4 ms·

Jed Kolko, former chief economist at Trulia, thinks stories like this are either exaggerated or wrong. His basic claim is that urban revival is limited to child

by dthal 10y ago

Jed Kolko, former chief economist at Trulia, thinks stories like this are either exaggerated or wrong. His basic claim is that urban revival is limited to childless professionals in their peak earning years. See [1], or any of his posts at [2] for the data and analysis. [1] http://jedkolko.com/2016/03/25/neighborhood-data-show-that-u-s-suburbanization-continues/ http://jedkolko.com/2016/03/25/neighborhood-data-show-that-u... [2] http://jedkolko.com/favorite-housing-posts/ http://jedkolko.com/favorite-housing-posts/

ghaff 10y ago
I was going to say that FiveThirtyEight has written similar pieces but I see it's the same person: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-millennials-are-less-urban-than-you-think/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-millennials-are-les... But right. A particular demographic of young professionals (which happens to align with both a lot of writers in these sorts of publications and tech workers) are moving to a handful of mostly coastal dense urban centers. I'm not sure how much of an outlier his interpretation of the data is or if you just don't hear a lot from his perspective because it doesn't support the urbanization narrative.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
mhneu 10y ago
Anecdotally, when I lived in an urban condo, half the building was empty-nesters -- couples who raised their kids in the suburbs then moved back to walkable smaller city apartments after the kids left the nest. The problem demographic is couples with kids. Our urban schools are bad, so they leave the city to find good schools. But people with no kids -- either before children or after they leave for college -- are living in cities.
- otoburb 10y ago
  >>The problem demographic is couples with kids. Our urban schools are bad, so they leave the city to find good schools. Good urban schools exist, but there aren't enough of them, hence there is intense competition to get into good urban schools. To your point, this then ends up driving more families away from dense urban centers.
  - wtbob 10y ago
    > Good urban schools exist, but there aren't enough of them It's not just that — due to desegregation (itself a good thing!) one can't ensure that one's kids will go to either a good school or one nearby. Parents want the best for their kids, and will do their best to ensure their kids' success (note that Mr. Obama's kids went to Sidwell Friends, not to a public DC school).
- hueving 10y ago
  It's not just schools. Public transportation (at least in the US) becomes miserable with several small children. Walking 1 mile single or as a couple is fine, but with toddlers it's an exhausting adventure just to get to the grocery store. High housing costs get even worse when you are paying for 5 people instead of 1 or 2. This multiplication factor also carries over to many other costs so a city block with artisanal restaurants and locally-grown grocery stores just doesn't cut it for family budgets.
  - CalRobert 10y ago
    The grocery store shouldn't be more than a thousand feet away if it's a city, though. In addition to density, diversity of use is important.
lkrubner 10y ago
This is related, the notion that urban areas are not as healthy as they were reported: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13854928 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13854928 That suggests a long-term downward trend.

by dthal 10y ago

ghaff 10y ago

I was going to say that FiveThirtyEight has written similar pieces but I see it's the same person: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-millennials-are-less-urban-than-you-think/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-millennials-are-les... But right. A particular demographic of young professionals (which happens to align with both a lot of writers in these sorts of publications and tech workers) are moving to a handful of mostly coastal dense urban centers. I'm not sure how much of an outlier his interpretation of the data is or if you just don't hear a lot from his perspective because it doesn't support the urbanization narrative.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

mhneu 10y ago

Anecdotally, when I lived in an urban condo, half the building was empty-nesters -- couples who raised their kids in the suburbs then moved back to walkable smaller city apartments after the kids left the nest. The problem demographic is couples with kids. Our urban schools are bad, so they leave the city to find good schools. But people with no kids -- either before children or after they leave for college -- are living in cities.

otoburb 10y ago
>>The problem demographic is couples with kids. Our urban schools are bad, so they leave the city to find good schools. Good urban schools exist, but there aren't enough of them, hence there is intense competition to get into good urban schools. To your point, this then ends up driving more families away from dense urban centers.
- wtbob 10y ago
  > Good urban schools exist, but there aren't enough of them It's not just that — due to desegregation (itself a good thing!) one can't ensure that one's kids will go to either a good school or one nearby. Parents want the best for their kids, and will do their best to ensure their kids' success (note that Mr. Obama's kids went to Sidwell Friends, not to a public DC school).
hueving 10y ago
It's not just schools. Public transportation (at least in the US) becomes miserable with several small children. Walking 1 mile single or as a couple is fine, but with toddlers it's an exhausting adventure just to get to the grocery store. High housing costs get even worse when you are paying for 5 people instead of 1 or 2. This multiplication factor also carries over to many other costs so a city block with artisanal restaurants and locally-grown grocery stores just doesn't cut it for family budgets.
- CalRobert 10y ago
  The grocery store shouldn't be more than a thousand feet away if it's a city, though. In addition to density, diversity of use is important.

lkrubner 10y ago

This is related, the notion that urban areas are not as healthy as they were reported: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13854928 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13854928 That suggests a long-term downward trend.