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Furthermore, given the 99% fall in oil revenue since the previous referendum, the Union dividend (£9bn / year) and a deficit of 10% GDP, and state aid rules wit

by krona 10y ago

Furthermore, given the 99% fall in oil revenue since the previous referendum, the Union dividend (£9bn / year) and a deficit of 10% GDP, and state aid rules within the EU, the economic case for independence has dwindled, to put it mildly. Politically, the case for independence is on the downside; both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have higher net satisfaction rates than Sturgeon in Scotland, and the likelihood of a general election before EU exit is getting higher every day, but for other reasons. Peak Sturgeon has come 2 years too soon.

Someone1234 10y ago
> both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson higher net satisfaction rates higher than Sturgeon In Scotland? I'm extremely skeptical.
- falsedan 10y ago
  They must have meant 'in all of UK' by 'net'. In Scotland, impossible!
  - Someone1234 10y ago
    I was wondering if that's what they meant. But if they did it is an absurd statistic given that only Scotland gets to vote in their own referendum.
- krona 10y ago
  http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ruth-davidson-overtakes-nicola-sturgeon-in-new-opinion-poll-1-4231923 http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ruth-davidson-overtake... From mid-september 2016. Couldn't find a more recent poll.
  - JamesMcMinn 10y ago
    It's probably worth noting that the Scotsman has historically backed the Union and their audience are very pro-union, and generally pro conservative. As I understand it, the poll which they based that article on didn't even ask the same question for each of the leaders, so the final results can't be seriously compared.
    - krona 10y ago
      The poll was by Ipsos MORI, but I guess you already knew that.
- MagnumOpus 10y ago
  There was an IPSOSmori survey to that tune in mid-September. It was contradicted by a following YouGov poll in November where Sturgeon was seen as doing better. And of course "doing well in her job" doesn't matter much if 38% of Scots vote SNP vs 16% Tory voters (from the Yougov survey).
- JamesMcMinn 10y ago
  There are almost continual attacks on Sturgeon from Unionists in Scotland (and from England) - read any of the comment sections on the BBC (it doesn't even have to be about Scotland...) and you'll see a lot of hate for her - everything from claims that she's making a power grab for herself, to calling her one of the krankies. It's a sad state of affairs. Having said that, I think most people would agree she's one of the few British politicians delivering clear leadership at the moment, and for whatever reason, people don't seem to like that coming from her. I've not heard much, if anything positive about May, but Davidson is generally highly regarded, even if very few actually vote for the Tories in Scotland.
  - cstross 10y ago
    Please note that the BBC is a UK-wide broadcaster, and takes comments from everyone — anecdotally, a lot of the anti-Sturgeon comments on twitter, reddit, etcetera[1] come from English nationalists. Scotland-bashing has never really gone out of fashion in England and there's been a marked upswing in its acceptability since the Brexit referendum[2]. [1] I avoid the BBC comments like the plague, for the same reason I avoid the Daily Mail. [2] I was born and grew up in England; I've lived in Scotland for the past 22 years.
  - ZanyProgrammer 10y ago
    I believe the Tories size as opposition party was from an election before Brexit (and Trump obviously, this is also a referendum on him and his administration whether or not its explicit). Just how popular are Ruth Davidson and her party now?
    - JamesMcMinn 10y ago
      They're doing better now as a party than before Brexit, but not for the reasons you might think. The Labour party have traditionally been very strong in Scotland - the Labour party was a party for life, and many people only every voted Labour. However, this has all changed over the past year, as they have effectively self-imploded to the point of uselessness. I cannot overstate how much of a breakdown there has been within the Labour party, and people who had previously only ever voted Labour are now voting differently. I'd argue that much of the Conservative party's gains have come from people who will simply no longer vote for Labour, rather than a move towards the Conservatives themselves.
matthewmacleod 10y ago
Current thought within the SNP is moving towards building an economic case for independence which is not dependent on North Sea oil revenue. That reliance was seen as a weakness in the previous campaign, and there is awareness of that within the party.
- cmdkeen 10y ago
  Given that the cybernats have taken to denying GERS, despite those being the figures the last White Paper was based on - and the Common Weal proposed Scotland not having to pay pensions to balance the books, I wouldn't get your hopes up. The clue is the quiet dropping of demands for Full Fiscal Autonomy over the past few years. There isn't close enough savings to made from things like Trident to enable even a credible deficit to be run. The level of spending cuts / tax rises required will be of the level that only an IMF intervention normally brings - far, far beyond anything Osborne did over many years.
  - matthewmacleod 10y ago
    'Cybernats' are not really representative of anything important, and I think it would be better to focus on the plans published going forward. I'm an ardent supporter of independence, but I don't doubt for a second that it will be difficult to build a strong economic case – in no small part because of the level of uncertainty we are currently dealing with. But I'm quietly confident that the independence movement will have learned a lot from the previous campaign and will avoid making mistakes it perhaps made in 2014.

