The value of the more permissive license is obvious - it ends up being the final license in the end because it never needs to be replaced in order to do anythin

The value of the more permissive license is obvious - it ends up being the final license in the end because it never needs to be replaced in order to do anything. Whereas spending billions to functionally reproduce code in order to replace one open source license with another is obviously an adverse event (the money could have been spent on hospitals or meals on wheels) that's entirely unavoidable and therefore fulfills the dictionary definition of a tragedy.