VC subsidized per-ride loss, and just how much they need self-driving to pan out in a hurry.
- sebastos 10y ago
  Fair points. If I were a VC, I wouldn't be thrilled with Kalanick at the helm, even if I wasn't about to sell sell sell. I get why people might be concerned about the operating losses, at least to first order. But I just don't see the structure of how people think this disintegration is going to happen. To me, it looks like a very solid business model that makes tons of cash and spends tons of cash (like Amazon). I don't see some kind of tower of Babel built entirely on the perception of value that could topple at any moment (Twitter). People love using ride-sharing apps, and there's no way that's going to change in the near future. Even if their self-driving-car play isn't working out, I don't see why it has to pan out _now_. They can always just fall back on their massively successful core business..
orthoganol 10y ago
This is the most absurd comment of this thread, hand waving away every major problem or scandal Uber has had even in just the last year. Uber self-driving cars blew 6 red lights in their 1 week San Francisco autonomous testing run, and lied to everyone saying it was not the technology's fault - it was, thanks to documents sent to NYT. They are on track to lose 3 billion this year. 3 billion. Their self driving golden parachute/ bail-out plan has been a disaster so far, in terms of the clearly not-ready technology and Google's lawsuit. Even ignoring the deep flaws of their executives - bragging about threatening journalists, instituting a culture of sexism and abuse, berating their own Uber drivers - your response is still "Everyone is wrong, everything is amazing at Uber, and I won't even offer any details why." Thanks for this wonderful contribution to HN.
- sebastos 10y ago
  Your whole comment is a perfect demonstration of what I'm saying. My point is not that Uber has no problems, but rather that people are blowing things out of proportion because they've taken an emotional dislike for the company. So people see what they want to see. For instance, you see 3 billion in losses. In 2015 Q4, Uber generated $560M in net revenue. In 2016 Q1, $960M. Q2: $1100M. Q3: $1320M, and Q4: $1584M. I see massive growth, and massive expenditures into R&D which could be halted with relative ease if solvency becomes a problem. You see the self-driving program as a boondoggle, and you see 6 blown red lights in 1 week as just a taste of nonfunctional technology that would have only caused more and more damage the more time it was allowed to be on the road. I see people trying to solve a difficult technical problem, and having some issues in an initial run-up test. You see a company whose executives routinely berate their own Uber drivers. I see one dashcam video where the CEO has a human debate with one of his drivers, which has been extrapolated into a portrait of "the type of person this Kalanick guy really is". I'm _not_ saying that they don't have their problems, or that it's impossible Uber is going to run into financial or regulatory trouble. But this sky-is-falling talk is not for me.
  - ThomPete 10y ago
    I am pretty concerned about the pricing and subsidizing of said prizing. Its unsustainable for the drivers and uber in the long run.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
vacri 10y ago
Transport is a tough industry with a lot of knowledgable competitors, and is a significant 'big data' consumer. It has thin margins. Uber can do what it does because it's burning through capital, but there's a reason why financially-sustainable people-moving companies don't drive all shiny new vehicles and offer bottled water to their passengers. If you want to talk about reality, then talk about sustainable financials in the transport industry.
Saul85 10y ago
Regardless of what you think of Kalanick there are legitimate questions about the business model. I see many people claim things like "They lose money because they spend on R%D". I have not been able to see the most recent year but leaked numbers from prior years show that even if you cut R&D to zero they still lost money. In the more recent year I have not seen the breakout for R&D but the losses scale with revenues by quarter which is not what you would expect to see if they had a fixed R&D budget cutting into profits. I also see many wildly overoptimistic estimates of how much driverless cars would increase their margins. For example you see absurd statements like "driverless cars can produce revenue 24 hrs a day". Demand for rides is not constant 24 hrs a day. To meet peak demand (which is critical to their competitiveness with alternatives) you will have many cars idle off peak. That means parking (costs money) or driving empty wasting money. Many others have pointed out some of the many costs currently born by drivers that somebody still has to pay. You can debate the exact cost of all those things but it is definitely not zero. I am not saying it is impossible for them to make changes and make money but until I saw detailed numbers and a plan to increase margins I would not invest my money.

HeavenBanned 10y ago

It's like this on every single thread on HN re: Uber. It's maddeningly out of touch. Uber is fine.

