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Huh, that actually looks pretty cool. Are there any stats on e.x. how often someone's "80% correct" predictions are actually true?
by owenversteeg 10y ago
Huh, that actually looks pretty cool. Are there any stats on e.x. how often someone's "80% correct" predictions are actually true?
- lkbm 10y agoI don't know if you can view your stats in comparison with the average user, but once you have some predictions that have ended up right/wrong, you get a nice little graph showing your calibration. For example: http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern Assuming I'm reading it right, the perfectly calibrated guesser would trend towards a straight line going from 50 on the left to 100 on the right. They also have a way-too-addictive game where you can practice calibrating your confidence on a bunch of trivia questions: http://predictionbook.com/credence_games/try http://predictionbook.com/credence_games/try