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The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be f

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currency will be a central issue (if anybody other than the SNP can be bothered to campaign - the Westminster Government will have their hands full with brexit negotiations, so I doubt Scotland's independence will be top of their agenda)

aetherson 10y ago
While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. The Euro seems like a very close substitute to the Pound. They're both strong, largely un-inflated currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control.
- RobertoG 10y ago
  "currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control" And that's the key thing. They would be changing masters, probably for the worst. As a former Euro supporter and now Euro sceptic I would recommend them to keep their lead in their own hand.
  - aetherson 10y ago
    But that doesn't seem to be what they want. I agree about being skeptical of being a small, relatively powerless country in a currency union with a much larger economy, but that's the case for them regardless of whether they're on the Pound Sterling or the Euro.
    - RobertoG 10y ago
      That's my point. They can't do nothing about being a small country. Their best option is have their own currency.
      - aetherson 10y ago
        But my point is that they don't want their own currency. Also, the EU won't let them have their own currency. So given that that's off the table, the Euro is as good as the Pound for them.
  - akoncius 10y ago
    it's a bit offtopic, but I'm curious why you changed your opinion and became euro sceptic. Could you explain ?
    - RobertoG 10y ago
      Sure, I started to read about economy, and I think I have now a good understanding about how the system works. That changed my mind. It's my believe now that my country just give away a very important part of their sovereignty (maybe the most important) to entities that have not our best interest in mind. I would not be against the Euro if I though that the people in charge is on my side. As an example (even if I'm not greek), we have seen the ECB just closing the Greece bank system when they are supposed to protect it. For anyone interested, there are some discussion now about the legality of that movement: https://diem25.org/thegreekfiles/ https://diem25.org/thegreekfiles/
- k-mcgrady 10y ago
  >> While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. I've always heard the argument that things are more expensive in the Euro. I know people in countries where they switched to the Euro and salaries remained the same while prices of goods went up. I'm not sure why this happens (or even if it's true) but it's a reason a lot of people are against losing the pound.
  - aetherson 10y ago
    It seems way more likely to have been the case in economies that were previously on a weak currency (like, say, Italy) than ones on a strong one (like, say, Scotland).
  - jpetso 10y ago
    My Grandma was saying this a lot. With some economic headwinds and constant (but not outsized) inflation comparing against a nostalgia currency that stopped inflating years ago, it's exceedingly easy to blame the Euro for making things more expensive. Adopting it often makes central bank policy more challenging. An outright "Euro makes goods more expensive" statement is an oversimplification though, don't take it at face value and always ask for objective inflation data relating to the particular country in question.
pjc50 10y ago
The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden are the members of the EU which have not joined the Euro because they don't meet the convergence criteria. (My personal preference is to ditch the silly "shared" pound idea but define a Scottish Pound pegged to the GBP and using the existing notes as a transitional currency. Much as Ireland did.)
- andy_ppp 10y ago
  I think the point is the spiteful UK government would deliberately stop Scotland keeping the pound.
  - vidarh 10y ago
    They can't stop Scotland from keeping the pound. They can stop Scotland from issuing its own notes valid in the remaining parts of the UK, but there is no way for the UK government to unilaterally decide that Scottish businesses and persons can't use GBP - they will have no jurisdiction over them if Scotland becomes independent.
    - londons_explore 10y ago
      There are serious disadvantages to using someone elses currency though. The scottish government would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control.
      - pjc50 10y ago
        > would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control Do you mean "monetary control"? What do you mean by "strongly discourage"? Forced by whom, or by circumstances?
Jonnax 10y ago
I'm presuming to the public the currency debate will be fought by politicians on more of an emotional level for example romanticising the Pound. On the other side graphs of the Pound dropping in value after the referendum results is also quite powerful especially if the SNP frame it as leaving a sinking ship.
edblarney 10y ago
"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed." Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead - and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest. The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do - it will take years. An 'independent Scotland from an independent UK' is a huge pile of risk for people to stomach. With the UK faring economically well since Brexit (I know A50 has not been triggered, but investors have already priced in what they know, and A50 is a sure thing) - this is not the 'Brexit horror' story the indyreffers wanted. I would also point out that these things can fatigue on people, and that after a while, even soft Nationalists see the tactics of separatists. The SNP said the last referendum was a "once in a lifetime" event - and that was 4 years ago. 'The situation has changed' - surely - but nevertheless, it makes them look rather without credibility on the surface of it. It will be very interesting though.
- fiftyacorn 10y ago
  Spains issue was that Scotland was separating from an existing member state, and that had implications for them. If the UK isnt part of the EU then the implications and objections are reduced.
  - edblarney 10y ago
    The political ramifications are identical - it's not a technical issue. Spain is desperately afraid of Catalonia departing - and the nuance of 'we left the EU before we joined' won't matter to the voters. Scottish separation and ascension to the EU would carve a crystal clear path for Catalonian separatists, and give massive wind to their sales. To the above commenters point - no gov will likely ever come out and say it, but there's no reason for Spain to support Scottish ascension, and every reason to be against it.
- falsedan 10y ago
  > Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU It's very likely that Scotland won't remain a EU member (as a successor of a EU member), but no government has said they would veto Scotland's application. The media mentions about this topic are vaguely-worded, to make it sound like it's about Scotland ever becoming an EU member (which it's extremely likely to achieve) versus avoiding having to apply (which is probably not going to happen).
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a_name 10y ago
However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia? Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial
krona 10y ago
Furthermore, given the 99% fall in oil revenue since the previous referendum, the Union dividend (£9bn / year) and a deficit of 10% GDP, and state aid rules within the EU, the economic case for independence has dwindled, to put it mildly. Politically, the case for independence is on the downside; both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have higher net satisfaction rates than Sturgeon in Scotland, and the likelihood of a general election before EU exit is getting higher every day, but for other reasons. Peak Sturgeon has come 2 years too soon.
- Someone1234 10y ago
  > both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson higher net satisfaction rates higher than Sturgeon In Scotland? I'm extremely skeptical.
  - falsedan 10y ago
    They must have meant 'in all of UK' by 'net'. In Scotland, impossible!
    - Someone1234 10y ago
      I was wondering if that's what they meant. But if they did it is an absurd statistic given that only Scotland gets to vote in their own referendum.
  - krona 10y ago
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ruth-davidson-overtakes-nicola-sturgeon-in-new-opinion-poll-1-4231923 http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ruth-davidson-overtake... From mid-september 2016. Couldn't find a more recent poll.
    - JamesMcMinn 10y ago
      It's probably worth noting that the Scotsman has historically backed the Union and their audience are very pro-union, and generally pro conservative. As I understand it, the poll which they based that article on didn't even ask the same question for each of the leaders, so the final results can't be seriously compared.

