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The source in that image from Tesla are extremely suspicious. A Google search for "IIT Takeshita" gives you only that image. Further research took me to this pa

The source in that image from Tesla are extremely suspicious. A Google search for "IIT Takeshita" gives you only that image. Further research took me to this page. http://www.iit.co.jp/ http://www.iit.co.jp/, where I got the plain text "I'm sorry. It is under construction. Please wait." By the way, your own sources contradict each other - even if you _do_ believe that image from Tesla, the Gigafactory's completed capacity is 35 GWh/yr. This blog post states the same [0]. The segment which is done is cool, but it is surrounded by construction equipment and I doubt it is producing very many cells. Finally, since I doubt you're in the battery industry, there are two very important numbers: production capacity and production. For example, 2014 worldwide production capacity was almost 30 GWh, but worldwide production was only 5.4 GWh [1]. This is due to a lot of factors, but ultimately only a fraction of manufacturing capacity is used at any given time. A lot of graphs that you see on blogs will conflate the two. [0] https://www.tesla.com/blog/battery-cell-production-begins-gigafactory https://www.tesla.com/blog/battery-cell-production-begins-gi... [1] http://evobsession.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/image-23-e1461122689735.jpg http://evobsession.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/image-23-e...

schiffern 10y ago
>The source in that image from Tesla are extremely suspicious. A Google search for "IIT Takeshita" gives you only that image. It's not easy to find, but I did some digging. Looks like an analysis of the global battery industry, with the 2013 version presented at the 2013 Battery Japan conference.[1] From other citations I found[2][3] it's clear the speaker is Hideo Takeshita, who in 2001 was the vice president of IIT (the Institute of Information Technology Ltd.)[4] and in 2014 was the president of a battery market research firm called B3 Corporation.[5] Sure the document isn't freely available online, but given the commercial nature of the content that hardly seems suspicious. >your own sources contradict each other Sorry, I should have been more clear. It gets very confusing since it's a moving target, and you can rarely tell who is using what source (and when that source is from). The original capacity announced in their blog post[6] on 2014-02-26 was 35 GWh/yr at the cell level and 50 GWh/yr at the pack level (importing 15 GWh/yr of cells).[7] That's what you're seeing on the chart. Later at the 2016 shareholder meeting on 2016-05-31, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that they were going to triple the final production capacity at the Nevada Gigafactory.[8] [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20130207162628/http://www.batteryjapan.jp/en/Home/ https://web.archive.org/web/20130207162628/http://www.batter... [2] http://www.sdle.co.il/AllSites/810/Assets/c%20pillot-avicenne.pdf#42 http://www.sdle.co.il/AllSites/810/Assets/c%20pillot-avicenn... (page 42) [3] http://www.avem.fr/docs/pdf/AvicenneDiapoXining.pdf#21 http://www.avem.fr/docs/pdf/AvicenneDiapoXining.pdf#21 (page 21) [4] http://electronicdesign.com/energy/li-ion-batteries-reach-higher-performance http://electronicdesign.com/energy/li-ion-batteries-reach-hi... [5] http://wardsauto.com/miscellaneous/battery-experts-seek-lower-costs-better-technology http://wardsauto.com/miscellaneous/battery-experts-seek-lowe... [6] https://www.tesla.com/blog/gigafactory5 https://www.tesla.com/blog/gigafactory5 [7] https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/g... [8] http://electrek.co/2016/05/31/tesla-triple-battery-output-gigafactory-1-150-gwh-elon-musk/ http://electrek.co/2016/05/31/tesla-triple-battery-output-gi...

schiffern 10y ago

>The source in that image from Tesla are extremely suspicious. A Google search for "IIT Takeshita" gives you only that image. It's not easy to find, but I did some digging. Looks like an analysis of the global battery industry, with the 2013 version presented at the 2013 Battery Japan conference.[1] From other citations I found[2][3] it's clear the speaker is Hideo Takeshita, who in 2001 was the vice president of IIT (the Institute of Information Technology Ltd.)[4] and in 2014 was the president of a battery market research firm called B3 Corporation.[5] Sure the document isn't freely available online, but given the commercial nature of the content that hardly seems suspicious. >your own sources contradict each other Sorry, I should have been more clear. It gets very confusing since it's a moving target, and you can rarely tell who is using what source (and when that source is from). The original capacity announced in their blog post[6] on 2014-02-26 was 35 GWh/yr at the cell level and 50 GWh/yr at the pack level (importing 15 GWh/yr of cells).[7] That's what you're seeing on the chart. Later at the 2016 shareholder meeting on 2016-05-31, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that they were going to triple the final production capacity at the Nevada Gigafactory.[8] [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20130207162628/http://www.batteryjapan.jp/en/Home/ https://web.archive.org/web/20130207162628/http://www.batter... [2] http://www.sdle.co.il/AllSites/810/Assets/c%20pillot-avicenne.pdf#42 http://www.sdle.co.il/AllSites/810/Assets/c%20pillot-avicenn... (page 42) [3] http://www.avem.fr/docs/pdf/AvicenneDiapoXining.pdf#21 http://www.avem.fr/docs/pdf/AvicenneDiapoXining.pdf#21 (page 21) [4] http://electronicdesign.com/energy/li-ion-batteries-reach-higher-performance http://electronicdesign.com/energy/li-ion-batteries-reach-hi... [5] http://wardsauto.com/miscellaneous/battery-experts-seek-lower-costs-better-technology http://wardsauto.com/miscellaneous/battery-experts-seek-lowe... [6] https://www.tesla.com/blog/gigafactory5 https://www.tesla.com/blog/gigafactory5 [7] https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/g... [8] http://electrek.co/2016/05/31/tesla-triple-battery-output-gigafactory-1-150-gwh-elon-musk/ http://electrek.co/2016/05/31/tesla-triple-battery-output-gi...