5 ms·

Curious: What do you think is Tesla/Musk's "end game vision"?

by cel1ne 10y ago

valine 10y ago
To make humanity an interplanetary species. http://www.theverge.com/2016/9/27/13079472/elon-musk-mars-space-x-tesla-funding-dream http://www.theverge.com/2016/9/27/13079472/elon-musk-mars-sp...
- M_Grey 10y ago
  You can't really believe that; certainly Musk doesn't. Edit: Just for one challenge with no current solution: http://www.nature.com/articles/srep34774 http://www.nature.com/articles/srep34774 There are others.
  - frisco 10y ago
    Why not? And what makes you think Elon doesn't?
    - M_Grey 10y ago
      He's clearly a very smart man, which means that he understands the challenges which are known (cognitive decline from radiation, no material suitable for shielding, incomplete understanding of human microbiome, etc...) and the impossibility of his stated goal to establish a human colony on Mars anytime soon. He's positioned for LEO cargo, and in the longer-term (I suspect) for potentially surveying and mining asteroids. There is almost literally money out there, for the first people to stake a claim. It's daring, it's risky, but it's possible to do with a combination of human explorers and robotics. It's not sexy however, and it calls to mind all of the dystopian sci-fi of the last few decades. "We're going to Mars folks!" is just... easier to swallow than... mining space rocks. People like you and me want to believe in a secure future for the species, which requires getting a self-sustaining group of humans off this planet. It's a powerful dream that could really move some very bright and dedicated people, who might not be similarly moved by the dream of simply gathering more resources for Earth. Elon Musk, I think, has perfectly blended PR and a real business plan, but the PR and plan are not one and the same. More credit to him, but it's a bit discouraging to see so many people flip the switch on their skepticism out of pure "wanting it to be true".
      - deleted 10y ago
        [deleted]
      - ericb 10y ago
        I think you need to listen to more of his interviews, look over his plans, examine his side businesses... They are all remarkably consistent with a long term vision he lays out years in advance of any business dealings. For example, The Boring Company is his exploration of what they can do on mars to avoid radiation and create habitats. His mars beliefs go back years. I hope this doesn't apply to you, but I feel really sorry for people who can't believe in altruistic motivations. It seems people who don't believe anyone works for the greater good often disbelieve because they have only selfish motivations, so imagining someone motivated by altruism or higher order goals sounds fantastical, and they can only understand it as a "trick." Further, I don't think it is at all clear that those obstacles are insurmountable. They are technical problems. Nasa thinks solutions are possible and worth discussing: http://www.space.com/29512-mars-mission-radiation-nasa-challenge.html http://www.space.com/29512-mars-mission-radiation-nasa-chall...
        M_Grey 10y ago
        I believe in altruism, but I don't believe that Elon Musk is altruistic. In fact, the way he seems happy to treat his people suggests a far less humane side, but that's neither here nor there. In any case, I don't really care about his motives, just his plans. He's made some interesting points about using Mars to shield from radiation, but it doesn't matter because they'd be cooked before they ever arrived. Worse, it seems that radiation is going to have an impact on cognition, which is just about the worst thing you can imagine. Dying in your 50's from cancer is tragic, but dying because you stopped thinking clearly before your mission ever truly begins? Wasteful. The notion of using water as a shielding works at first glance, but then you realize that you'd need a looooot of it, and that you've kicked the problematic can. Now your biggest concern shifts to micro-impacts, which no longer just erode your armor (you'll need armor... expensive as it will be to lift, you'll need it), but open your radiation shielding to vacuum. Presumably you'd have some means to circulate the water through the outer crew quarters, so large parts suddenly freezing and slowly sublimating away strike me as catastrophic. What we need is a material that is incredibly strong, durable, manages thermal stress, and which can shield against all kinds of radiation (without just cooking the poor bastards with gamma rays secondary to the incident radiation). That material need to be light enough that lifting it into orbit doesn't bankrupt any potential operation, and frankly... no such material exists. That is just one problem. Edit: To be clear, I don't think that Elon Musk being something other than altruistic, is for example, malevolent. I think of all the arena in which he could have acted, he chose ones that were potentially beneficial to the species. Not being altruistic doesn't mean that you have to be terrible... most of us aren't altruistic.
- phkahler 10y ago
  I'm really hoping that when Tesla implodes it has no effect on SpaceX.
  - unprepare 10y ago
    Why would it?
    - phkahler 10y ago
      Because Elon tends to mix the interests of his companies. I believe one of them purchased bonds of the other a while ago or something like that. They have financial ties of some sort but I don't recall what kind or which is more vulnerable.
- LordHumungous 10y ago
  Oh that's all?
- cel1ne 10y ago
  I think a better formulation is to make humanity survive climate change.
wellboy 10y ago
Being the main company that in 10 years replaces all cars that currently exist that drive around autonomously that no one owns and that can only be ordered via an app that are powered by Solar panels that are on Hyperloops all around the world. In short. :)
ksikka 10y ago
There's no endgame - such a thing would cap Tesla's valuation.

