5 ms·

It bears pointing out that Russia's economy is 7% of the size of the U.S.'s and highly leveraged to natural resources, its population is shrinking, its industri

It bears pointing out that Russia's economy is 7% of the size of the U.S.'s and highly leveraged to natural resources, its population is shrinking, its industrial base is a shambles, and it's dealing with multiple societal crises (alcoholism, AIDS rate upswing, brain drain, etc). I'm not saying that to be a US-triumphalist; most Russians are great people. And the country has some great things going for it (STEM education, athletics, etc). My point is, during the Cold War, the US and its allies were engaged in a tooth-and-nail fight against the USSR and its allies to win a very public argument about whose system was better. This is no longer the case. People in some countries might wish their leader was a macho man like Putin, but nobody in their right mind wants their country to become more Russia-like. So, who cares if the Russian security services are best-in-class? Who cares if their cloak-and-dagger game is head and shoulders above that of our spies? They're the tip of a spear with a rotting shaft.

matt4077 10y ago
We're involved in a new "fight of the systems". Instead of Capitalism vs. Communism, it's Democracy vs Authoritarianism. There are a number of countries following the example set by Russia and China, such as Turkey, Hungary, the Philippines and Poland. Others are flirting with the idea, such as the US, France or South Africa. The problem is that these systems work a lot better than Communism ever did, especially if you look only at economic indicators, and only at the part of the population that doesn't complain.
- nisa 10y ago
  > Turkey, Hungary, the Philippines and Poland Not sure how exactly how exactly the CIA can help there.
  - matt4077 10y ago
    Me neither. But that didn't stop them from fighting the previous conflict, in mostly identical countries.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- AckSyn 10y ago
  > We're involved in a new "fight of the systems" [...] Democracy vs Authoritarianism The United States has been authoritarian for at least a half-century.
- zigzigzag 10y ago
  France? You appear to be describing any set of policies you don't like as "authoritarianism". There's nothing anti-authoritarian about the French politicians who are publicly committed to handing ever more power to the EU, for example.
  - mherkender 10y ago
    Le Pen is France flirting with authoritarianism.
rangibaby 10y ago
> They're the tip of a spear with a rotting shaft. "Kick the door in..." Russia seems to have learned their lesson from multiple failures in the past. Their mission in Syria was short and successful (e.g. more like Iraq 1991 than Iraq 2003). The only time the USSR could have had a chance to conquer the west was in the immediate aftermath of WWII, and Stalin was not interested in starting WWIII. Scared people will do what they are told. That's why we have nonsense like the TSA now.
- mythrwy 10y ago
  Agreed. Russia appears to have learned a thing or two. The collapse of the Soviet Union was in some ways an opportunity as it allowed rotting bureaucratic systems to be replaced with more effective ones. It's not like all the expertise and technology went away either.
mythrwy 10y ago
"They're the tip of a spear with a rotting shaft" The west also doesn't have immense societal problems? Probably not a great idea to disregard the strength of a countries military/intelligence services because it has social issues. Unless the social issues are serious enough they are going to collapse the underlying support for the entire military/intelligence infrastructure. Which I don't see being the case in Russia any more than in the west. My "uninformed" opinion is that the CIA is largely succumbing to bureaucratic rot. Which eventually happens to most large organizations. Particularly those who have managed to remove themselves from effective oversight because "top secret".
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- leroy_masochist 10y ago
  Spend some time in Russia (outside of the nice parts of the big cities) and you might understand what I mean. I do actually think that the diminishing quality of life there constitutes a threat to support for their government, including its intel services. Just my opinion, but one based on lived experience.
  - mythrwy 10y ago
    Spend some time in rural Missouri or podunk rust belt USA. Or inner city Atlanta. I don't doubt much of Russia is an awful place. I've never been there and have zero desire to go. But from what I conceive, I just don't see the unpleasantness collapsing the system any faster than it is going to in the west. I appreciate your experience and thoughts. I just find middle kingdom VS unwashed barbarians who don't know enough to offer sacrifices to the right gods so how can they be smart enough to beat us? type thinking a bit dangerous. It's like a meeting with Microsoft executives laughing about a start up calling them potheads and basement dwellers, saying there are only 6 of them, and besides, we have a well funded task force working on that exact project who should have a preliminary report out in 9-12 months so no need for concern. Russian military/intelligence capabilities are obviously fairly formidable. I believe we should recognize this regardless of how much their citizens drink.
twelve40 10y ago
> its population is shrinking Population of Russia has been growing for the last 8 years, where are you getting your numbers from? Are you sure you have a correct image of the country if you operate with such grossly inaccurate numbers?

