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"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed." Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of mo

"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed." Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead - and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest. The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do - it will take years. An 'independent Scotland from an independent UK' is a huge pile of risk for people to stomach. With the UK faring economically well since Brexit (I know A50 has not been triggered, but investors have already priced in what they know, and A50 is a sure thing) - this is not the 'Brexit horror' story the indyreffers wanted. I would also point out that these things can fatigue on people, and that after a while, even soft Nationalists see the tactics of separatists. The SNP said the last referendum was a "once in a lifetime" event - and that was 4 years ago. 'The situation has changed' - surely - but nevertheless, it makes them look rather without credibility on the surface of it. It will be very interesting though.

fiftyacorn 10y ago
Spains issue was that Scotland was separating from an existing member state, and that had implications for them. If the UK isnt part of the EU then the implications and objections are reduced.
- edblarney 10y ago
  The political ramifications are identical - it's not a technical issue. Spain is desperately afraid of Catalonia departing - and the nuance of 'we left the EU before we joined' won't matter to the voters. Scottish separation and ascension to the EU would carve a crystal clear path for Catalonian separatists, and give massive wind to their sales. To the above commenters point - no gov will likely ever come out and say it, but there's no reason for Spain to support Scottish ascension, and every reason to be against it.
falsedan 10y ago
> Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU It's very likely that Scotland won't remain a EU member (as a successor of a EU member), but no government has said they would veto Scotland's application. The media mentions about this topic are vaguely-worded, to make it sound like it's about Scotland ever becoming an EU member (which it's extremely likely to achieve) versus avoiding having to apply (which is probably not going to happen).
pjc50 10y ago
> The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do - it will take years. That argument played a lot better before the Brexit vote. The choice is now between "definitely out of Europe, possibly on bad terms" versus "hopefully rejoining Europe, possibly with interim deal". Personally I expect Spain to accept an independent Scotland as leverage against Brexit Britain - note that this way Spain would retain the right to fish in Scottish waters. But all of these are "forward-looking statements". Also the BBC asked a Spanish EPP representative directly if they would veto and he said no: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39236117 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-3923... > UK faring economically well since Brexit If a Labour government had lost 20% of the value of the £ along with threatening to expel financial services from London the news coverage would be rather different. I don't think it has all been priced in yet, because we don't know exactly how bad it's going to be. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/14/ftse-100-falters-pound-rises-125-investors-eye-uk-inflation/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/14/ftse-100-falt... (Also, note that polls are from before campaigning starts! I'd expect campaigning to move the needle somewhat, otherwise what's the point?)
- zigzigzag 10y ago
  The UK isn't "threatening to expel financial services from London". That is some quite astonishing reality reversal. The EU is threatening to legally force people to move to Europe from the UK if they want to continue selling services there. Neither the UK nor the financial services industry wants that, for obvious reasons. If it happens, it'll be the EU doing it, not a British government.
  - pjc50 10y ago
    .. but the British government is the one triggering Brexit. It's a one-player game of chicken. The UK government has had plenty of options to say they want to try to retain financial passporting. "Starting a chain of events which will likely lead to financial services having to move out of London", then.
PeterFBell 10y ago
I think it's a big change. The idea of Scotland leaving the UK was a non-starter when the UK was in the EU. The Spanish and other countries with separatist regions would never have allowed it. Now that the UK is leaving Europe (something the Scottish people did not vote to do), there is stll substantial risk in leaving the UK (which is a much bigger trading partner with Scotland than the EU) but also a great opportunity to attract all of the English companies with exposure to a hard Brexit - from financial services to manufacturing, this could be an awesome opportunity for Scotland should England push for a hard Brexit and be left trading on WTO rules with the applicable tarrifs.
matthewmacleod 10y ago
With the UK faring economically well since Brexit I think we'll need to wait and see on this one. A collapse in currency value has masked some of the longer-term issues that leaving the single market will raise. but nevertheless, it makes them look rather without credibility on the surface of it. I can't agree with this. The current Scottish government was elected with a manifesto indicating that a second referendum would held if Scotland was removed the EU.
drzaiusapelord 10y ago
> this is not the 'Brexit horror' story the indyreffers wanted. I think its going to kill a lot of people when they see 'Brexit horror' not materializing. The UK has a powerful economy (number 5 in the world) and as such can certainly work out beneficial trade deals alone. Its not a Greece-like mess that benefits from the Euro and the Euro's backers. Without the shared currency and having a land border with other EU nations, its questionable if the benefits are worth it. At least, they come with liabilities. I certainly see the various pro EU political argument at work here and many have validity, but the economic one is fairly weak sauce. If anything, the UK has a stronger negotiation position as its own entity, assuming they play their cards right. If Scotland wants to go independent then fine, but using brexit as an excuse is very questionable. >even soft Nationalists see the tactics of separatists. I wonder how many separatists are being honeydicked by Russia. Russia has been funding separatists and far-right political parties in the West for its own gain for quite some time now. Perhaps people are starting to see through their ultra-tailored Facbook newsfeed, hysterical yellow journalism, legitimately fake news, and other biased media. I suspect the Trump win the US is showing people that yes, an electorate can go crazy with outsiders and extremist policies, but that doesn't mean that's actually good for the electorate. Ignoring Spain's own separatist fears, the EU members probably are fairly wary of any separatist talk right now, especially after seeing what happened in Crimea, and don't want to encourage it and certainly don't want to signal that separatism is a quick way to EU membership. Not to mention NATO membership, are the Scots ready to invest 2% of their GDP into defense (nearby $4bn)? We've probably moved towards an anti-separatist attitude in the West for the foreseeable future due to recent events. According to the guardian, the yes/no spread is the same was it was in 2014, so the idea that Scotland has become more separatist is questionable: Between August and December last year we polled over 3,000 Scottish adults and found yes to Scottish independence on 46% and no on 54% – just a fraction different from the result two years earlier. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/shift-scottish-independence-yougov-nicola-sturgeon-balancing-act https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/shift-...
- pjc50 10y ago
  > UK has a powerful economy (number 5 in the world) Not 5th any more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4056296/India-overtakes-Britain-world-s-sixth-largest-economy-earth-planning-send-130-million-aid-end-2018.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4056296/India-overta... (yes the mail is unreliable but I thought I'd pick the most Brexity source)