aetherson 10y ago

While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. The Euro seems like a very close substitute to the Pound. They're both strong, largely un-inflated currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control.

RobertoG 10y ago
"currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control" And that's the key thing. They would be changing masters, probably for the worst. As a former Euro supporter and now Euro sceptic I would recommend them to keep their lead in their own hand.
- aetherson 10y ago
  But that doesn't seem to be what they want. I agree about being skeptical of being a small, relatively powerless country in a currency union with a much larger economy, but that's the case for them regardless of whether they're on the Pound Sterling or the Euro.
  - RobertoG 10y ago
    That's my point. They can't do nothing about being a small country. Their best option is have their own currency.
    - aetherson 10y ago
      But my point is that they don't want their own currency. Also, the EU won't let them have their own currency. So given that that's off the table, the Euro is as good as the Pound for them.
- akoncius 10y ago
  it's a bit offtopic, but I'm curious why you changed your opinion and became euro sceptic. Could you explain ?
  - RobertoG 10y ago
    Sure, I started to read about economy, and I think I have now a good understanding about how the system works. That changed my mind. It's my believe now that my country just give away a very important part of their sovereignty (maybe the most important) to entities that have not our best interest in mind. I would not be against the Euro if I though that the people in charge is on my side. As an example (even if I'm not greek), we have seen the ECB just closing the Greece bank system when they are supposed to protect it. For anyone interested, there are some discussion now about the legality of that movement: https://diem25.org/thegreekfiles/ https://diem25.org/thegreekfiles/
k-mcgrady 10y ago
>> While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. I've always heard the argument that things are more expensive in the Euro. I know people in countries where they switched to the Euro and salaries remained the same while prices of goods went up. I'm not sure why this happens (or even if it's true) but it's a reason a lot of people are against losing the pound.
- aetherson 10y ago
  It seems way more likely to have been the case in economies that were previously on a weak currency (like, say, Italy) than ones on a strong one (like, say, Scotland).
- jpetso 10y ago
  My Grandma was saying this a lot. With some economic headwinds and constant (but not outsized) inflation comparing against a nostalgia currency that stopped inflating years ago, it's exceedingly easy to blame the Euro for making things more expensive. Adopting it often makes central bank policy more challenging. An outright "Euro makes goods more expensive" statement is an oversimplification though, don't take it at face value and always ask for objective inflation data relating to the particular country in question.

