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> So Intel, like Sun, will be trapped at the high-end of irrelevance? It is too early to tell, but there is a large risk of this. Intel has tried several time
by gvb 16y ago
> So Intel, like Sun, will be trapped at the high-end of irrelevance?
It is too early to tell, but there is a large risk of this. Intel has tried several times to break out of, go beyond, the x86 architecture and has mostly failed at this.
Examples are:
* iAPX 432 "object oriented" processor - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_iAPX_432 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_iAPX_432
* i960 RISC processor - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_i960 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_i960
* Itanium VLIW processor which has had limited succes - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itanium http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itanium
* Larrabee - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larrabee_(microarchitecture) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larrabee_(microarchitecture)
> Is Apple pulling the same catch-up maneuver with "good enough" general computing capabilities on the iPad? (Or are they going to be trapped at the high end of irrelevance by Google and Android on commodity multitouch tablets?)
The Innovator's Dilemma focuses on the niche markets where companies hone their skills, and then the niche markets "expand upwards" into a commodity market, undercutting and toppling the market leaders.
Apple is a very interesting company from the Innovator's Dilemma point of view. They have a interesting history of creating innovations themselves and also commanding a premium for those innovations. I think Apple's "secret sauce" is to create innovations in style (especially) and implementation (It Just Works[tm]) which are very difficult for competitors to duplicate. This allows them to both be a market leader and command a price premium. Essentially Apple has been successful in self-defining their market in such a way as to exclude the innovator's dilemma.
What I'm trying to say is, if you let the market define you, you are vulnerable to the innovator's dilemma. Apple does an incredible job of defining their own market and not conceding that control to outside forces. They do this, not by asking customers what they want (and thus being constrained by their customers' imaginations), but by being more imaginative than their customers.
Henry Ford supposedly said "If I’d asked people what they wanted, they would have asked for a better horse." http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Ford#.22If_I.E2.80.99d_asked_people_what_they_wanted.2C_they_would_have_asked_for_a_better_horse.22 http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Ford#.22If_I.E2.80.9...
- hga 16y agoThey also failed with the VLIW i860 RISC processor. I think it's too early to count Larrabee out; it was a failure at hitting its market window for a stand along GPU, but that doesn't mean it won't eventually make it there or that it won't find other e.g. HPC uses. Although it is a x86_64 design. ADDED: Larrabee is anything but dead: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1392534 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1392534 http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/2010/20100531comp.htm http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/2010/2010053... http://www.xtremesystems.org/forums/showthread.php?p=4413541 http://www.xtremesystems.org/forums/showthread.php?p=4413541 Their 48 cores of 32 bit x86s chip with no hardware cache coherency experiment might also bear fruit (ADDED: the follow on Knights Corner (22nm, > 50 cores and not all of them x86) to the above might incorporate some of its technology), but for now that's a Zero units project (i.e. they'll ship around 50 parts to various research labs to play with it). And they did "break out" of the original x86 by moving to AMD's x86_64, which is wildly successful....