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Not the OP but I don't believe you are very familiar with modern Japanese history. First, your point that they had a "miraculous track record" in the past mean

by sushid 10y ago

Not the OP but I don't believe you are very familiar with modern Japanese history. First, your point that they had a "miraculous track record" in the past means it's reasonable to be "hand-wavy" about the future is absurd. Are you familiar with the phrase "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance?" Would you say Germany or South Korea can implement any nationwide policy easily because they share a similar historical background as you've described? Second, Japan's miraculous growth had a lot to do with direct US intervention and the Korean War. The US created a Supreme Command of Allied Powers program directed by MacArthur that made a wide set of economic and political reforms. [0] And the Korean War essentially made Japan the de facto supply depot for the UN, driving a lot of US investment money there. [0] Third, Japan in the past had plenty of human capital and cheap labor. This is certainly not the case anymore. I'm not saying they're doomed, but their population pyramid is quiet different from post-WWII Japan. [1] [0] https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/japan-reconstruction https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/japan-reconst... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan

alphonsegaston 10y ago
I don't have to speculate about Germany because it's already happening there: https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2016-05-16/germany-just-got-almost-all-of-its-power-from-renewable-energy https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2016-05-16/germa... I'm quite familiar with the history of modern Japan and the US' role in establishing its prominence. It's what I studied as an undergrad, actually. And yes, the strength of their economies and technical standing, derived from this historical support, are precisely what put them in a good position to achieve this aim. It has allowed them to advance manufacturing technology to a far greater degree than the US, who let all of their expertise wither with offshoring (in part to assure alliances with client states). As such, Japan has a large, skilled manufacturing sector base that can tackle this undertaking. In addition, their resource constraints have created similar expertise in advancing energy efficiency and maintaining modern grid infrastructure, both key to making renewables successful. Japan was largely shunted down the path of nuclear energy because of US intervention in their energy sector. Now that enthusiasm for nuclear energy has largely cooled in the US, both because of its expense and a renewed emphasis on fossil fuels, Japan has greater freedom than ever to transition to renewables. They don't have fossil fuels and nuclear energy is more widely unpopular than it has ever been in the wake of Fukushima. As for the labor market, there a large issues with structural unemployment among young people which this transition could help address. And regardless, the Japanese government is more directly interventionist in their economy, such that were this change affected, big businesses would follow suit. The line between TEPCO and the Japanese government is already as blurry as blurry can be.

by sushid 10y ago

alphonsegaston 10y ago

I don't have to speculate about Germany because it's already happening there: https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2016-05-16/germany-just-got-almost-all-of-its-power-from-renewable-energy https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2016-05-16/germa... I'm quite familiar with the history of modern Japan and the US' role in establishing its prominence. It's what I studied as an undergrad, actually. And yes, the strength of their economies and technical standing, derived from this historical support, are precisely what put them in a good position to achieve this aim. It has allowed them to advance manufacturing technology to a far greater degree than the US, who let all of their expertise wither with offshoring (in part to assure alliances with client states). As such, Japan has a large, skilled manufacturing sector base that can tackle this undertaking. In addition, their resource constraints have created similar expertise in advancing energy efficiency and maintaining modern grid infrastructure, both key to making renewables successful. Japan was largely shunted down the path of nuclear energy because of US intervention in their energy sector. Now that enthusiasm for nuclear energy has largely cooled in the US, both because of its expense and a renewed emphasis on fossil fuels, Japan has greater freedom than ever to transition to renewables. They don't have fossil fuels and nuclear energy is more widely unpopular than it has ever been in the wake of Fukushima. As for the labor market, there a large issues with structural unemployment among young people which this transition could help address. And regardless, the Japanese government is more directly interventionist in their economy, such that were this change affected, big businesses would follow suit. The line between TEPCO and the Japanese government is already as blurry as blurry can be.