matt4077 10y ago

We're involved in a new "fight of the systems". Instead of Capitalism vs. Communism, it's Democracy vs Authoritarianism. There are a number of countries following the example set by Russia and China, such as Turkey, Hungary, the Philippines and Poland. Others are flirting with the idea, such as the US, France or South Africa. The problem is that these systems work a lot better than Communism ever did, especially if you look only at economic indicators, and only at the part of the population that doesn't complain.

nisa 10y ago
> Turkey, Hungary, the Philippines and Poland Not sure how exactly how exactly the CIA can help there.
- matt4077 10y ago
  Me neither. But that didn't stop them from fighting the previous conflict, in mostly identical countries.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
AckSyn 10y ago
> We're involved in a new "fight of the systems" [...] Democracy vs Authoritarianism The United States has been authoritarian for at least a half-century.
zigzigzag 10y ago
France? You appear to be describing any set of policies you don't like as "authoritarianism". There's nothing anti-authoritarian about the French politicians who are publicly committed to handing ever more power to the EU, for example.
- mherkender 10y ago
  Le Pen is France flirting with authoritarianism.

rangibaby 10y ago

> They're the tip of a spear with a rotting shaft. "Kick the door in..." Russia seems to have learned their lesson from multiple failures in the past. Their mission in Syria was short and successful (e.g. more like Iraq 1991 than Iraq 2003). The only time the USSR could have had a chance to conquer the west was in the immediate aftermath of WWII, and Stalin was not interested in starting WWIII. Scared people will do what they are told. That's why we have nonsense like the TSA now.

mythrwy 10y ago
Agreed. Russia appears to have learned a thing or two. The collapse of the Soviet Union was in some ways an opportunity as it allowed rotting bureaucratic systems to be replaced with more effective ones. It's not like all the expertise and technology went away either.

mythrwy 10y ago

"They're the tip of a spear with a rotting shaft" The west also doesn't have immense societal problems? Probably not a great idea to disregard the strength of a countries military/intelligence services because it has social issues. Unless the social issues are serious enough they are going to collapse the underlying support for the entire military/intelligence infrastructure. Which I don't see being the case in Russia any more than in the west. My "uninformed" opinion is that the CIA is largely succumbing to bureaucratic rot. Which eventually happens to most large organizations. Particularly those who have managed to remove themselves from effective oversight because "top secret".

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
leroy_masochist 10y ago
Spend some time in Russia (outside of the nice parts of the big cities) and you might understand what I mean. I do actually think that the diminishing quality of life there constitutes a threat to support for their government, including its intel services. Just my opinion, but one based on lived experience.
- mythrwy 10y ago
  Spend some time in rural Missouri or podunk rust belt USA. Or inner city Atlanta. I don't doubt much of Russia is an awful place. I've never been there and have zero desire to go. But from what I conceive, I just don't see the unpleasantness collapsing the system any faster than it is going to in the west. I appreciate your experience and thoughts. I just find middle kingdom VS unwashed barbarians who don't know enough to offer sacrifices to the right gods so how can they be smart enough to beat us? type thinking a bit dangerous. It's like a meeting with Microsoft executives laughing about a start up calling them potheads and basement dwellers, saying there are only 6 of them, and besides, we have a well funded task force working on that exact project who should have a preliminary report out in 9-12 months so no need for concern. Russian military/intelligence capabilities are obviously fairly formidable. I believe we should recognize this regardless of how much their citizens drink.

twelve40 10y ago

> its population is shrinking Population of Russia has been growing for the last 8 years, where are you getting your numbers from? Are you sure you have a correct image of the country if you operate with such grossly inaccurate numbers?