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I see your point, and thinking about it helped clarify my thinking, so first, thank you for that. I think another way of phrasing my opinion is that the US labo
by scott00 10y ago
I see your point, and thinking about it helped clarify my thinking, so first, thank you for that. I think another way of phrasing my opinion is that the US labor market is a large, reasonably efficient market; that it's reasonably well modeled by a simple supply and demand model; and that discussing it in other terms obscures the important issues. The notion of a shortage is fundamentally incompatible with a simple supply and demand model of a market. The market price in such a model is, by definition, the price at which supply and demand are balanced. So if you're talking about a shortage in the US labor market, you're either claiming that supply and demand is a poor model of the labor market, or you're talking nonsense. I think either is misleading or at best confusing. So to an extent I really am saying that shortages can't exist for anything you can buy on a large efficient market.
Of course not every market is a large efficient market. If you're talking about a price-regulated market, by all means, discuss shortages. Another good situation where discussing a shortage would be appropriate is markets that have very or perfectly inelastic supply over a relevant time period. Say, a vaccine that costs $1 but that takes 6 months to produce due to the biology involved, combined with a major epidemic in the relevant disease. It's fair to call that a shortage.
- Eridrus 10y agoI think labour markets are some of the least efficient markets that exist. Without immigration it takes at least 4+ years for extra supply to become available based on increasing prices. And when you hire someone you really don't know what you're getting, particularly in software. Constraining supply increases salaries precisely because it takes supply so long to incorporate information. On top of that, supply and demand is a pretty leaky abstraction, I don't expect it to be very accurate in such a nonideal market.