3 ms·

"They're the tip of a spear with a rotting shaft" The west also doesn't have immense societal problems? Probably not a great idea to disregard the strength of

by mythrwy 10y ago

"They're the tip of a spear with a rotting shaft" The west also doesn't have immense societal problems? Probably not a great idea to disregard the strength of a countries military/intelligence services because it has social issues. Unless the social issues are serious enough they are going to collapse the underlying support for the entire military/intelligence infrastructure. Which I don't see being the case in Russia any more than in the west. My "uninformed" opinion is that the CIA is largely succumbing to bureaucratic rot. Which eventually happens to most large organizations. Particularly those who have managed to remove themselves from effective oversight because "top secret".

deleted 10y ago
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leroy_masochist 10y ago
Spend some time in Russia (outside of the nice parts of the big cities) and you might understand what I mean. I do actually think that the diminishing quality of life there constitutes a threat to support for their government, including its intel services. Just my opinion, but one based on lived experience.
- mythrwy 10y ago
  Spend some time in rural Missouri or podunk rust belt USA. Or inner city Atlanta. I don't doubt much of Russia is an awful place. I've never been there and have zero desire to go. But from what I conceive, I just don't see the unpleasantness collapsing the system any faster than it is going to in the west. I appreciate your experience and thoughts. I just find middle kingdom VS unwashed barbarians who don't know enough to offer sacrifices to the right gods so how can they be smart enough to beat us? type thinking a bit dangerous. It's like a meeting with Microsoft executives laughing about a start up calling them potheads and basement dwellers, saying there are only 6 of them, and besides, we have a well funded task force working on that exact project who should have a preliminary report out in 9-12 months so no need for concern. Russian military/intelligence capabilities are obviously fairly formidable. I believe we should recognize this regardless of how much their citizens drink.
  - leroy_masochist 10y ago
    > Russian military/intelligence capabilities are obviously fairly formidable. I believe we should recognize this regardless of how much their citizens drink. True. But we should keep the overall geopolitical context in mind as we formulate policy. Russia/USSR having a formidable military/intel apparatus is not remotely the same threat when they no longer have the ability to be competitive in the "life is better under our system" debate. I think it would be a mistake to further dial up tensions with them based solely on a notional "black ops gap".
    - mythrwy 10y ago
      "I think it would be a mistake to further dial up tensions with them..." 100% agreement on that point.
  - mmjaa 10y ago
    > Or inner city Atlanta. Hell, you don't have to go far. Downtown-LA has plenty of human misery and poverty. Pretty much every major US city has a dystopian reality underneath its covers.
- mythrwy 10y ago
  One last point and I'll drop it. The argument "their economy is based on natural resources so it's weak" often gets made, but how is this type of economy intrinsically weaker or more susceptible to collapse than economies based on financial shell games? Never understood.
  - leroy_masochist 10y ago
    Because their tax revenue is closely tied to the price of oil, so when you budget the next 10 years on a forecasted price of $85/barrel and prices go down to 40-50 for a sustained period, you start getting a lot of starving pensioners freezing to death and/or freezing pensioners starving to death. Friends in provincial cities report it has been a really, really bad winter.
- mc32 10y ago
  People in Russia have memories of living on very little. Sure, the state provided you with essential sustenance but that was it. Russians throughout history are pretty used to having very little --having nothing is really nothing new to them, it'd be a return to what they know --which is probably one of the reasons sanctions don't work with Russia, what's tightening the belt one more time when you're used to living lean.

by mythrwy 10y ago

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

leroy_masochist 10y ago

Spend some time in Russia (outside of the nice parts of the big cities) and you might understand what I mean. I do actually think that the diminishing quality of life there constitutes a threat to support for their government, including its intel services. Just my opinion, but one based on lived experience.

mythrwy 10y ago
Spend some time in rural Missouri or podunk rust belt USA. Or inner city Atlanta. I don't doubt much of Russia is an awful place. I've never been there and have zero desire to go. But from what I conceive, I just don't see the unpleasantness collapsing the system any faster than it is going to in the west. I appreciate your experience and thoughts. I just find middle kingdom VS unwashed barbarians who don't know enough to offer sacrifices to the right gods so how can they be smart enough to beat us? type thinking a bit dangerous. It's like a meeting with Microsoft executives laughing about a start up calling them potheads and basement dwellers, saying there are only 6 of them, and besides, we have a well funded task force working on that exact project who should have a preliminary report out in 9-12 months so no need for concern. Russian military/intelligence capabilities are obviously fairly formidable. I believe we should recognize this regardless of how much their citizens drink.
- leroy_masochist 10y ago
  > Russian military/intelligence capabilities are obviously fairly formidable. I believe we should recognize this regardless of how much their citizens drink. True. But we should keep the overall geopolitical context in mind as we formulate policy. Russia/USSR having a formidable military/intel apparatus is not remotely the same threat when they no longer have the ability to be competitive in the "life is better under our system" debate. I think it would be a mistake to further dial up tensions with them based solely on a notional "black ops gap".
  - mythrwy 10y ago
    "I think it would be a mistake to further dial up tensions with them..." 100% agreement on that point.
- mmjaa 10y ago
  > Or inner city Atlanta. Hell, you don't have to go far. Downtown-LA has plenty of human misery and poverty. Pretty much every major US city has a dystopian reality underneath its covers.
mythrwy 10y ago
One last point and I'll drop it. The argument "their economy is based on natural resources so it's weak" often gets made, but how is this type of economy intrinsically weaker or more susceptible to collapse than economies based on financial shell games? Never understood.
- leroy_masochist 10y ago
  Because their tax revenue is closely tied to the price of oil, so when you budget the next 10 years on a forecasted price of $85/barrel and prices go down to 40-50 for a sustained period, you start getting a lot of starving pensioners freezing to death and/or freezing pensioners starving to death. Friends in provincial cities report it has been a really, really bad winter.
mc32 10y ago
People in Russia have memories of living on very little. Sure, the state provided you with essential sustenance but that was it. Russians throughout history are pretty used to having very little --having nothing is really nothing new to them, it'd be a return to what they know --which is probably one of the reasons sanctions don't work with Russia, what's tightening the belt one more time when you're used to living lean.