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I spent a year back in the 2000s living as a professional gambler. I know professional poker players. I write and operate "bots" that gamble on betting exchange
by PaulRobinson 10y ago
I spent a year back in the 2000s living as a professional gambler. I know professional poker players. I write and operate "bots" that gamble on betting exchanges automatically (effectively the sports/games version of algotrading) as my main hobby - 20+ hours/week, sometimes - and my accounts are net positive to my advantage (a feat accomplished by less than 0.5% of gamblers).
Whilst I enjoy a good old punt on a horse like many a Brit or Irish racing fan, and enjoy the odd bet on a football game or cricket match, I believe that I - and fellow gamblers I know who make a profit - do not actually gamble the way most people do.
We treat it more like insurers see the issuance of insurance. First, we'll look at data. Second, we realise money management - and liability exposure vs. income - is critical to success. We look for situations where there is an edge in our favour which we call "value". When we see an edge we can quantify, we'll exploit that using Kelly or Maximal Exponential Growth strategies.
Genuinely, I look at some sports events using techniques and strategies that would not look alien to a statistician who has trained to become an actuary. They have more data with stronger statistical significance, and their thinking may be more rigorous, but they are my inspiration: with the right numbers, you can model risk, and identify what odds you're prepared to accept and what odds you're not.
I will play in casino games for recreational fun, not for profit. Same with slots/fruit machines, lotteries, and so on. Tiny amounts of money. It is impossible to beat these beyond the medium term without some form of luck. In the long run, games with house advantage will only ever be won by the house who has the advantage.
Sport though? Something where I can do some data analysis and start finding informational arbitrage over others in the market? That's potentially investment. And so far, it's done me well.
And so the honest answer is, nothing much is different, it's just that most gamblers and most people who buy insurance are people who do so without thinking and without understanding mathematics and liability, etc.
A few of us though, a small number on Betfair or perhaps inside the sacred walls of Lloyds of London, see the World a little differently and play a game with maths at our side that few others are interested in playing.