3 ms·

> This misses the point that all other types of engineering are regulated and licensed. Software is going to be regulated, licensed, and unionized within the n

> This misses the point that all other types of engineering are regulated and licensed. Software is going to be regulated, licensed, and unionized within the next ten years. The main reason it's not currently is because the best practices have historically changed every couple years due to Moore's Law, but there is about to be an extended slowdown that will give the industry the time it needs to get its act together.

frou_dh 10y ago
There is a constant: people using memory-unsafe languages, and then collective shrugging after the same things have happened over and over. Cloudbleed? Old news by now...
eru 10y ago
Care to take a bet on that? We just need to nail down some details: what jurisdiction(s) are we talking about? And what do you mean by licenced?: eg people without the licence won't be allowed to program computers? What odds are you offering? I am pretty confident, so I am happy to give you ten to one odds. Ie you pay me 1 dollar if no regulation&unionization happens, I pay you 10 if it does.
- Alex3917 10y ago
  Not interested in betting. > What jurisdiction(s) are we talking about? But to clarify, I'm talking about the U.S. > And what do you mean by licenced?: eg people without the licence won't be allowed to program computers? I think at least one of the big tech firms will be unionized within the next five years, with more following soon after. I think initially people already employed will be grandfathered in without any licensing requirements. But within a few years, I think folks are going to have to demonstrate basic knowledge of security principles in order to become union members. I don't think you will need a certification to work in the industry in the immediate future, but I think that tech employers will have a clear choice in choosing between union and non union employees.
  - eru 10y ago
    It's not about the money, it's about going on public record (and also about nailing down the odds you are willing to give). Interesting perspective you have. May I ask what makes you think so? Any current indications? What could go otherwise, and why? Do you see the beginning of these trends already? I would be very surprised if any of the big American big tech companies (say, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon or any other company that rises to similar status in the next five years) will get unionised like you say. There are already certificates available for employers to judge: be that university issued degrees or industry certificates like from Cisco or Microsoft. From all I can tell, the top employers don't care about them (and if anything, I have seen people scanning resumes react negatively to CVs claiming industry certifications). So current trends don't seem to point in your direction---as far as I can tell.
    - Alex3917 10y ago
      > May I ask what makes you think so? Any current indications? What could go otherwise, and why? Do you see the beginning of these trends already? Basically there are already people quietly working on this, and when those efforts surface it's going to become apparent that it's in everyone's best interests to go along. Unlike other industries, unionization in tech isn't going to be about negotiating salaries. Those are already good enough, and there is zero incentive for workers to organize around standardized wages. Instead, tech workers are going to negotiate for things like longer periods to exercise their options after changing employers, and ownership over their side projects. And in exchange, my prediction is that management is going to negotiate for labor to become more self-policing to lower their costs of hiring and risk exposure.
      - eru 10y ago
        Interesting. Any links to places that document these quiet efforts? (Somebody's blog post or so is perfectly fine.)

frou_dh 10y ago

There is a constant: people using memory-unsafe languages, and then collective shrugging after the same things have happened over and over. Cloudbleed? Old news by now...

eru 10y ago

Care to take a bet on that? We just need to nail down some details: what jurisdiction(s) are we talking about? And what do you mean by licenced?: eg people without the licence won't be allowed to program computers? What odds are you offering? I am pretty confident, so I am happy to give you ten to one odds. Ie you pay me 1 dollar if no regulation&unionization happens, I pay you 10 if it does.

Alex3917 10y ago
Not interested in betting. > What jurisdiction(s) are we talking about? But to clarify, I'm talking about the U.S. > And what do you mean by licenced?: eg people without the licence won't be allowed to program computers? I think at least one of the big tech firms will be unionized within the next five years, with more following soon after. I think initially people already employed will be grandfathered in without any licensing requirements. But within a few years, I think folks are going to have to demonstrate basic knowledge of security principles in order to become union members. I don't think you will need a certification to work in the industry in the immediate future, but I think that tech employers will have a clear choice in choosing between union and non union employees.
- eru 10y ago
  It's not about the money, it's about going on public record (and also about nailing down the odds you are willing to give). Interesting perspective you have. May I ask what makes you think so? Any current indications? What could go otherwise, and why? Do you see the beginning of these trends already? I would be very surprised if any of the big American big tech companies (say, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon or any other company that rises to similar status in the next five years) will get unionised like you say. There are already certificates available for employers to judge: be that university issued degrees or industry certificates like from Cisco or Microsoft. From all I can tell, the top employers don't care about them (and if anything, I have seen people scanning resumes react negatively to CVs claiming industry certifications). So current trends don't seem to point in your direction---as far as I can tell.
  - Alex3917 10y ago
    > May I ask what makes you think so? Any current indications? What could go otherwise, and why? Do you see the beginning of these trends already? Basically there are already people quietly working on this, and when those efforts surface it's going to become apparent that it's in everyone's best interests to go along. Unlike other industries, unionization in tech isn't going to be about negotiating salaries. Those are already good enough, and there is zero incentive for workers to organize around standardized wages. Instead, tech workers are going to negotiate for things like longer periods to exercise their options after changing employers, and ownership over their side projects. And in exchange, my prediction is that management is going to negotiate for labor to become more self-policing to lower their costs of hiring and risk exposure.
    - eru 10y ago
      Interesting. Any links to places that document these quiet efforts? (Somebody's blog post or so is perfectly fine.)