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If you trade commodity futures, ask yourself: "Do I know more than the farmer? Do I know more than Nestle?" When you trade stocks, ask yourself: "Do I know mo
by mynameishere 16y ago
If you trade commodity futures, ask yourself: "Do I know more than the farmer? Do I know more than Nestle?" When you trade stocks, ask yourself: "Do I know more than Fidelity's advisers? Do I know more than Goldman's quantitative analysts? Do I know more than the insiders?". It's 50/50 up/down minus the spread, minus the fees.
- seb 16y agoDo I have less money in the market and am more flexible? Do my decisions don't change the market?
- chasingsparks 16y agoMore importantly for most of the members of HN, is this worth my time at all? If markets are inherently interesting to you and you want to spend (a lot of) time studying them, then great: go for it. If you are looking to slowly invest over the long-term, then just buy sporadically and hold. Otherwise, you are probably better off investing your time and money building something yourself, for reasons that completely ignore whether or not you are capable of doing well as a trader.
- jboydyhacker 16y agoI do not believe this is correct. Farmers are usually the last to know about fluctuations of commodity prices. Commodities are driven much more by macroeconomic trends that farmers cannot be expected to bother with. And as for stocks and a fidelity advisor. Oh man, that is also very very wrong. Stock picking is about seeing trends before others do and being gone before those trends end. The former is a relatively common trait, the latter is rarely intuitive and pretty rare.
- dtby 16y agoI love you; you pay my rent.