M_Grey 10y ago

Around the issue of this crash? Yes. Around the issue of how much Uber needs self-driving to pan out, now? Not so much. Around the reality that Kalanick is bad news, and at the same time utterly in control? Not at all. I see what you're talking about, but overall I see (although not necessarily in this thread) people talking about Uber operating a VC subsidized per-ride loss, and just how much they need self-driving to pan out in a hurry.

sebastos 10y ago
Fair points. If I were a VC, I wouldn't be thrilled with Kalanick at the helm, even if I wasn't about to sell sell sell. I get why people might be concerned about the operating losses, at least to first order. But I just don't see the structure of how people think this disintegration is going to happen. To me, it looks like a very solid business model that makes tons of cash and spends tons of cash (like Amazon). I don't see some kind of tower of Babel built entirely on the perception of value that could topple at any moment (Twitter). People love using ride-sharing apps, and there's no way that's going to change in the near future. Even if their self-driving-car play isn't working out, I don't see why it has to pan out _now_. They can always just fall back on their massively successful core business..

orthoganol 10y ago

This is the most absurd comment of this thread, hand waving away every major problem or scandal Uber has had even in just the last year. Uber self-driving cars blew 6 red lights in their 1 week San Francisco autonomous testing run, and lied to everyone saying it was not the technology's fault - it was, thanks to documents sent to NYT. They are on track to lose 3 billion this year. 3 billion. Their self driving golden parachute/ bail-out plan has been a disaster so far, in terms of the clearly not-ready technology and Google's lawsuit. Even ignoring the deep flaws of their executives - bragging about threatening journalists, instituting a culture of sexism and abuse, berating their own Uber drivers - your response is still "Everyone is wrong, everything is amazing at Uber, and I won't even offer any details why." Thanks for this wonderful contribution to HN.

sebastos 10y ago
Your whole comment is a perfect demonstration of what I'm saying. My point is not that Uber has no problems, but rather that people are blowing things out of proportion because they've taken an emotional dislike for the company. So people see what they want to see. For instance, you see 3 billion in losses. In 2015 Q4, Uber generated $560M in net revenue. In 2016 Q1, $960M. Q2: $1100M. Q3: $1320M, and Q4: $1584M. I see massive growth, and massive expenditures into R&D which could be halted with relative ease if solvency becomes a problem. You see the self-driving program as a boondoggle, and you see 6 blown red lights in 1 week as just a taste of nonfunctional technology that would have only caused more and more damage the more time it was allowed to be on the road. I see people trying to solve a difficult technical problem, and having some issues in an initial run-up test. You see a company whose executives routinely berate their own Uber drivers. I see one dashcam video where the CEO has a human debate with one of his drivers, which has been extrapolated into a portrait of "the type of person this Kalanick guy really is". I'm _not_ saying that they don't have their problems, or that it's impossible Uber is going to run into financial or regulatory trouble. But this sky-is-falling talk is not for me.
- ThomPete 10y ago
  I am pretty concerned about the pricing and subsidizing of said prizing. Its unsustainable for the drivers and uber in the long run.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

vacri 10y ago

Transport is a tough industry with a lot of knowledgable competitors, and is a significant 'big data' consumer. It has thin margins. Uber can do what it does because it's burning through capital, but there's a reason why financially-sustainable people-moving companies don't drive all shiny new vehicles and offer bottled water to their passengers. If you want to talk about reality, then talk about sustainable financials in the transport industry.

Saul85 10y ago

Regardless of what you think of Kalanick there are legitimate questions about the business model. I see many people claim things like "They lose money because they spend on R%D". I have not been able to see the most recent year but leaked numbers from prior years show that even if you cut R&D to zero they still lost money. In the more recent year I have not seen the breakout for R&D but the losses scale with revenues by quarter which is not what you would expect to see if they had a fixed R&D budget cutting into profits. I also see many wildly overoptimistic estimates of how much driverless cars would increase their margins. For example you see absurd statements like "driverless cars can produce revenue 24 hrs a day". Demand for rides is not constant 24 hrs a day. To meet peak demand (which is critical to their competitiveness with alternatives) you will have many cars idle off peak. That means parking (costs money) or driving empty wasting money. Many others have pointed out some of the many costs currently born by drivers that somebody still has to pay. You can debate the exact cost of all those things but it is definitely not zero. I am not saying it is impossible for them to make changes and make money but until I saw detailed numbers and a plan to increase margins I would not invest my money.