The rider experience associated with boarding >20 buses per hour per station at rush houris likely to be nightmarish. It's not ideal to screw over transit rider

The rider experience associated with boarding >20 buses per hour per station at rush houris likely to be nightmarish. It's not ideal to screw over transit riders; there's a reason Caltrain was built in the first place. If people switch to cars, there are major hidden costs. You're also ignoring the cost of 250 * ~$80k/year * [weekend-factor ~= 2] + insurance for the drivers and maintenance on the buses which will quickly eat up your margin. Personally I think the Dumbarton rail bridge would improve the overall economy more by shifting some activity towards the cheaper South Bay but Caltrain electrification is a very good thing.