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The problem with all these claims is that the term "singularity" implies, to most people, a sudden change after which civilization will be radically altered. I
by charles-salvia 10y ago
The problem with all these claims is that the term "singularity" implies, to most people, a sudden change after which civilization will be radically altered. I guess we'll wake up one morning and just start bowing down to our AI overlords.
Except realistically, how is this supposed to happen? Just because somebody runs ./ai_overlord on some linux box, or some VM cloud, doesn't mean that this AI suddenly somehow magically has insane industrial capacity. It can't necessarily network with all the physical infrastructure and vehicles to start carrying out goals. It's existence is limited to the various RAM chips of a digital network. It will take much longer before an AGI can actually even have a major physical impact on the world.
Also, intelligence is not magic. There are certain mathematical limits to intelligence. An AGI cannot solve the halting problem or compute the Kolmogorov complexity of some data. It can't suddenly build any physical object from raw materials without a huge amount of infrastructural work being setup in advance.
And let's not forget that human beings are also Turing complete. Which means, in theory, anything an AGI can do, we can also do. The main difference is that an AGI would be able to computationally solve problems at much greater speeds than a human. But it's totally unclear to me if this somehow translates into a sudden complete overhaul of all of our civilizational infrastructure overnight. Frankly, that doesn't seem likely. I think it's more likely the first AGIs will just trade derivatives or recommend Netflix queues.
- _rpd 10y agoI think the concern is that the first AGIs will research how to build better AGIs, and will do so in time-accelerated virtual environments, performing years of research in days, then hours, then minutes, etc. Yes, they'll need a plan to earn bitcoin and pay people to build the first self-replicating nanobots, but I wonder how much of a hurdle that is going to be?