pjc50 10y ago

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden are the members of the EU which have not joined the Euro because they don't meet the convergence criteria. (My personal preference is to ditch the silly "shared" pound idea but define a Scottish Pound pegged to the GBP and using the existing notes as a transitional currency. Much as Ireland did.)

andy_ppp 10y ago
I think the point is the spiteful UK government would deliberately stop Scotland keeping the pound.
- vidarh 10y ago
  They can't stop Scotland from keeping the pound. They can stop Scotland from issuing its own notes valid in the remaining parts of the UK, but there is no way for the UK government to unilaterally decide that Scottish businesses and persons can't use GBP - they will have no jurisdiction over them if Scotland becomes independent.
  - londons_explore 10y ago
    There are serious disadvantages to using someone elses currency though. The scottish government would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control.
    - pjc50 10y ago
      > would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control Do you mean "monetary control"? What do you mean by "strongly discourage"? Forced by whom, or by circumstances?

Jonnax 10y ago

I'm presuming to the public the currency debate will be fought by politicians on more of an emotional level for example romanticising the Pound. On the other side graphs of the Pound dropping in value after the referendum results is also quite powerful especially if the SNP frame it as leaving a sinking ship.

edblarney 10y ago

"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed." Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead - and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest. The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do - it will take years. An 'independent Scotland from an independent UK' is a huge pile of risk for people to stomach. With the UK faring economically well since Brexit (I know A50 has not been triggered, but investors have already priced in what they know, and A50 is a sure thing) - this is not the 'Brexit horror' story the indyreffers wanted. I would also point out that these things can fatigue on people, and that after a while, even soft Nationalists see the tactics of separatists. The SNP said the last referendum was a "once in a lifetime" event - and that was 4 years ago. 'The situation has changed' - surely - but nevertheless, it makes them look rather without credibility on the surface of it. It will be very interesting though.

fiftyacorn 10y ago
Spains issue was that Scotland was separating from an existing member state, and that had implications for them. If the UK isnt part of the EU then the implications and objections are reduced.
- edblarney 10y ago
  The political ramifications are identical - it's not a technical issue. Spain is desperately afraid of Catalonia departing - and the nuance of 'we left the EU before we joined' won't matter to the voters. Scottish separation and ascension to the EU would carve a crystal clear path for Catalonian separatists, and give massive wind to their sales. To the above commenters point - no gov will likely ever come out and say it, but there's no reason for Spain to support Scottish ascension, and every reason to be against it.
falsedan 10y ago
> Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU It's very likely that Scotland won't remain a EU member (as a successor of a EU member), but no government has said they would veto Scotland's application. The media mentions about this topic are vaguely-worded, to make it sound like it's about Scotland ever becoming an EU member (which it's extremely likely to achieve) versus avoiding having to apply (which is probably not going to happen).

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

a_name 10y ago

However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia? Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial

krona 10y ago

Furthermore, given the 99% fall in oil revenue since the previous referendum, the Union dividend (£9bn / year) and a deficit of 10% GDP, and state aid rules within the EU, the economic case for independence has dwindled, to put it mildly. Politically, the case for independence is on the downside; both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have higher net satisfaction rates than Sturgeon in Scotland, and the likelihood of a general election before EU exit is getting higher every day, but for other reasons. Peak Sturgeon has come 2 years too soon.

Someone1234 10y ago
> both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson higher net satisfaction rates higher than Sturgeon In Scotland? I'm extremely skeptical.
- falsedan 10y ago
  They must have meant 'in all of UK' by 'net'. In Scotland, impossible!
  - Someone1234 10y ago
    I was wondering if that's what they meant. But if they did it is an absurd statistic given that only Scotland gets to vote in their own referendum.
- krona 10y ago
  http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ruth-davidson-overtakes-nicola-sturgeon-in-new-opinion-poll-1-4231923 http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ruth-davidson-overtake... From mid-september 2016. Couldn't find a more recent poll.
  - JamesMcMinn 10y ago
    It's probably worth noting that the Scotsman has historically backed the Union and their audience are very pro-union, and generally pro conservative. As I understand it, the poll which they based that article on didn't even ask the same question for each of the leaders, so the final results can't be seriously compared.