3 ms·

>Ironically, all the posts calling confirmation bias are, themselves, probably the result of confirmation bias. Have a look at my comment (the first reply flag

>Ironically, all the posts calling confirmation bias are, themselves, probably the result of confirmation bias. Have a look at my comment (the first reply flagging this as possibly the result of confirmation bias). In what what does it sound to you like it could be the result of confirmation bias? I really want to know your thinking on that. I try to actively attack such biases as best I can, but as I even mention in that comment, I understand that they affect us all. I'm just not seeing it here, though, so please tell me what you think I'm overlooking.

Nomentatus 10y ago
He's claiming a common lag reaction exists, that does exist. For example, the lectins in oatmeal are known to cause immune reactions with as much as a 3-day lag (common for our immune reactions in general, of course) if the oatmeal is not cooked for long enough. When did you last get a flu only an hour after exposure to a virus? Lag is common (not uniform) in our immune system reactions, which encompass a lot more than IgE reactions.
- torgoguys 10y ago
  Ok, but your reply to my question might want to address the question: >Have a look at my comment (the first reply flagging this as possibly the result of confirmation bias). In what what does it sound to you like it could be the result of confirmation bias? Did you read the comment that that question was referring to? I never attack any notion of lag in a complex system being real possibility, so I'm not sure where you are coming from or why lag excludes the possibility of confirmation bias. (And only loosely related, you might want to rethink using the example of abscense of influenza symptoms immediately after exposure to the virus as being in any way similar. You seem to be implying something I don't think you mean to).
  - Nomentatus 10y ago
    Confirmation bias because we know most about IgE reactions, so tend to expect all other evidence to conform to that form of reaction - but reality is much more complex. Temporal (lag) characteristics fall under that. There's no requirement of prior similar errors with confirmation bias - the bias exists as an expectation and if fulfilled either by ignoring, downplaying or discarding other evidence. The particular bias, that IgE reactions exhaust the category of genuine allergy reactions is very strong - some allergists who don't read much still have it! It's certainly confirmation bias, together with recency. But we know that's false now, it's recent but well established medicine. We know mast cells do a lot more, now. MCAS = Mast Cell Activation Syndrome MCAD (Mast Cell Activation Disorder) = MCAS or mastocytosis Great links here: http://strengthflexibilityhealtheds.com/2016/02/04/diagnosing-mast-cell-activation-syndrome-mcas-update-and-diagnosis-confirmation/ http://strengthflexibilityhealtheds.com/2016/02/04/diagnosin... http://www.mastattack.org/2014/10/mcad-general-information-public/ http://www.mastattack.org/2014/10/mcad-general-information-p... http://evilmastcells.com/ http://evilmastcells.com/ http://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(14)02927-3/fulltext http://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(14)02927-3/full... Dr. Anne Maitland’s presentation on Allergies & Mast Cell Activation Syndrome in EDS Patients. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktFdr-9rpIM&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktFdr-9rpIM&feature=youtu.be https://mastcellblog.wordpress.com/mastcellguide/ https://mastcellblog.wordpress.com/mastcellguide/
    - torgoguys 10y ago
      You're back to trying to justify the plausibility of the parent being true and not answering the question, at least in a coherent way. Perhaps that's my fault in that it may be unclear which comment the question was referring to since this thread has gotten much longer. Here's the comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13901281 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13901281 And here's the question: >Have a look at my comment (the first reply flagging this as possibly the result of confirmation bias). In what what does it sound to you like it could be the result of confirmation bias? Merely alerting someone that based on the language they used in their comment that there may be confirmation bias at play does not represent confirmation bias on my part. That's what question you were theoretically answering... You could swap some words in the parent comment about the specific situation for some other completely ordinary and uncontroversial possibility (nothing to do with gluten or even health) and the concern still stands based on how the situation is being investigated. (See my other post about "remembering hits" and "forgetting misses" for the primary flaw expressed in the way he's going about investigating it).
