3 ms·
Not an answer to your question but semi-relatedly Scott Sumner had a post this week where he predicts that recessions will be significantly rarer in the future.
by harryh 10y ago
Not an answer to your question but semi-relatedly Scott Sumner had a post this week where he predicts that recessions will be significantly rarer in the future.
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=32350 http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=32350
It's interesting to think about.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- warcher 10y agoIt is interesting, but "this time it's different" is a song I have heard before. I am deeply disconcerted at extending the time between recessions; would much prefer shallower corrections more frequently.
- sytelus 10y agoThese predictions are pointless. Economy is not driven by extrapolating past charts, it's driven by outlier events. The thing about outlier events is that no one can predict what they would be, except that they are bound to happen. A magnitude 9 earthquake in Northwest, fraud in big company, scandal in administration, or war with Iran - all these can totally change economic outlook.
- harryh 10y agoHis assertion is that the Fed is now better at controlling the money supply to more quickly respond appropriately to outlier events. Recessions are always and everywhere a monetary phenomena.