5 ms·

Black Swans - unexpected movements in financial markets.

35 points by mdemare 19y ago

jakewolf 19y ago
Read Taleb's book, "The Black Swan." Very timely these days. http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1205761039&sr=8-1 http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp...
- moog 19y ago
  Listen to this talk he gave at the Long Now: http://s3.amazonaws.com/salt-recordings/salt-020080208-taleb/salt-020080208-taleb_web.mp3 http://s3.amazonaws.com/salt-recordings/salt-020080208-taleb...
- omarseyal 19y ago
  Honestly, Black Swan is not Taleb's best book. I would recommend you read Fooled By Randomness first if you have the chance... http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/1587990717 http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Market...
  - jakewolf 19y ago
    Both are good and help give you some perspective on stepping back and looking at the big picture.
  - davidw 19y ago
    In the above talk, he mentions that Black Swan is better than Fooled by Randomness.
- blinks 19y ago
  I grabbed this book to read on the flight to Dublin (from Seattle). It's a good read; humorous, but informative.
- blackswan 19y ago
  As you might guess, this is one of my favorite books! One of the things I find so fascinating is how, as in Fooled By Randomness, the concepts he outlines are readily applicable to so many spheres of activity in the modern world. There are black swans happening and about to happen in every field where modern technology has accelerated communication and is changing the way things are done.
matthavener 19y ago
"igon value"? Surprised the editors didn't catch that..
- bilbo0s 19y ago
  I saw that and thought, " . . . I better not mention it or everyone will think you are a mathematician . . ." Thank you, sir, for being willing to take that virtual wedgie for all of the math geeks out there!
- brlewis 19y ago
  Eigen value is probably not in their spellcheck dictionary.
- patrocles 19y ago
  No; Gladwell just doesn't think about what he writes....
kul 19y ago
<3 Taleb. What's surprising is that people are surprised by this latest crash. Banks, throughout history, have never made money. I worked in credit structuring for Deutsche Bank and saw first hand the manipulation of credit ratings to engineer 'profit'. http://www.kulveer.co.uk/2007/09/credit-crunch/ http://www.kulveer.co.uk/2007/09/credit-crunch/
- aswanson 19y ago
  You should have opened a hedge fund strictly based on shorting those banks.
1gor 19y ago
What 'unexpected' everyone is talking about? Everyone has been pointing at US imbalances like low saving rate leading to dangerous dependence on consumption for growth (and consumers in turn depending on low rates to borrow) for 5 years at least. What's unexpected is that it took so long to unravel.

35 points by mdemare 19y ago

Read Taleb's book, "The Black Swan." Very timely these days. http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1205761039&sr=8-1 http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp...

moog 19y ago
Listen to this talk he gave at the Long Now: http://s3.amazonaws.com/salt-recordings/salt-020080208-taleb/salt-020080208-taleb_web.mp3 http://s3.amazonaws.com/salt-recordings/salt-020080208-taleb...
omarseyal 19y ago
Honestly, Black Swan is not Taleb's best book. I would recommend you read Fooled By Randomness first if you have the chance... http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/1587990717 http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Market...
- jakewolf 19y ago
  Both are good and help give you some perspective on stepping back and looking at the big picture.
- davidw 19y ago
  In the above talk, he mentions that Black Swan is better than Fooled by Randomness.
blinks 19y ago
I grabbed this book to read on the flight to Dublin (from Seattle). It's a good read; humorous, but informative.
blackswan 19y ago
As you might guess, this is one of my favorite books! One of the things I find so fascinating is how, as in Fooled By Randomness, the concepts he outlines are readily applicable to so many spheres of activity in the modern world. There are black swans happening and about to happen in every field where modern technology has accelerated communication and is changing the way things are done.

matthavener 19y ago

"igon value"? Surprised the editors didn't catch that..

bilbo0s 19y ago
I saw that and thought, " . . . I better not mention it or everyone will think you are a mathematician . . ." Thank you, sir, for being willing to take that virtual wedgie for all of the math geeks out there!
brlewis 19y ago
Eigen value is probably not in their spellcheck dictionary.
patrocles 19y ago
No; Gladwell just doesn't think about what he writes....

kul 19y ago

<3 Taleb. What's surprising is that people are surprised by this latest crash. Banks, throughout history, have never made money. I worked in credit structuring for Deutsche Bank and saw first hand the manipulation of credit ratings to engineer 'profit'. http://www.kulveer.co.uk/2007/09/credit-crunch/ http://www.kulveer.co.uk/2007/09/credit-crunch/

aswanson 19y ago
You should have opened a hedge fund strictly based on shorting those banks.

1gor 19y ago

What 'unexpected' everyone is talking about? Everyone has been pointing at US imbalances like low saving rate leading to dangerous dependence on consumption for growth (and consumers in turn depending on low rates to borrow) for 5 years at least. What's unexpected is that it took so long to unravel.