5 ms·

I actually think this might be a blessing in disguise for Uber. I always argued self-driving cars would destroy Uber should Apple or Google want to enter this s

I actually think this might be a blessing in disguise for Uber. I always argued self-driving cars would destroy Uber should Apple or Google want to enter this space. Why? Because self-driving cars are basically a fleet service driven by a software. Once you remove the driver (where Uber spent so much acquiring) The only differentiator is the consumer facing experience. Neither Uber or Lyft will have as much power as Apple and Google since they ultimately own the mobile experience. I ultimately envision this business as kind of a Kayak mobile on the phone managed by Siri or Google/Apple maps that will call the nearest taxi or the cheaper rate aggregating from multiple possible vendors. Larger fleets (Uber, Apple, Google) to smaller individually manage fleets. Car companies might decide to also enter that market in collaboration with financial underwriter. So having a network of drivers ultimately gives Uber some leverage and removing them from the equation, I think it'll actually destroy Uber. This is why I think, this could be a blessing in disguise.

jacknoble 10y ago
The drivers are going to be removed from the equation no matter what though.
- thearn4 10y ago
  I do believe that this is true, but I can't help but also believe that the timelines that the tech community has in mind are absolutely too optimistic. I think like many promising innovations (AI, VR, etc.) it will have periods of rapid innovation followed by contraction and lull, repeated many times until general adoption is realized.
  - jon_richards 10y ago
    You're going to have a few palm pilots before you have an iphone.
- erikpukinskis 10y ago
  The drivers will get removed from the "bring me from X to Y and leave me alone" equation, but drivers who can do slightly more complex things while driving around (pick up flowers here, then get my son from Judo practice, and practice his French with him in the car) will be a huge market, bigger than the current rideshare market, and a better moneymaker for drivers. Uber just needs to think of themselves as a mobile staffing company and they'll be fine. Unfortunately, staffing is a market where "Move fast and be an asshole" isn't a great philosophy so they'll need a bit of a temperament change to survive.
  - rtkwe 10y ago
    > pick up flowers here, then get my son from Judo practice, and practice his French with him in the car This would basically turn them into a private driver service and finding qualified staff would be a pain for anyone wanting a french tutor for the drive. Ignoring that as an off the wall example though they'll still hit a pretty hard wall with trust. Even if the fear is unfounded trying to get a huge number of people to sign up for random (to them) people to pick up and drive around their kids is running into a lot of child abduction/abuse fears that run kind of deep in the US.
    - erikpukinskis 10y ago
      > finding qualified staff would be a pain for anyone wanting a french tutor for the drive Why? Just filter on the "Speaks French" tag.
      - rtkwe 10y ago
        The supply would still be extremely limited outside a few markets where French is a primary or main secondary language. Also unless you're paying extra for the French speakers the chances the small pool will be already booked with normal jobs is pretty high.
        erikpukinskis 10y ago
        I'm not saying Uber should become a service for French tutors. I'm saying every Uber driver has a unique value-add and in a large market there will be plenty of customers for those additional skills. Are you trying to argue that there is zero use for a person with a car who speaks French in a city like San Francisco? I really don't understand what you're trying to convince me.
memmcgee 10y ago
Uber's drivers aren't really fans of them though, nor are they loyal to a single company. Uber could disappear tomorrow and all its drivers would be fine on Lyft.
- alpha_squared 10y ago
  This may no longer be the case, but doesn't Lyft have a stricter vetting process than Uber? It could be that some (most, none, all?) of Uber drivers may not be that happy with Lyft.
  - linkregister 10y ago
    Not really. I'd be surprised if most Uber drivers weren't already at least onboarded to Lyft. About half of the drivers I see have two phones on cradles in their cars.
- fernandotakai 10y ago
  lyft is US only, uber is not US only. if uber disappeared tomorrow, thousands of drivers would be unemployed outside the us.
  - memmcgee 10y ago
    Did not know that. But I'm sure there are plenty of foreign startups that would pick up the slack. There's no secret sauce in Uber's tech. It would be fitting to see Uber fail due to hubris.
daemin 10y ago
I always considered the people that drive for Uber to be more of a means to an end for Uber. To me Uber wants people getting used to ordering a car service with an app and then being driven to their destination. So really having people as drivers is a stop gap measure until they get autonomous vehicles working and the equivalent of "the knowledge" of black cab drivers in London for everywhere else in the world. This is why they track you with the Uber app after you finish your ride, so that they can get the local knowledge stored.