fiftyacorn 10y ago

Spains issue was that Scotland was separating from an existing member state, and that had implications for them. If the UK isnt part of the EU then the implications and objections are reduced.

edblarney 10y ago
The political ramifications are identical - it's not a technical issue. Spain is desperately afraid of Catalonia departing - and the nuance of 'we left the EU before we joined' won't matter to the voters. Scottish separation and ascension to the EU would carve a crystal clear path for Catalonian separatists, and give massive wind to their sales. To the above commenters point - no gov will likely ever come out and say it, but there's no reason for Spain to support Scottish ascension, and every reason to be against it.

falsedan 10y ago

> Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU It's very likely that Scotland won't remain a EU member (as a successor of a EU member), but no government has said they would veto Scotland's application. The media mentions about this topic are vaguely-worded, to make it sound like it's about Scotland ever becoming an EU member (which it's extremely likely to achieve) versus avoiding having to apply (which is probably not going to happen).

pjc50 10y ago

> The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do - it will take years. That argument played a lot better before the Brexit vote. The choice is now between "definitely out of Europe, possibly on bad terms" versus "hopefully rejoining Europe, possibly with interim deal". Personally I expect Spain to accept an independent Scotland as leverage against Brexit Britain - note that this way Spain would retain the right to fish in Scottish waters. But all of these are "forward-looking statements". Also the BBC asked a Spanish EPP representative directly if they would veto and he said no: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39236117 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-3923... > UK faring economically well since Brexit If a Labour government had lost 20% of the value of the £ along with threatening to expel financial services from London the news coverage would be rather different. I don't think it has all been priced in yet, because we don't know exactly how bad it's going to be. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/14/ftse-100-falters-pound-rises-125-investors-eye-uk-inflation/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/14/ftse-100-falt... (Also, note that polls are from before campaigning starts! I'd expect campaigning to move the needle somewhat, otherwise what's the point?)

