That's just it, though: the long-term outlook is irrelevant. The relevant part is the difference between the long-term outlook and what actually happens in th

That's just it, though: the long-term outlook is irrelevant. The relevant part is the difference between the long-term outlook and what actually happens in the long-term. This is what speculative investment (which is what he's doing here) is all about: capitalizing on the difference between what is expected and what actually happens. This is also why non-professionals (like myself) should not make purely speculative investments. You really need to have a finger on the pulse of expectations, in addition to what's actually going on.