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AR will become mainstream at the point people see it as the norm in public. Apple's core advantage is that they set the standard for mobile smart devices and c
by saycheese 10y ago
AR will become mainstream at the point people see it as the norm in public.
Apple's core advantage is that they set the standard for mobile smart devices and consumer will follow them if they're able to gain momentum.
Question at that point swings back to how they'll try to do it, which becomes highly speculative.
If I had to guess, they'll morph the iPhone to a AR device like the morphed the iPod to a phone; meaning the first step is to add AR to the iPhone and gain traction.
- shadowmint 10y ago> they'll morph the iPhone to a AR device ...eventually, maybe; probably after someone else has first. The technology backing this is the stuff that the kinect was based on, by PrimeSense; it's for 3d spatial scanning, and it's super cool tech, but it's no more 'AR' than the kinect was or the leap motion was; turns out that even if you have a point cloud, AR is still hard. The sad thing is that there's no sign that Apple is actually building any kind of meaningful product with it. Any kind of competitive advantage Apple might have as a company hinges on them actually building something novel and meaningful in this space. I know they like to be all ninja and secret with their R&D, but you can't just hide in a closet for 6 months with a million dollars and pull out a strong AI; that sort of technological leap just doesn't happen very much any more, and certainly not without a lot of people noticing the massive amount of money it consumes to produce.
- saycheese 10y agoBeing first is irrelevant when it comes to being mainstream. Apple's iPod was not the first mobile digital music player, nor was the iPhone the first smartphone. Being novel also isn't that important. For example, Apple's white earphones played a major role in getting the public to see that their devices were mainstream, but there was nothing truly novel about them.
- ethbro 10y agoBeing first may be irrelevant, but if you're never first then someone else has to come up with the tech first. I believe parent comments are mostly making the point that we still have another generation before Apple would have anything sufficiently advanced enough that they could do their post-90s "polish and package" magic.
- saycheese 10y ago"Polish" is irrelevant as it relates to realism - what matters is people believe it adds value realitive to the cost to them, which includes the social impact it has on them.
- hyperpallium 10y agoYou're right in general, but iPhone was the first touchscreen smartphone. Today, (almost) all smartphones look like an iPhone. (Though Apple didn't invent the touchscreen.)
- saycheese 10y agoIBM Simon was the first phone with a touchscreen in 1992.
- ethbro 10y agoI'll just leave this here. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Simon https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Simon
- MagnumOpus 10y agoBeyond what the others are saying about IBM's Simon, Apple wasn't even the first with a capacitive touchscreen - they did it a year after the LG Prada...
- Cthulhu_ 10y agoThe iPhone already is an AR device though, and one of its first major apps was an AR application - Layar, back in 2009. One of its major apps has an AR component (Pokemon Go). I could see them making a Google Cardboard-like mounting bracket / dock for the iphone I guess, maybe with better cameras and sensors.
- saycheese 10y agoSpeculation is rising that Apple will add 3D sensing to give the phone a sense of depth to be used for augmented reality applications. 3D sensing is not a new technology and was initially adopted by Microsoft‘s Kinect and Lenovo‘s Tango-enabled Phab2 Pro.
- mulletbum 10y agoI think Google Glass is more where they will go. Except, just like the first iPhone, they will make it actually look like a normal pair of sunglasses. Apple has NEVER made new products, but they have refined existing products at key times to come out with something amazing. iPod, iPad, iPhone were not the first, but they were breakthrough staples that rules their area. Apple Glasses would do the same if done right.
- root_axis 10y ago> Except, just like the first iPhone, they will make it actually look like a normal pair of sunglasses. Not going to happen (any time soon). That's an insurmountable engineering challenge for the foreseeable future.
- MarkMc 10y agoLet's get specific: How long do you think it will be before Apple release iGlasses? 10 years?
- root_axis 10y agoI'm not sure when they will release a product in the vein of "iGlasses", but I'm certain they won't release an AR device that "looks like a normal pair of sunglasses" within 10 years. This isn't a situation where incremental progress will make this possible, there would need to be a fundamental breakthrough in battery and GPU efficiency that, while possible, is not necessary inevitable and definitely not on track within a predictable timeline.
- pmontra 10y agoAR will become mainstream, yes. Apple will do well in AR, maybe but future is difficult to forecast. Anyway, my prescription glasses are maybe 25 grams (0.89 ounces). I think the current technology is a long way from giving us something as light as that even if the bulk of it rests in our pocket. I expect to read about the upcoming AR revolution for many years.
- saycheese 10y agoAR is not only about eyes, nor does it require realistic overlay - all that's required is it's sync'd to reality and augments reality.