zigzigzag 10y ago
The UK isn't "threatening to expel financial services from London". That is some quite astonishing reality reversal. The EU is threatening to legally force people to move to Europe from the UK if they want to continue selling services there. Neither the UK nor the financial services industry wants that, for obvious reasons. If it happens, it'll be the EU doing it, not a British government.
- pjc50 10y ago
  .. but the British government is the one triggering Brexit. It's a one-player game of chicken. The UK government has had plenty of options to say they want to try to retain financial passporting. "Starting a chain of events which will likely lead to financial services having to move out of London", then.

PeterFBell 10y ago

I think it's a big change. The idea of Scotland leaving the UK was a non-starter when the UK was in the EU. The Spanish and other countries with separatist regions would never have allowed it. Now that the UK is leaving Europe (something the Scottish people did not vote to do), there is stll substantial risk in leaving the UK (which is a much bigger trading partner with Scotland than the EU) but also a great opportunity to attract all of the English companies with exposure to a hard Brexit - from financial services to manufacturing, this could be an awesome opportunity for Scotland should England push for a hard Brexit and be left trading on WTO rules with the applicable tarrifs.

matthewmacleod 10y ago

With the UK faring economically well since Brexit I think we'll need to wait and see on this one. A collapse in currency value has masked some of the longer-term issues that leaving the single market will raise. but nevertheless, it makes them look rather without credibility on the surface of it. I can't agree with this. The current Scottish government was elected with a manifesto indicating that a second referendum would held if Scotland was removed the EU.

drzaiusapelord 10y ago

> this is not the 'Brexit horror' story the indyreffers wanted. I think its going to kill a lot of people when they see 'Brexit horror' not materializing. The UK has a powerful economy (number 5 in the world) and as such can certainly work out beneficial trade deals alone. Its not a Greece-like mess that benefits from the Euro and the Euro's backers. Without the shared currency and having a land border with other EU nations, its questionable if the benefits are worth it. At least, they come with liabilities. I certainly see the various pro EU political argument at work here and many have validity, but the economic one is fairly weak sauce. If anything, the UK has a stronger negotiation position as its own entity, assuming they play their cards right. If Scotland wants to go independent then fine, but using brexit as an excuse is very questionable. >even soft Nationalists see the tactics of separatists. I wonder how many separatists are being honeydicked by Russia. Russia has been funding separatists and far-right political parties in the West for its own gain for quite some time now. Perhaps people are starting to see through their ultra-tailored Facbook newsfeed, hysterical yellow journalism, legitimately fake news, and other biased media. I suspect the Trump win the US is showing people that yes, an electorate can go crazy with outsiders and extremist policies, but that doesn't mean that's actually good for the electorate. Ignoring Spain's own separatist fears, the EU members probably are fairly wary of any separatist talk right now, especially after seeing what happened in Crimea, and don't want to encourage it and certainly don't want to signal that separatism is a quick way to EU membership. Not to mention NATO membership, are the Scots ready to invest 2% of their GDP into defense (nearby $4bn)? We've probably moved towards an anti-separatist attitude in the West for the foreseeable future due to recent events. According to the guardian, the yes/no spread is the same was it was in 2014, so the idea that Scotland has become more separatist is questionable: Between August and December last year we polled over 3,000 Scottish adults and found yes to Scottish independence on 46% and no on 54% – just a fraction different from the result two years earlier. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/shift-scottish-independence-yougov-nicola-sturgeon-balancing-act https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/shift-...

pjc50 10y ago
> UK has a powerful economy (number 5 in the world) Not 5th any more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4056296/India-overtakes-Britain-world-s-sixth-largest-economy-earth-planning-send-130-million-aid-end-2018.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4056296/India-overta... (yes the mail is unreliable but I thought I'd pick the most Brexity source)