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Didn't Kurzweil originally say that Singularity could/would happen around 2010? The cynic in me says that 2029 is still within bounds where Kurzweil can still

by sireat 10y ago

Didn't Kurzweil originally say that Singularity could/would happen around 2010? The cynic in me says that 2029 is still within bounds where Kurzweil can still participate. He would be 81 then. The guy is a brilliant polymath but I get the impression he thinks he can cheat the big sleep.

steego 10y ago
No. Here are his predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#The_Age_of_Intelligent_Machines_.281990.29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzwe... Frankly, it perturbs me when people dump on others who have the courage to make predictions or misrepresent them. Don't get me wrong, I despise people who are consistently wrong with their predictions and have the audacity to pawn themselves off as a visionary. Rather than dump on somebody else's predictions, I'd encourage other people to make their own and stake something on it. Put some skin in the same. Where do you think we'll be in 2029? Why?
- hueving 10y ago
  >Rather than dump on somebody else's predictions, I'd encourage other people to make their own and stake something on it. Put some skin in the same. Where do you think we'll be in 2029? Why? Have you considered that some people think it's stupid to make predictions like this so they wouldn't want to make their own predictions? It's like telling people criticizing numerologists to perform better numerology to prove something.
  - steego 10y ago
    Are you comparing making educated guesses based on observations and analysis with numerology? Making predictions and providing analysis for those predictions is actually incredibly valuable because it helps people and companies anticipate trends and hedge their strategies. Unlike numerology, making predictions grounded in reason is actually a valuable and timeless skill that will benefit most people. I'm not encouraging people to engage in nonsense.
npunt 10y ago
This was my exact impression as well after reading his books back in the day. 'Wait, how old is he now? And that's in 35 years? Oh, I see how he came to that date.'

by sireat 10y ago

steego 10y ago

No. Here are his predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#The_Age_of_Intelligent_Machines_.281990.29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzwe... Frankly, it perturbs me when people dump on others who have the courage to make predictions or misrepresent them. Don't get me wrong, I despise people who are consistently wrong with their predictions and have the audacity to pawn themselves off as a visionary. Rather than dump on somebody else's predictions, I'd encourage other people to make their own and stake something on it. Put some skin in the same. Where do you think we'll be in 2029? Why?

hueving 10y ago
>Rather than dump on somebody else's predictions, I'd encourage other people to make their own and stake something on it. Put some skin in the same. Where do you think we'll be in 2029? Why? Have you considered that some people think it's stupid to make predictions like this so they wouldn't want to make their own predictions? It's like telling people criticizing numerologists to perform better numerology to prove something.
- steego 10y ago
  Are you comparing making educated guesses based on observations and analysis with numerology? Making predictions and providing analysis for those predictions is actually incredibly valuable because it helps people and companies anticipate trends and hedge their strategies. Unlike numerology, making predictions grounded in reason is actually a valuable and timeless skill that will benefit most people. I'm not encouraging people to engage in nonsense.

npunt 10y ago

This was my exact impression as well after reading his books back in the day. 'Wait, how old is he now? And that's in 35 years? Oh, I see how he came to that date.'