4 ms·

Why not? And what makes you think Elon doesn't?

by frisco 10y ago

M_Grey 10y ago
He's clearly a very smart man, which means that he understands the challenges which are known (cognitive decline from radiation, no material suitable for shielding, incomplete understanding of human microbiome, etc...) and the impossibility of his stated goal to establish a human colony on Mars anytime soon. He's positioned for LEO cargo, and in the longer-term (I suspect) for potentially surveying and mining asteroids. There is almost literally money out there, for the first people to stake a claim. It's daring, it's risky, but it's possible to do with a combination of human explorers and robotics. It's not sexy however, and it calls to mind all of the dystopian sci-fi of the last few decades. "We're going to Mars folks!" is just... easier to swallow than... mining space rocks. People like you and me want to believe in a secure future for the species, which requires getting a self-sustaining group of humans off this planet. It's a powerful dream that could really move some very bright and dedicated people, who might not be similarly moved by the dream of simply gathering more resources for Earth. Elon Musk, I think, has perfectly blended PR and a real business plan, but the PR and plan are not one and the same. More credit to him, but it's a bit discouraging to see so many people flip the switch on their skepticism out of pure "wanting it to be true".
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- ericb 10y ago
  I think you need to listen to more of his interviews, look over his plans, examine his side businesses... They are all remarkably consistent with a long term vision he lays out years in advance of any business dealings. For example, The Boring Company is his exploration of what they can do on mars to avoid radiation and create habitats. His mars beliefs go back years. I hope this doesn't apply to you, but I feel really sorry for people who can't believe in altruistic motivations. It seems people who don't believe anyone works for the greater good often disbelieve because they have only selfish motivations, so imagining someone motivated by altruism or higher order goals sounds fantastical, and they can only understand it as a "trick." Further, I don't think it is at all clear that those obstacles are insurmountable. They are technical problems. Nasa thinks solutions are possible and worth discussing: http://www.space.com/29512-mars-mission-radiation-nasa-challenge.html http://www.space.com/29512-mars-mission-radiation-nasa-chall...
  - M_Grey 10y ago
    I believe in altruism, but I don't believe that Elon Musk is altruistic. In fact, the way he seems happy to treat his people suggests a far less humane side, but that's neither here nor there. In any case, I don't really care about his motives, just his plans. He's made some interesting points about using Mars to shield from radiation, but it doesn't matter because they'd be cooked before they ever arrived. Worse, it seems that radiation is going to have an impact on cognition, which is just about the worst thing you can imagine. Dying in your 50's from cancer is tragic, but dying because you stopped thinking clearly before your mission ever truly begins? Wasteful. The notion of using water as a shielding works at first glance, but then you realize that you'd need a looooot of it, and that you've kicked the problematic can. Now your biggest concern shifts to micro-impacts, which no longer just erode your armor (you'll need armor... expensive as it will be to lift, you'll need it), but open your radiation shielding to vacuum. Presumably you'd have some means to circulate the water through the outer crew quarters, so large parts suddenly freezing and slowly sublimating away strike me as catastrophic. What we need is a material that is incredibly strong, durable, manages thermal stress, and which can shield against all kinds of radiation (without just cooking the poor bastards with gamma rays secondary to the incident radiation). That material need to be light enough that lifting it into orbit doesn't bankrupt any potential operation, and frankly... no such material exists. That is just one problem. Edit: To be clear, I don't think that Elon Musk being something other than altruistic, is for example, malevolent. I think of all the arena in which he could have acted, he chose ones that were potentially beneficial to the species. Not being altruistic doesn't mean that you have to be terrible... most of us aren't altruistic.
- robryan 10y ago
  Even if what you say is true and SpaceX never delivers on a Mars colony, the incremental steps they are taking towards it are going to be beneficial for future private companies and governments to build on.

Why not? And what makes you think Elon doesn't?

by frisco 10y ago

Why not? And what makes you think Elon doesn't?

He's clearly a very smart man, which means that he understands the challenges which are known (cognitive decline from radiation, no material suitable for shielding, incomplete understanding of human microbiome, etc...) and the impossibility of his stated goal to establish a human colony on Mars anytime soon. He's positioned for LEO cargo, and in the longer-term (I suspect) for potentially surveying and mining asteroids. There is almost literally money out there, for the first people to stake a claim. It's daring, it's risky, but it's possible to do with a combination of human explorers and robotics. It's not sexy however, and it calls to mind all of the dystopian sci-fi of the last few decades. "We're going to Mars folks!" is just... easier to swallow than... mining space rocks. People like you and me want to believe in a secure future for the species, which requires getting a self-sustaining group of humans off this planet. It's a powerful dream that could really move some very bright and dedicated people, who might not be similarly moved by the dream of simply gathering more resources for Earth. Elon Musk, I think, has perfectly blended PR and a real business plan, but the PR and plan are not one and the same. More credit to him, but it's a bit discouraging to see so many people flip the switch on their skepticism out of pure "wanting it to be true".

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
ericb 10y ago
I think you need to listen to more of his interviews, look over his plans, examine his side businesses... They are all remarkably consistent with a long term vision he lays out years in advance of any business dealings. For example, The Boring Company is his exploration of what they can do on mars to avoid radiation and create habitats. His mars beliefs go back years. I hope this doesn't apply to you, but I feel really sorry for people who can't believe in altruistic motivations. It seems people who don't believe anyone works for the greater good often disbelieve because they have only selfish motivations, so imagining someone motivated by altruism or higher order goals sounds fantastical, and they can only understand it as a "trick." Further, I don't think it is at all clear that those obstacles are insurmountable. They are technical problems. Nasa thinks solutions are possible and worth discussing: http://www.space.com/29512-mars-mission-radiation-nasa-challenge.html http://www.space.com/29512-mars-mission-radiation-nasa-chall...
- M_Grey 10y ago
  I believe in altruism, but I don't believe that Elon Musk is altruistic. In fact, the way he seems happy to treat his people suggests a far less humane side, but that's neither here nor there. In any case, I don't really care about his motives, just his plans. He's made some interesting points about using Mars to shield from radiation, but it doesn't matter because they'd be cooked before they ever arrived. Worse, it seems that radiation is going to have an impact on cognition, which is just about the worst thing you can imagine. Dying in your 50's from cancer is tragic, but dying because you stopped thinking clearly before your mission ever truly begins? Wasteful. The notion of using water as a shielding works at first glance, but then you realize that you'd need a looooot of it, and that you've kicked the problematic can. Now your biggest concern shifts to micro-impacts, which no longer just erode your armor (you'll need armor... expensive as it will be to lift, you'll need it), but open your radiation shielding to vacuum. Presumably you'd have some means to circulate the water through the outer crew quarters, so large parts suddenly freezing and slowly sublimating away strike me as catastrophic. What we need is a material that is incredibly strong, durable, manages thermal stress, and which can shield against all kinds of radiation (without just cooking the poor bastards with gamma rays secondary to the incident radiation). That material need to be light enough that lifting it into orbit doesn't bankrupt any potential operation, and frankly... no such material exists. That is just one problem. Edit: To be clear, I don't think that Elon Musk being something other than altruistic, is for example, malevolent. I think of all the arena in which he could have acted, he chose ones that were potentially beneficial to the species. Not being altruistic doesn't mean that you have to be terrible... most of us aren't altruistic.
robryan 10y ago
Even if what you say is true and SpaceX never delivers on a Mars colony, the incremental steps they are taking towards it are going to be beneficial for future private companies and governments to build on.