      - Nomentatus 10y ago
        (Note that two people can be wrong at the same time. When I agree that the B responders may indeed be motivated by confirmation bias that doesn't rule out the possibility that the A responder was also motivated by (an opposite) confirmation bias based on quite different previous observations. So, the parent may be interested in a genuine possibility due to a bias and pointing to a real but not the most likely possibility (it's hard to judge how committed he - the parent concerned about delayed reactions - is, so we are bound to interpret his comments in the way that makes the most sense and assume he is making only the rational point that is there to be made); and yet at the same time those who assume he's speaking due to confirmation do so because they don't recognize how common such delayed reactions are and assume he must be stretching a point or imagining such long delays because he's desperate to preserve a prior belief. Note this study was small and quick - 37 people and 9 days, apparently.) As of now, I don't think you can get away from confirmation bias on the part of the B responders, at least, though. If the parent is true (and yes, those delayed reactions do exist), then those who accuse that poster of confirmation bias can only get there by assuming (consciously or unconsciously) that the reactions they are most familiar with (intolerance and IgE) are exhaustive, since they can't read his mind and know that he would reject future results from better experiments that are consistent with this experiment. He (the parent) raised a real possibility therefore the knock-down proof fails, as for now. We don't know that non-celiac gluten-specific reactions don't exist. That assumption that reactions to gluten or anything else have to be similar to IgE reactions or intolerance is confirmation bias (of the common "what I've seen so far is what there is" kind) - but of course our brains are associative, and we like to save thought and energy, so there's no massive shame in that; confirmation bias is a part of everybody's daily experience in at least small ways because that's how our brains work and must work. Overlooking even the possibility of disconfirming evidence (that in fact exists in similar contexts, such as oats) is quite a strong form of confirmation bias. It's worth noting that the study doesn't show that there aren't reactions to gluten that aren't celiac reactions; in fact it shows that there are people who have such reactions, it's just that they also react to a lot of foods (this is actually common with MCAS - Mast Cell Activation Syndrome, for example - some people with MCAS end up restricted to a handful of foods.) Such patients turn out to have a helluva lot more problems than just gluten, so they benefit from avoiding a helluva lot more than gluten. You may to have to disambiguate "concern" "situation" and "he" if this reply doesn't seem suitable to you. But if you meant the original scientist, he didn't allege confirmation bias, even by implication so far as I can tell.
  - Nomentatus 10y ago
    I do mean to compare the lag re toxins and the lag re infections, because these response systems are complex and not severed from one another (both are mediated by mast cells); our system often has to react to foreign particles with a general defense, since it can't clearly distinguish in every case (or immediately) whether it's encountering a toxin or invader, or bacteria vs virus. No doubt errors are made both ways. Celiac reactions also often have that 3-day lag, btw, very understandable because Celiac is a unique white-cell mediated autoimmune disease.
ysavir 10y ago
I meant that in the sense that posts claiming the parent was showing confirmation bias were in themselves likely trying to fault the parent's experiments in a way that reaffirmed their own existing beliefs. I'm not saying that they were wrong in pointing out confirmation bias, but that they aren't coming from a much more objective perspective themselves.
- torgoguys 10y ago
  Gotcha. I appreciate the reply. I understand what you were thinking now, but I reject that assertion, at least for my comment. In it, I explicitly accept the possibility that he's right, after warning him that based (only) on the text of his comment, he might not have sufficiently guarded himself against a confirmation bias. I replied because the way he described it is classic of a "remember this hits, forget the misses" cognitive problem. There's no prospective testing described (other than the initial elimination of gluten from her diet). Their confidence seems to mostly rest on post-hoc examinations of diet once something is noticed (so you're missing most of the data and potentially most of the misses) and even gives himself an out if they do an examination and it does miss (the reference to needing a "deep enough" investigation, implying that he open to chalking up a miss as that this time they just didn't look deep enough).

