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Latest polls have Yes on 49%. The First Minister needs a big swing in the polls to Yes somewhere in the 6X% to get this to pass. https://www.theguardian.com/p

Latest polls have Yes on 49%. The First Minister needs a big swing in the polls to Yes somewhere in the 6X% to get this to pass. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-independence-why-second-vote-back-on-table-nicola-sturgeon https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-in...

danielsamuels 10y ago
I think when the Brexit deal is clearer the swing will effectively be an Scotland's approval rating of the deal.
- hackerboos 10y ago
  You're right. Calling a second referendum is the best way to apply pressure on the UK government. If the terms are unfavourable to Scotland, they will likely leave the union.
- Symbiote 10y ago
  It looks like that's pretty much the intention: > Speaking at her official Bute House residence in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said the people of Scotland must be offered a choice between a "hard Brexit" and becoming an independent country. Autumn 2018 - Spring 2019 also fits the two year negotiation timeline. 🇪🇺
pjc50 10y ago
Note that that's before the official start of campaigning. During the last campaign it went from something like 35% to 48%, partly due to how godawful the Unionist campaign was. I don't even know who they might get to do the No campaign who has any credibility in Scotland. The most sensible option is probably Ruth Davidson, so the most likely choice is someone like Blair McDougall. Labour will probably have to spend all their time trying to avoid letting Jeremy Corbyn say anything on the subject.
- arethuza 10y ago
  Too late - Corbyn already said that he is "absolutely fine" with a new referendum.
  - krona 10y ago
    He said entirely the opposite on the BBC this morning.
    - nailer 10y ago
      Yes, this is Corbyn. He was also simultaneously for and against Brexit.
      - deadbunny 10y ago
        Because it's a rather complex issue that was boiled down to in/out. I voted to remain in the end but I can certainly see a lot of the arguments from the leave folks.
        nailer 10y ago
        Sure but after evaluating, and deciding that one option is better, a leader should make that opinion known strongly. Cameron and Corbyn standing together and saying "this is dangerous and stupid" would have sent a very powerful message.
  - calibraxis 10y ago
    Read straight from him, not corporate or state media middlemen. https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn
  - hackerboos 10y ago
    Honestly Kezia is the bigger reliability. She was actually quoted as considering independence in the even of Brexit. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/01/kezia-dugdale-i-could-vote-for-independence-to-keep-scotland-in/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/01/kezia-dugdale-i-c...

danielsamuels 10y ago

I think when the Brexit deal is clearer the swing will effectively be an Scotland's approval rating of the deal.

hackerboos 10y ago
You're right. Calling a second referendum is the best way to apply pressure on the UK government. If the terms are unfavourable to Scotland, they will likely leave the union.
Symbiote 10y ago
It looks like that's pretty much the intention: > Speaking at her official Bute House residence in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said the people of Scotland must be offered a choice between a "hard Brexit" and becoming an independent country. Autumn 2018 - Spring 2019 also fits the two year negotiation timeline. 🇪🇺

pjc50 10y ago

Note that that's before the official start of campaigning. During the last campaign it went from something like 35% to 48%, partly due to how godawful the Unionist campaign was. I don't even know who they might get to do the No campaign who has any credibility in Scotland. The most sensible option is probably Ruth Davidson, so the most likely choice is someone like Blair McDougall. Labour will probably have to spend all their time trying to avoid letting Jeremy Corbyn say anything on the subject.

arethuza 10y ago
Too late - Corbyn already said that he is "absolutely fine" with a new referendum.
- krona 10y ago
  He said entirely the opposite on the BBC this morning.
  - nailer 10y ago
    Yes, this is Corbyn. He was also simultaneously for and against Brexit.
    - deadbunny 10y ago
      Because it's a rather complex issue that was boiled down to in/out. I voted to remain in the end but I can certainly see a lot of the arguments from the leave folks.
      - nailer 10y ago
        Sure but after evaluating, and deciding that one option is better, a leader should make that opinion known strongly. Cameron and Corbyn standing together and saying "this is dangerous and stupid" would have sent a very powerful message.
- calibraxis 10y ago
  Read straight from him, not corporate or state media middlemen. https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn
- hackerboos 10y ago
  Honestly Kezia is the bigger reliability. She was actually quoted as considering independence in the even of Brexit. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/01/kezia-dugdale-i-could-vote-for-independence-to-keep-scotland-in/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/01/kezia-dugdale-i-c...