3 ms·

i think that the idea that new jobs will always be created is a bit faith-based. historical precedent tends to be relatively narrow, centered on the use of hum

by abiox 10y ago

i think that the idea that new jobs will always be created is a bit faith-based. historical precedent tends to be relatively narrow, centered on the use of human physical labor. traditionally this has reduced the demand for such, and moved people into forms of work requiring some amount of thought and decision making that was not (yet) automatable. once automation begins aggressively competing with human thinking, decision making and creative efforts... we'll be facing a distinctly new challenge.

astrange 10y ago
Unless automation reduces the price of everything to free, we'll still have a market economy with supply and demand. Human demand is infinite, so the same forces that create jobs are still working. If everything is free, then we're post-scarcity and work doesn't matter anyway.
- Houshalter 10y ago
  There's no law of economics that says the value of human labor can't fall. When it falls below minimum wage you get unemployment. Similarly, when horses became less valuable then the cost of feeding them, they were taken to the glue factory.
  - astrange 10y ago
    It would be weird if human labor became worthless and that didn't lower the cost of living, though. If it doesn't balance itself out there is some automation owner out there capturing all the value, and we can just have them shot as counterrevolutionaries.
    - abiox 10y ago
      > It would be weird if human labor became worthless and that didn't lower the cost of living, though it's something that could very well happen in a depression and extensive structural unemployment. the problem with economic events is time. most simple models and equations don't "balance out" instantaneously, so to speak, due to the temporal lag between decisions and consequences. as businesses pursue better quarterly profits and shiny year-over-year results through automating the previously un-automatible and reducing the labor force, they risk creating unemployment but not zero or near-zero cost goods. the consequence of unemployment isn't felt immediately, which is why it can be very hard to stop things from spiraling out of control. but at some point purchasing power drops off, reducing sales... and on it goes. at some point we might reach "free shit made and delivered by robots", but there's a substantial, possible rather brutal gap between here and there.

by abiox 10y ago

astrange 10y ago

Unless automation reduces the price of everything to free, we'll still have a market economy with supply and demand. Human demand is infinite, so the same forces that create jobs are still working. If everything is free, then we're post-scarcity and work doesn't matter anyway.

Houshalter 10y ago
There's no law of economics that says the value of human labor can't fall. When it falls below minimum wage you get unemployment. Similarly, when horses became less valuable then the cost of feeding them, they were taken to the glue factory.
- astrange 10y ago
  It would be weird if human labor became worthless and that didn't lower the cost of living, though. If it doesn't balance itself out there is some automation owner out there capturing all the value, and we can just have them shot as counterrevolutionaries.
  - abiox 10y ago
    > It would be weird if human labor became worthless and that didn't lower the cost of living, though it's something that could very well happen in a depression and extensive structural unemployment. the problem with economic events is time. most simple models and equations don't "balance out" instantaneously, so to speak, due to the temporal lag between decisions and consequences. as businesses pursue better quarterly profits and shiny year-over-year results through automating the previously un-automatible and reducing the labor force, they risk creating unemployment but not zero or near-zero cost goods. the consequence of unemployment isn't felt immediately, which is why it can be very hard to stop things from spiraling out of control. but at some point purchasing power drops off, reducing sales... and on it goes. at some point we might reach "free shit made and delivered by robots", but there's a substantial, possible rather brutal gap between here and there.