jacknoble 10y ago

The drivers are going to be removed from the equation no matter what though.

thearn4 10y ago
I do believe that this is true, but I can't help but also believe that the timelines that the tech community has in mind are absolutely too optimistic. I think like many promising innovations (AI, VR, etc.) it will have periods of rapid innovation followed by contraction and lull, repeated many times until general adoption is realized.
- jon_richards 10y ago
  You're going to have a few palm pilots before you have an iphone.
erikpukinskis 10y ago
The drivers will get removed from the "bring me from X to Y and leave me alone" equation, but drivers who can do slightly more complex things while driving around (pick up flowers here, then get my son from Judo practice, and practice his French with him in the car) will be a huge market, bigger than the current rideshare market, and a better moneymaker for drivers. Uber just needs to think of themselves as a mobile staffing company and they'll be fine. Unfortunately, staffing is a market where "Move fast and be an asshole" isn't a great philosophy so they'll need a bit of a temperament change to survive.
- rtkwe 10y ago
  > pick up flowers here, then get my son from Judo practice, and practice his French with him in the car This would basically turn them into a private driver service and finding qualified staff would be a pain for anyone wanting a french tutor for the drive. Ignoring that as an off the wall example though they'll still hit a pretty hard wall with trust. Even if the fear is unfounded trying to get a huge number of people to sign up for random (to them) people to pick up and drive around their kids is running into a lot of child abduction/abuse fears that run kind of deep in the US.
  - erikpukinskis 10y ago
    > finding qualified staff would be a pain for anyone wanting a french tutor for the drive Why? Just filter on the "Speaks French" tag.
    - rtkwe 10y ago
      The supply would still be extremely limited outside a few markets where French is a primary or main secondary language. Also unless you're paying extra for the French speakers the chances the small pool will be already booked with normal jobs is pretty high.
      - erikpukinskis 10y ago
        I'm not saying Uber should become a service for French tutors. I'm saying every Uber driver has a unique value-add and in a large market there will be plenty of customers for those additional skills. Are you trying to argue that there is zero use for a person with a car who speaks French in a city like San Francisco? I really don't understand what you're trying to convince me.

memmcgee 10y ago

Uber's drivers aren't really fans of them though, nor are they loyal to a single company. Uber could disappear tomorrow and all its drivers would be fine on Lyft.

alpha_squared 10y ago
This may no longer be the case, but doesn't Lyft have a stricter vetting process than Uber? It could be that some (most, none, all?) of Uber drivers may not be that happy with Lyft.
- linkregister 10y ago
  Not really. I'd be surprised if most Uber drivers weren't already at least onboarded to Lyft. About half of the drivers I see have two phones on cradles in their cars.
fernandotakai 10y ago
lyft is US only, uber is not US only. if uber disappeared tomorrow, thousands of drivers would be unemployed outside the us.
- memmcgee 10y ago
  Did not know that. But I'm sure there are plenty of foreign startups that would pick up the slack. There's no secret sauce in Uber's tech. It would be fitting to see Uber fail due to hubris.

daemin 10y ago

I always considered the people that drive for Uber to be more of a means to an end for Uber. To me Uber wants people getting used to ordering a car service with an app and then being driven to their destination. So really having people as drivers is a stop gap measure until they get autonomous vehicles working and the equivalent of "the knowledge" of black cab drivers in London for everywhere else in the world. This is why they track you with the Uber app after you finish your ride, so that they can get the local knowledge stored.