by krona 10y ago

Someone1234 10y ago

> both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson higher net satisfaction rates higher than Sturgeon In Scotland? I'm extremely skeptical.

falsedan 10y ago
They must have meant 'in all of UK' by 'net'. In Scotland, impossible!
- Someone1234 10y ago
  I was wondering if that's what they meant. But if they did it is an absurd statistic given that only Scotland gets to vote in their own referendum.
krona 10y ago
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ruth-davidson-overtakes-nicola-sturgeon-in-new-opinion-poll-1-4231923 http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ruth-davidson-overtake... From mid-september 2016. Couldn't find a more recent poll.
- JamesMcMinn 10y ago
  It's probably worth noting that the Scotsman has historically backed the Union and their audience are very pro-union, and generally pro conservative. As I understand it, the poll which they based that article on didn't even ask the same question for each of the leaders, so the final results can't be seriously compared.
  - krona 10y ago
    The poll was by Ipsos MORI, but I guess you already knew that.
MagnumOpus 10y ago
There was an IPSOSmori survey to that tune in mid-September. It was contradicted by a following YouGov poll in November where Sturgeon was seen as doing better. And of course "doing well in her job" doesn't matter much if 38% of Scots vote SNP vs 16% Tory voters (from the Yougov survey).
JamesMcMinn 10y ago
There are almost continual attacks on Sturgeon from Unionists in Scotland (and from England) - read any of the comment sections on the BBC (it doesn't even have to be about Scotland...) and you'll see a lot of hate for her - everything from claims that she's making a power grab for herself, to calling her one of the krankies. It's a sad state of affairs. Having said that, I think most people would agree she's one of the few British politicians delivering clear leadership at the moment, and for whatever reason, people don't seem to like that coming from her. I've not heard much, if anything positive about May, but Davidson is generally highly regarded, even if very few actually vote for the Tories in Scotland.
- cstross 10y ago
  Please note that the BBC is a UK-wide broadcaster, and takes comments from everyone — anecdotally, a lot of the anti-Sturgeon comments on twitter, reddit, etcetera[1] come from English nationalists. Scotland-bashing has never really gone out of fashion in England and there's been a marked upswing in its acceptability since the Brexit referendum[2]. [1] I avoid the BBC comments like the plague, for the same reason I avoid the Daily Mail. [2] I was born and grew up in England; I've lived in Scotland for the past 22 years.
- ZanyProgrammer 10y ago
  I believe the Tories size as opposition party was from an election before Brexit (and Trump obviously, this is also a referendum on him and his administration whether or not its explicit). Just how popular are Ruth Davidson and her party now?
  - JamesMcMinn 10y ago
    They're doing better now as a party than before Brexit, but not for the reasons you might think. The Labour party have traditionally been very strong in Scotland - the Labour party was a party for life, and many people only every voted Labour. However, this has all changed over the past year, as they have effectively self-imploded to the point of uselessness. I cannot overstate how much of a breakdown there has been within the Labour party, and people who had previously only ever voted Labour are now voting differently. I'd argue that much of the Conservative party's gains have come from people who will simply no longer vote for Labour, rather than a move towards the Conservatives themselves.

matthewmacleod 10y ago

Current thought within the SNP is moving towards building an economic case for independence which is not dependent on North Sea oil revenue. That reliance was seen as a weakness in the previous campaign, and there is awareness of that within the party.

cmdkeen 10y ago
Given that the cybernats have taken to denying GERS, despite those being the figures the last White Paper was based on - and the Common Weal proposed Scotland not having to pay pensions to balance the books, I wouldn't get your hopes up. The clue is the quiet dropping of demands for Full Fiscal Autonomy over the past few years. There isn't close enough savings to made from things like Trident to enable even a credible deficit to be run. The level of spending cuts / tax rises required will be of the level that only an IMF intervention normally brings - far, far beyond anything Osborne did over many years.
- matthewmacleod 10y ago
  'Cybernats' are not really representative of anything important, and I think it would be better to focus on the plans published going forward. I'm an ardent supporter of independence, but I don't doubt for a second that it will be difficult to build a strong economic case – in no small part because of the level of uncertainty we are currently dealing with. But I'm quietly confident that the independence movement will have learned a lot from the previous campaign and will avoid making mistakes it perhaps made in 2014.