5 ms·

Call me stupid, but I think computing will be much different to worry about this. ( single chip os or iot to the level that each hardware component is separate,

Call me stupid, but I think computing will be much different to worry about this. ( single chip os or iot to the level that each hardware component is separate, or something else...)

abritinthebay 10y ago
Yes, they thought that in the 70s too. Not stupid, just naive
ryan-c 10y ago
I'm pretty sure that's exactly what they figured when they designed it in the first place, and here we are many decades later, still living with it.
gregmac 10y ago
There are still lots of systems from the 70's and 80's running today. There are many PDP and VAX systems that run parts of the US military, such as missile defense and nuclear ICBM systems. Many airlines and insurance agencies also run on mainframes from that era. Even if they don't run the actual hardware, they're likely to be running the same software and OS on an emulator running inside modern hardware. It's simply too expensive and risky to rewrite all the software on a new platform.
- sedachv 10y ago
  You can buy new PDP-11 and VAX hardware to run Unibus/Q-bus based industrial control systems today: http://logical-co.com/ http://logical-co.com/
Aardwolf 10y ago
21 years ago was 1996. How different is computing now compared to 1996? Do you consider 2017 vs 2038 to probably have more difference or less difference than 1996 vs 2017? If more difference, do you expect technology to accelerate faster in the next 21 years than the last 21 years, and why?
- beamatronic 10y ago
  >> How different is computing now compared to 1996? Distributed computing went from being "something that is possible" to "the default". Otherwise, all the standard resources such as processors, RAM, disk, and networking all got faster and cheaper. USB revolutionized plugging in peripherals. All the CRT displays are gone. From the Linux command line point of view, you're more likely to use tools written with python, perl, or ruby, but the big change there is package managers. You don't download source or binaries from FTP sites as often as you did in the old days.
  - Aardwolf 10y ago
    That would also apply for 1996 vs 2005 :/
swalsh 10y ago
Not a chance. Even if we completely redesign computer architecture in the next 21 years. Old legacy systems that "still work" will continue hanging around doing the important stuff. There are mainframe systems in insurance companies still running code from the 1970's.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
njharman 10y ago
> Call me stupid, Well I won't say you are stupid. But do you realize we are talking about a time format "designed" 40+ years ago. And some cpus are still compatible with chips from 80's 90's. To imagine all that will go away and be solved in 20 years is not logical. Also, the problem isn't with PCs (which will be upgraded) but the billions of IoT, industrial controls, and other embedded devices that lack easy upgrade paths. Things like elevators, pressure release valves, cars.
- keithpeter 10y ago
  I'd add trains to your list. There are locomotives in use in UK that use electronics (I admit not microprocessor based and not running an actual operating system) dating from 1980s. The ones currently being designed may have similar active service times.
mrweasel 10y ago
True, but this isn't a problem for the hardware and software that will be produced in 2037. The problem is all the stuff that will be built today, and last for 30 years. We're already bordering on it being a little late. Y2K sucked for the developers of 1999, but they had few computers to worry about. They where less interconnected and all the Unix/Linux based system wasn't at risk. Imaging trying to patch or replace just 20% of the embedded devices when we get to 2036. What fascinates me is that we didn't start addressing the issue right after Y2K. Perhaps we would have if more computers had failed.
PeterisP 10y ago
The problem is that if you want to manufacture a device that will last 20 years without updating its software, then you have to fix this issue within a year - otherwise the washing machine, car, stereo or whatever you release with embedded chips and currently standard software can fail in interesting ways in 2038.
- j3097736 10y ago
  I don't really see the problem with cars, none of the important parts require time
  - sedachv 10y ago
    Most backup cameras already work via the center entertainment console LCD and the trend is for climate control to move there too.

Call me stupid, but I think computing will be much different to worry about this. ( single chip os or iot to the level that each hardware component is separate, or something else...)

abritinthebay 10y ago

Yes, they thought that in the 70s too. Not stupid, just naive

ryan-c 10y ago

I'm pretty sure that's exactly what they figured when they designed it in the first place, and here we are many decades later, still living with it.

gregmac 10y ago

There are still lots of systems from the 70's and 80's running today. There are many PDP and VAX systems that run parts of the US military, such as missile defense and nuclear ICBM systems. Many airlines and insurance agencies also run on mainframes from that era. Even if they don't run the actual hardware, they're likely to be running the same software and OS on an emulator running inside modern hardware. It's simply too expensive and risky to rewrite all the software on a new platform.

sedachv 10y ago
You can buy new PDP-11 and VAX hardware to run Unibus/Q-bus based industrial control systems today: http://logical-co.com/ http://logical-co.com/

Aardwolf 10y ago

21 years ago was 1996. How different is computing now compared to 1996? Do you consider 2017 vs 2038 to probably have more difference or less difference than 1996 vs 2017? If more difference, do you expect technology to accelerate faster in the next 21 years than the last 21 years, and why?

beamatronic 10y ago
>> How different is computing now compared to 1996? Distributed computing went from being "something that is possible" to "the default". Otherwise, all the standard resources such as processors, RAM, disk, and networking all got faster and cheaper. USB revolutionized plugging in peripherals. All the CRT displays are gone. From the Linux command line point of view, you're more likely to use tools written with python, perl, or ruby, but the big change there is package managers. You don't download source or binaries from FTP sites as often as you did in the old days.
- Aardwolf 10y ago
  That would also apply for 1996 vs 2005 :/

swalsh 10y ago

Not a chance. Even if we completely redesign computer architecture in the next 21 years. Old legacy systems that "still work" will continue hanging around doing the important stuff. There are mainframe systems in insurance companies still running code from the 1970's.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

njharman 10y ago

> Call me stupid, Well I won't say you are stupid. But do you realize we are talking about a time format "designed" 40+ years ago. And some cpus are still compatible with chips from 80's 90's. To imagine all that will go away and be solved in 20 years is not logical. Also, the problem isn't with PCs (which will be upgraded) but the billions of IoT, industrial controls, and other embedded devices that lack easy upgrade paths. Things like elevators, pressure release valves, cars.

keithpeter 10y ago
I'd add trains to your list. There are locomotives in use in UK that use electronics (I admit not microprocessor based and not running an actual operating system) dating from 1980s. The ones currently being designed may have similar active service times.

mrweasel 10y ago

True, but this isn't a problem for the hardware and software that will be produced in 2037. The problem is all the stuff that will be built today, and last for 30 years. We're already bordering on it being a little late. Y2K sucked for the developers of 1999, but they had few computers to worry about. They where less interconnected and all the Unix/Linux based system wasn't at risk. Imaging trying to patch or replace just 20% of the embedded devices when we get to 2036. What fascinates me is that we didn't start addressing the issue right after Y2K. Perhaps we would have if more computers had failed.

PeterisP 10y ago

The problem is that if you want to manufacture a device that will last 20 years without updating its software, then you have to fix this issue within a year - otherwise the washing machine, car, stereo or whatever you release with embedded chips and currently standard software can fail in interesting ways in 2038.

j3097736 10y ago
I don't really see the problem with cars, none of the important parts require time
- sedachv 10y ago
  Most backup cameras already work via the center entertainment console LCD and the trend is for climate control to move there too.