Your argument doesn't hold up. As you point out, most startups in the fund will turn out to be money losers. It therefore doesn't make sense to consider the opp

Your argument doesn't hold up. As you point out, most startups in the fund will turn out to be money losers. It therefore doesn't make sense to consider the opportunity cost of the $10m investment vs. only the unicorns but vs. the average return. An investment that returns more than the fund's overall target return is a winner. The opportunity cost is an investment in another company that will probably lose money, not a guaranteed unicorn.