Nomentatus 10y ago

He's claiming a common lag reaction exists, that does exist. For example, the lectins in oatmeal are known to cause immune reactions with as much as a 3-day lag (common for our immune reactions in general, of course) if the oatmeal is not cooked for long enough. When did you last get a flu only an hour after exposure to a virus? Lag is common (not uniform) in our immune system reactions, which encompass a lot more than IgE reactions.

torgoguys 10y ago
Ok, but your reply to my question might want to address the question: >Have a look at my comment (the first reply flagging this as possibly the result of confirmation bias). In what what does it sound to you like it could be the result of confirmation bias? Did you read the comment that that question was referring to? I never attack any notion of lag in a complex system being real possibility, so I'm not sure where you are coming from or why lag excludes the possibility of confirmation bias. (And only loosely related, you might want to rethink using the example of abscense of influenza symptoms immediately after exposure to the virus as being in any way similar. You seem to be implying something I don't think you mean to).
- Nomentatus 10y ago
  Confirmation bias because we know most about IgE reactions, so tend to expect all other evidence to conform to that form of reaction - but reality is much more complex. Temporal (lag) characteristics fall under that. There's no requirement of prior similar errors with confirmation bias - the bias exists as an expectation and if fulfilled either by ignoring, downplaying or discarding other evidence. The particular bias, that IgE reactions exhaust the category of genuine allergy reactions is very strong - some allergists who don't read much still have it! It's certainly confirmation bias, together with recency. But we know that's false now, it's recent but well established medicine. We know mast cells do a lot more, now. MCAS = Mast Cell Activation Syndrome MCAD (Mast Cell Activation Disorder) = MCAS or mastocytosis Great links here: http://strengthflexibilityhealtheds.com/2016/02/04/diagnosing-mast-cell-activation-syndrome-mcas-update-and-diagnosis-confirmation/ http://strengthflexibilityhealtheds.com/2016/02/04/diagnosin... http://www.mastattack.org/2014/10/mcad-general-information-public/ http://www.mastattack.org/2014/10/mcad-general-information-p... http://evilmastcells.com/ http://evilmastcells.com/ http://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(14)02927-3/fulltext http://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(14)02927-3/full... Dr. Anne Maitland’s presentation on Allergies & Mast Cell Activation Syndrome in EDS Patients. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktFdr-9rpIM&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktFdr-9rpIM&feature=youtu.be https://mastcellblog.wordpress.com/mastcellguide/ https://mastcellblog.wordpress.com/mastcellguide/
  - torgoguys 10y ago
    You're back to trying to justify the plausibility of the parent being true and not answering the question, at least in a coherent way. Perhaps that's my fault in that it may be unclear which comment the question was referring to since this thread has gotten much longer. Here's the comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13901281 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13901281 And here's the question: >Have a look at my comment (the first reply flagging this as possibly the result of confirmation bias). In what what does it sound to you like it could be the result of confirmation bias? Merely alerting someone that based on the language they used in their comment that there may be confirmation bias at play does not represent confirmation bias on my part. That's what question you were theoretically answering... You could swap some words in the parent comment about the specific situation for some other completely ordinary and uncontroversial possibility (nothing to do with gluten or even health) and the concern still stands based on how the situation is being investigated. (See my other post about "remembering hits" and "forgetting misses" for the primary flaw expressed in the way he's going about investigating it).
    - Nomentatus 10y ago
      (Note that two people can be wrong at the same time. When I agree that the B responders may indeed be motivated by confirmation bias that doesn't rule out the possibility that the A responder was also motivated by (an opposite) confirmation bias based on quite different previous observations. So, the parent may be interested in a genuine possibility due to a bias and pointing to a real but not the most likely possibility (it's hard to judge how committed he - the parent concerned about delayed reactions - is, so we are bound to interpret his comments in the way that makes the most sense and assume he is making only the rational point that is there to be made); and yet at the same time those who assume he's speaking due to confirmation do so because they don't recognize how common such delayed reactions are and assume he must be stretching a point or imagining such long delays because he's desperate to preserve a prior belief. Note this study was small and quick - 37 people and 9 days, apparently.) As of now, I don't think you can get away from confirmation bias on the part of the B responders, at least, though. If the parent is true (and yes, those delayed reactions do exist), then those who accuse that poster of confirmation bias can only get there by assuming (consciously or unconsciously) that the reactions they are most familiar with (intolerance and IgE) are exhaustive, since they can't read his mind and know that he would reject future results from better experiments that are consistent with this experiment. He (the parent) raised a real possibility therefore the knock-down proof fails, as for now. We don't know that non-celiac gluten-specific reactions don't exist. That assumption that reactions to gluten or anything else have to be similar to IgE reactions or intolerance is confirmation bias (of the common "what I've seen so far is what there is" kind) - but of course our brains are associative, and we like to save thought and energy, so there's no massive shame in that; confirmation bias is a part of everybody's daily experience in at least small ways because that's how our brains work and must work. Overlooking even the possibility of disconfirming evidence (that in fact exists in similar contexts, such as oats) is quite a strong form of confirmation bias. It's worth noting that the study doesn't show that there aren't reactions to gluten that aren't celiac reactions; in fact it shows that there are people who have such reactions, it's just that they also react to a lot of foods (this is actually common with MCAS - Mast Cell Activation Syndrome, for example - some people with MCAS end up restricted to a handful of foods.) Such patients turn out to have a helluva lot more problems than just gluten, so they benefit from avoiding a helluva lot more than gluten. You may to have to disambiguate "concern" "situation" and "he" if this reply doesn't seem suitable to you. But if you meant the original scientist, he didn't allege confirmation bias, even by implication so far as I can tell.
- Nomentatus 10y ago
  I do mean to compare the lag re toxins and the lag re infections, because these response systems are complex and not severed from one another (both are mediated by mast cells); our system often has to react to foreign particles with a general defense, since it can't clearly distinguish in every case (or immediately) whether it's encountering a toxin or invader, or bacteria vs virus. No doubt errors are made both ways. Celiac reactions also often have that 3-day lag, btw, very understandable because Celiac is a unique white-cell mediated autoimmune disease.

ysavir 10y ago

I meant that in the sense that posts claiming the parent was showing confirmation bias were in themselves likely trying to fault the parent's experiments in a way that reaffirmed their own existing beliefs. I'm not saying that they were wrong in pointing out confirmation bias, but that they aren't coming from a much more objective perspective themselves.

torgoguys 10y ago
Gotcha. I appreciate the reply. I understand what you were thinking now, but I reject that assertion, at least for my comment. In it, I explicitly accept the possibility that he's right, after warning him that based (only) on the text of his comment, he might not have sufficiently guarded himself against a confirmation bias. I replied because the way he described it is classic of a "remember this hits, forget the misses" cognitive problem. There's no prospective testing described (other than the initial elimination of gluten from her diet). Their confidence seems to mostly rest on post-hoc examinations of diet once something is noticed (so you're missing most of the data and potentially most of the misses) and even gives himself an out if they do an examination and it does miss (the reference to needing a "deep enough" investigation, implying that he open to chalking up a miss as that this time they just didn't look deep enough).