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Here is an algorithm for making predictions that is as accurate as Kurzweil: 1) Choose a recent 5-year trend, preferably one increasing geometrically. 2) Extr
by dharmon 10y ago
Here is an algorithm for making predictions that is as accurate as Kurzweil:
1) Choose a recent 5-year trend, preferably one increasing geometrically.
2) Extrapolate out this trend n years.
3) Your prediction is either the number from (2) above, or, for bonus points, some directly dependent result (e.g., in 2000, connection speeds were increasing, instead of predicting "connections will be X mbps", the prediction is something like "we will be able to watch HD video in real time." This sounds more impressive.)
4) Good predictions need a timeframe, so choose 2n to give yourself some buffer for being wrong.
5) You will be a highly sought after futurist at this point, so please send 1/2 your book royalties and speaking fees to my address. (PM for details)
- comex 10y agoBut we can stream HD video in real time, obviously. Many people have connections that can download HD video at 10-100x real time, depending on bitrate; gigabit has been slower to penetrate than I'd like but it is penetrating, continuing the trend of exponential growth up to the present (albeit maybe more slowly than you would project from 2000? I couldn't easily find a graph on Google). If the point is to show the vacuousness of Kurzweil's extrapolation method, I'm not sure Internet speed is the best example...
- dharmon 10y agoMaybe not, but in 2000 downloading JPGs of naked ladies required great patience, and now I can stream 4K video. Look at his predictions from the 1989 timeframe and count up how many were just extrapolating Moore's law and coming up with different implications. My point was that making unsurprising, long-term predictions (10-20 years) is both easy and useless. But for some reason we call people who do this, "futurists". Now there's another name for people who can make surprising, short-term predictions (< 10 years). We call them "rich".
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]