Curious: What do you think is Tesla/Musk's "end game vision"?

by cel1ne 10y ago

Curious: What do you think is Tesla/Musk's "end game vision"?

To make humanity an interplanetary species. http://www.theverge.com/2016/9/27/13079472/elon-musk-mars-space-x-tesla-funding-dream http://www.theverge.com/2016/9/27/13079472/elon-musk-mars-sp...

M_Grey 10y ago
You can't really believe that; certainly Musk doesn't. Edit: Just for one challenge with no current solution: http://www.nature.com/articles/srep34774 http://www.nature.com/articles/srep34774 There are others.
- frisco 10y ago
  Why not? And what makes you think Elon doesn't?
  - M_Grey 10y ago
    He's clearly a very smart man, which means that he understands the challenges which are known (cognitive decline from radiation, no material suitable for shielding, incomplete understanding of human microbiome, etc...) and the impossibility of his stated goal to establish a human colony on Mars anytime soon. He's positioned for LEO cargo, and in the longer-term (I suspect) for potentially surveying and mining asteroids. There is almost literally money out there, for the first people to stake a claim. It's daring, it's risky, but it's possible to do with a combination of human explorers and robotics. It's not sexy however, and it calls to mind all of the dystopian sci-fi of the last few decades. "We're going to Mars folks!" is just... easier to swallow than... mining space rocks. People like you and me want to believe in a secure future for the species, which requires getting a self-sustaining group of humans off this planet. It's a powerful dream that could really move some very bright and dedicated people, who might not be similarly moved by the dream of simply gathering more resources for Earth. Elon Musk, I think, has perfectly blended PR and a real business plan, but the PR and plan are not one and the same. More credit to him, but it's a bit discouraging to see so many people flip the switch on their skepticism out of pure "wanting it to be true".
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
    - ericb 10y ago
      I think you need to listen to more of his interviews, look over his plans, examine his side businesses... They are all remarkably consistent with a long term vision he lays out years in advance of any business dealings. For example, The Boring Company is his exploration of what they can do on mars to avoid radiation and create habitats. His mars beliefs go back years. I hope this doesn't apply to you, but I feel really sorry for people who can't believe in altruistic motivations. It seems people who don't believe anyone works for the greater good often disbelieve because they have only selfish motivations, so imagining someone motivated by altruism or higher order goals sounds fantastical, and they can only understand it as a "trick." Further, I don't think it is at all clear that those obstacles are insurmountable. They are technical problems. Nasa thinks solutions are possible and worth discussing: http://www.space.com/29512-mars-mission-radiation-nasa-challenge.html http://www.space.com/29512-mars-mission-radiation-nasa-chall...
      - M_Grey 10y ago
        I believe in altruism, but I don't believe that Elon Musk is altruistic. In fact, the way he seems happy to treat his people suggests a far less humane side, but that's neither here nor there. In any case, I don't really care about his motives, just his plans. He's made some interesting points about using Mars to shield from radiation, but it doesn't matter because they'd be cooked before they ever arrived. Worse, it seems that radiation is going to have an impact on cognition, which is just about the worst thing you can imagine. Dying in your 50's from cancer is tragic, but dying because you stopped thinking clearly before your mission ever truly begins? Wasteful. The notion of using water as a shielding works at first glance, but then you realize that you'd need a looooot of it, and that you've kicked the problematic can. Now your biggest concern shifts to micro-impacts, which no longer just erode your armor (you'll need armor... expensive as it will be to lift, you'll need it), but open your radiation shielding to vacuum. Presumably you'd have some means to circulate the water through the outer crew quarters, so large parts suddenly freezing and slowly sublimating away strike me as catastrophic. What we need is a material that is incredibly strong, durable, manages thermal stress, and which can shield against all kinds of radiation (without just cooking the poor bastards with gamma rays secondary to the incident radiation). That material need to be light enough that lifting it into orbit doesn't bankrupt any potential operation, and frankly... no such material exists. That is just one problem. Edit: To be clear, I don't think that Elon Musk being something other than altruistic, is for example, malevolent. I think of all the arena in which he could have acted, he chose ones that were potentially beneficial to the species. Not being altruistic doesn't mean that you have to be terrible... most of us aren't altruistic.
phkahler 10y ago
I'm really hoping that when Tesla implodes it has no effect on SpaceX.
- unprepare 10y ago
  Why would it?
  - phkahler 10y ago
    Because Elon tends to mix the interests of his companies. I believe one of them purchased bonds of the other a while ago or something like that. They have financial ties of some sort but I don't recall what kind or which is more vulnerable.
LordHumungous 10y ago
Oh that's all?
cel1ne 10y ago
I think a better formulation is to make humanity survive climate change.

wellboy 10y ago

Being the main company that in 10 years replaces all cars that currently exist that drive around autonomously that no one owns and that can only be ordered via an app that are powered by Solar panels that are on Hyperloops all around the world. In short. :)

ksikka 10y ago

There's no endgame - such a thing would cap Tesla's valuation.