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One might quibble that the long term outlook of an oil company are perhaps not the best. Of course, they've got the alternative energy division, which had $5 b
by sbierwagen 16y ago
One might quibble that the long term outlook of an oil company are perhaps not the best.
Of course, they've got the alternative energy division, which had $5 billion in sales in 2008. Pity it operated at a net loss, costing BP one and a quarter billion dollars.
- brown9-2 16y agowell, "long term" as in next few years, not 50 years.
- sbierwagen 16y agoYour definition of long term is "the next few years"? Even so, the near future prospects of BP aren't terribly good either, what with the crashing price of oil, (good for us, bad for oil companies) the numerous civil lawsuits and (singular) criminal investigation resulting from the oil spill, and the prospect of a moratorium on offshore drilling, coupled with additional regulation.
- RyanMcGreal 16y agoThe more scarce oil gets, the more money oil companies will make selling what's left.
- amalcon 16y agoThat's just it, though: the long-term outlook is irrelevant. The relevant part is the difference between the long-term outlook and what actually happens in the long-term. This is what speculative investment (which is what he's doing here) is all about: capitalizing on the difference between what is expected and what actually happens. This is also why non-professionals (like myself) should not make purely speculative investments. You really need to have a finger on the pulse of expectations, in addition to what's actually going on.