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i agree with you that the logistics problem is incredibly hard but we may be disagreeing on whether instacart has cracked the problem (or even can). having talk
by clairity 10y ago
i agree with you that the logistics problem is incredibly hard but we may be disagreeing on whether instacart has cracked the problem (or even can). having talked to shoppers (instacart's workers) in the past, i don't believe they have solved the logistics challenge yet. their recent tips fiasco tells me that they're still gross margin negative and needed to fudge those revenue numbers into fitting with this valuation.
it's certainly possible that they have a credible story around how they get operationally profitable with the delivery business, but that's a margin-limited business that i don't think investors will get excited about. data and services are relatively high-margin businesses and that's why i think that's the play here.
but i agree that whoever solves the very hard last-mile logistics problem is going to be fabulously well-positioned (amazon, walmart, fedex, ups & uber seem to be the leading contenders). thinking that scale/volume will solve the problem is enticing, but so many companies have chased that holy grail only to fall short that i'm not sure that it isn't a mirage.